Wednesday, June 18, 2008

End of the World Part Deux

Michael Writes

Think about fusion and fission - opposite processes (creating bonds/breaking bonds) but both release energy. This one is somewhat circular - water to hydrogen to water - it certainly smacks of a perpetual motion machine - but not to worry, as you have read there are many losses in the system. No generation system is very efficient.

Think about nuclear reactors (or gas or coal) - we cause radioactive material to fission at a controlled pace which heats water flowing through a series of pipes which flashes to steam and expands which turns the blades of a turbine which causes a coil to rotate inside another coil which creates and collapses a magnetic field which causes electricity to flow in a wire. Think about all the energy losses in THAT chain. Yes we are a far far way from something that will be as universal as the gas car, but with any luck we'll get there before we run out of gas

And TRM Replies

I would think most informed people, and that includes those people who read this blog, understand about the inefficiencies of engines, and that includes hydrogen devices. My question concerned the relative efficiency of the three step process that the water car uses (water-> hydrogen->water) versus the two step process (hydrogen->water) of a car loaded with hydrogen. Which one is a more efficient system overall? Does the commercial process of creating the hydrogen gain efficiencies in scale? If your water car already has enough electricity to perform electrolysis, why not use that directly instead of losing the overall power through another step in the process. It seems the concept comes awfully close to that of a perpetual motion machine, and we all know that is impossible.


You can bet the oil companies will try to throttle a water car because there is no money for them there. On the other hand, they probably can more easily move into a hydrogen based economy because they currently have a distribution system in place. The same holds true for an electric powered vehicle, as I can see them trying to become a part of the electricity production cycle. But until those companies gain control of our water supplies, I don’t see them backing a water car. You don’t have to go to the local Exxon station to stick a garden hose into your gas tank.


What is certain is that we need to find reasonable alternative fuel sources quickly. Not only are petroleum products used for transportation, but they are also used for hundreds of products that our civilization depends upon.

Fuels

Further information: alternative fuel

* Ethane and other short-chain alkanes which are used as fuel
* Diesel fuel (petrodiesel)
* Fuel oils
* Gasoline
* Jet fuel
* Kerosene
* Liquid petroleum gas (LPG)
* Natural gas

Generally used in transportation, power plants and heating.


Other derivatives

Certain types of resultant hydrocarbons may be mixed with other non-hydrocarbons, to create other end products:

* Alkenes (olefins) which can be manufactured into plastics or other compounds
* Lubricants (produces light machine oils, motor oils, and greases, adding viscosity stabilizers as required).
* Wax, used in the packaging of frozen foods, among others.
* Sulfur or Sulfuric acid. These are a useful industrial materials. Sulfuric acid is usually prepared as the acid precursor oleum, a byproduct of sulfur removal from fuels.
* Bulk tar.
* Asphalt
* Petroleum coke, used in speciality carbon products or as solid fuel.
* Paraffin wax
* Aromatic petrochemicals to be used as precursors in other chemical production.


A partial list of products made from Petroleum (more than 6000 items)

One 42-gallon barrel of oil creates 19.4 gallons of gasoline. The rest (over half) is used to make things like:

Solvents
Diesel
Motor Oil
Bearing Grease
Ink
Floor Wax
Ballpoint Pens
Football Cleats
Upholstery
Sweaters
Boats
Insecticides
Bicycle Tires
Sports Car Bodies
Nail Polish
Fishing lures
Dresses
Tires
Golf Bags
Perfumes
Cassettes
Dishwasher
Tool Boxes
Shoe Polish
Motorcycle Helmet
Caulking
Petroleum Jelly
Transparent Tape
CD Player
Faucet Washers
Antiseptics
Clothesline
Curtains
Food Preservatives
Basketballs
Soap
Vitamin Capsules
Antihistamines
Purses
Shoes
Dashboards
Cortisone
Deodorant
Footballs
Putty
Dyes
Panty Hose
Refrigerant
Percolators
Life Jackets
Rubbing Alcohol
Insect Repellent
Oil Filters
Umbrellas
Yarn
Fertilizers
Hair Coloring
Roofing
Toilet Seats
Fishing Rods
Lipstick
Denture Adhesive
Linoleum
Ice Cube Trays
Synthetic Rubber
Speakers
Plastic Wood
Electric Blankets
Glycerin
Tennis Rackets
Rubber Cement
Fishing Boots
Dice
Nylon Rope
Candles
Trash Bags
House Paint
Water Pipes
Hand Lotion
Roller Skates
Surf Boards
Shampoo
Wheels
Paint Rollers
Shower Curtains
Guitar Strings
Luggage
Aspirin
Safety Glasses
Antifreeze
Football Helmets
Awnings
Eyeglasses
Clothes
Toothbrushes
Ice Chests
Footballs
Combs
CD's
Paint Brushes
Detergents
Vaporizers
Balloons
Gasoline


Well, you get the idea.

It makes no sense to burn this valuable resource.

All in all, it is pretty remarkable that we are so dependent on oil. We really became dependent on oil beginning in the late 1800, and then our use exploded in the early 1900s. So we are talking about a revolution that is between 100 years and 150 years old, depending on how you are counting. This is an incredibly short period of time in the history of mankind.Take a look at this chronology of petroleum and this Wikipedia entry.


Some other thoughts on the subject. Some of the more radical proponents of alternative fuels maintain that we should not permit offshore drilling. Their catchy phrase is “this is a crisis we can’t drill our way out of.” That may be true, but perhaps we can drill our way through to an alternative fuel age. If we can make the transition to another fuel, or fuels, with a more limited amount of social disruption, I think we need to seriously consider this course of action. Then there is the case to be made for coal, our most plentiful energy resource. Can there be a clean-coal process that does not pollute? And what of its costs?

Wind? Solar? The former creates environmental pollution of other types, such s noise, and wind farms aren’t the most attractive things. But I have seen them in Oklahoma and it makes sense there. Solar is another developing technology that will be used in various ways, from huge solar farms to smaller solar panels and heaters for individual homes. Finally, what about nuclear power? Is this a reasonable alternative? Can we harness the power of nuclear materials without creating hazardous waste that lasts for tens of thousands of years.

I believe the answer lies in a mix of these possible solutions: wind, solar and hydro power where they are practical, nuclear where needed, and hydrogen where possible.

This truly is the end of the world as we know it. But it is not the end of the world.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

A New Car!!

A couple of things bothered me about that posting regarding the car that runs on water. I just don't think the physics make sense. Look at the steps: take water, apply electric charge, perform electrolysis, capture hydrogen to mix with air in an electrolysis reaction. The efficiency of this process versus just fueling a car with hydrogen and going through the electrolysis process escapes me. Take a look at this Wikipedia entry on the subject:

Water electrolysis does not convert 100% of the electrical energy into the chemical energy of hydrogen. The process requires more extreme potentials than what would be expected based on the cell's total reversible reduction potentials. This excess potential accounts for various forms of overpotential by which the extra energy is eventually lost as heat. For a well designed cell the largest overpotential is the reaction overpotential for the four electron oxidation of water to oxygen at the anode. An effective electrocatalyst to facilitate this reaction has not been developed. Platinum alloys are the default state of the art for this oxidation. The reverse reaction, the reduction of oxygen to water, is responsible for the greatest loss of efficiency in fuel cells. Developing a cheap effective electrocatalyst for this reaction would be a great advance.


So, I just don't get this one and it sounds like phony physics. If someone can explain it to me, I would appreciate it.


Then there was the story of the new Honda fuel cell car. It was a great story. A non-polluting car .The car for the 21st Century! The I found this story in the New York Times.

Honda will make just 200 of the futuristic vehicles over the next three years, but said it eventually planned to increase production volumes, especially as hydrogen filling stations became more common. On Monday, Honda announced its first five customers, who included the actress Jamie Lee Curtis.


and then this:

Mr. Fukui said the cars cost several hundred thousand dollars each to produce, though he said that should drop below $100,000 (emphasis TRM) in less than a decade as production volumes increase.


This car is not the modern equivalent of Henry Ford's Model T, which the average guy could afford. This is for the ultra-rich and the celebrity class.

If I pay $100,000 for a vehicle, it had better have wings!

Monday, June 16, 2008

It's the End of thte World as we Know it

Cheap petroleum meant cheap gas which meant cars and traveling and suburbs. The Levittowns of the United States would not be possible without the car.

The fact is simple that our society is going to go through a cast upheaval as gasoline because as expensive as bottled water.

Cars will be smaller, slower, and cleaner, like this new one from Honda that runs on hydrogen based fuel cells. Or how about this one that reported runs on ..water!

Of course. no gas means no suburbs, because how are you going to get around without at least one car and an SUV in the garage? People will be moving back to the walkable,high density, public-transport-available cities. At least those who can afford to. While the poor folks, well, they might just live in those devalued McMansions that will hit the market in abundance as a result of a combinations of factors, including the price of gas and the mortgage melt-down. CNN ran with this story.

So, cinch those seat belts a little tighter because it's going to be a bumpy flight for a while as, after 150 years, we turn our economy away from petroleum to.. something, or some things else.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

CYBERWAR

Warfare in cyberspace? Game on!
Yesterday, Representative Frank Wolf (R-VA) gave a speech on the House floor in which he admitted several of the computers in his office had been compromised, with the attacks originating in China. Since then, at least two other Congressmen have told similar tales. Wolf's speech, however, was the most specific, in that he suggested he knows what the hackers were after: files on Chinese dissidents he maintains as part of his human rights efforts


Al-Queda already uses the internet to communicate , and recruit. The Washington Post had this story in 2005.
In the snow-draped mountains near Jalalabad in November 2001, as the Taliban collapsed and al Qaeda lost its Afghan sanctuary, Osama bin Laden biographer Hamid Mir watched "every second al Qaeda member carrying a laptop computer along with a Kalashnikov" as they prepared to scatter into hiding and exile. On the screens were photographs of Sept. 11 hijacker Mohamed Atta.


And the U.S. Air Force has reactivated 'The Mighty 8th", to fight in a new environment here and here.

Fill in the Blanks

Here is a really fun site. If you want to play expert pol, pick the winning combinations for your favorite presidential candidate. Need Florida or Ohio? See how a win there, or any other state, effects the outcome of the election.

Great fun for the whole family, especially if your name is Rove or MacAulife.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Save Your Newspaper!

It's a simple fact: most newspapers are deep in the red and as a result , they are closing down or severely trimming their all-important news gathering operations.

The New York Times reports on changes coming to the Los Angeles Times under its new owner, businessman Sam Zell. How best to describe the new Los Angeles Times? How about a newspaper with no news?

Healthy newspapers perform important services in our democracy. They keep government in check. They keep citizens informed. They advocate.

Bloggers depend on their news gathering ability.

So do yourself and your country a favor and get a subscription or two to some good newspapers today!

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Grace versus Gauche con't..

From "Murk Water"

Well-expressed! Hillary has shown her true colors many times, but seldom as brazenly as last week. I like to tell myself that enough people finally saw this during the campaign that they recognized a better candidate when they saw one (Obama).

Idle Speculation

With each party having its presumptive Presidential candidate, people with idle hands and minds will speculate on each party's potential vice-presidential candidates. Since I have some time to waste today, I think I'll join the fun.

For the Democrats, I think they have some intriguing possibilities. Try these: Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida, Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia. Nelson is a moderate Democrat who can bring into play his connections to try to win those critical Florida electoral votes for the Dems. He nicely balances Barack Obama in the areas of geography and philosophy. Richardson was the Democratic candidate with the most high-level experience and is well qualified to be president. Webb can put Virginia in play, but he is a recent Democrat, having been a lifelong Republican and Ronald Reagan's Secretary of the Navy. A better choice might be Virginia Gov. Time Kaine, but he would take the VP slot only if he could maintain his current position should the Dems lose in November. Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania has been mentioned in an attempt to wrap up that state's electoral votes, but Rendall is Jewish and a ticket comprised of a black and a Jew... well, I don't think we have progressed that far.

On the Republican side, McCain can really steal some of Barack Obama's thunder if he convinces Alma Powell to allow her husband, Colin, to take the VP slot. Condeleeza Rice is possible but not probable, and Mitt Romney is also mentioned, but Romney can't deliver either the conservative Republican base or Massachusetts. My favorite is Powell. I think McCain might make a radical move and pick Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, who has been by his side almost constantly. Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic VP nominee is on the outs with his party ever since the leftists there got behind Ned Lamont to unseat him in a primary. Lieberman now considers himself an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, but some Dems want to toss him out of the party even though his voting record is one that any Dem, except a leftist, would be comfortable with. If McCain want to emphasize his "maverick status", keep your eyes on Powell and Lieberman.

"Communitainment"

Bill Moyers on the need for quality media/journalism, corporate influence on journalism, and the effects on our democracy.

Moyers's speech at the National Conference for Media Reform yesterday.

Thanks to NYLIB for sending this to me.

Friday, June 6, 2008

6 June

6 June 1944. D-Day. Unfortunately, the significance of this date is fading from our collective memory as the population that lived through this momentous day leaves this mortal coil.

D-Day, known for the allied invasion from England, across the English Channel and to the shores of Normandy, placed the forces of the democracies in France. Those who study these matters know it was an incredible feat of arms. My late father-in-law, who was in the embarcation ports in southern England, told me he remembers that, from horizon to horizon, the sky was filled with aircraft headed to England.

D-Day. It indicates the day of a military action. There were many "D-Days". Africa. Italy. Gaudalcanal. Peleliu. Okinawa. Iwo Jima. Anzio. Attu. Kiska. Leyte.

On 6 June, let us remember all of those "D-Days" and all of those men who offered up the ultimate sacrifice, that we might today enjoy our freedoms and follies.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Grace versus Gauche

Hillary Clinton showed her true colors tonight, and it wasn't pretty. With all Democrats readily conceding that Barack Obama has won the nomination, Hillary refused to do the right thing by conceding to reality and throwing her support to Obama. She missed an opportunity to heal the deep divisions that formed as a natural consequence of the primary battles. She failed to heed the words of the famous Tammany Hall politician, George Washington Plunkett, who said, "I seen my opportunities and I took 'em." She could have healed her party and been a leader.

With one gracious act, she could have boosted the candidacy of the Democratic candidate. Instead, what we saw was her dung colored ego demanding more television time, more newspaper ink, and more aggravation. She asked her supporters to write to her website with their opinion on her next course of action. How craven! What an incredible lack of leadership and sense of party.

Barack Obama's speech stood in very sharp contrast to Hillary's. Obama was able to articulate an overarching concept of his vision of the United States and the goals of his administration. I don't think I've heard a better speech since Ronald Reagan was in office, as Obama echoed Lincoln and King. As I always say, if you are going to steal, steal from the best, and Obama did.

Everyone will surely note that approximately forty years since Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat, since Freedom Riders rode through the south, since Dr. King marched in Selma and had a dream in Washington, and since Lyndon Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act of 1964, a black American is the candidate of a major political party. We have witnessed history.


Now people will press for Obama to offer Hillary the VP slot on the ticket. There are so many reasons for not doing this: Hillary is the Washington insider and change opponent that Barack is running against; Hillary is still one of the most polarizing figures on the political scene; Hillary will not deliver one state more than John Kerry won in 2004; and certainly, Hillary kept her campaign open when she could have resolved all outstanding issues by withdrawing, thus committing an ultimate egotistical and selfish act. Don't do it Barack.

Saturday, May 31, 2008

The Question Now...

The question now is whether Hillary has enough sense to leave now, or whether she stays in the battle and weakens the party.

FROM AP

WASHINGTON - Democratic party officials said a committee agreed Saturday on a compromise to seat Michigan and Florida delegates with half-votes after Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton failed to get enough support to force their positions through.

The deal was reached after committee members met privately for more than three hours, trying to hammer out a deal, and announced in a raucous hearing that reflected deep divisions within the party. The sticking point was Michigan, where Obama's name was not on the ballot.

Clinton's camp insisted Obama shouldn't get any pledged delegates in Michigan since he chose not to put his name on the ballot, and she should get 73 pledged delegates with 55 uncommitted. Obama's team insisted the only fair solution was to split the pledged delegates in half between the two campaigns, with 64 each.
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The committee agreed on a compromise offered by the Michigan Democratic Party that would split the difference, allowing Clinton to take 69 delegates and Obama 59. Each delegate would get half a vote at the convention in Denver this summer, according to the deal.

They also agreed to seat the Florida delegation based on the outcome of the January primary, with 105 pledged delegates for Clinton and 67 for Obama, but with each delegate getting half a vote as a penalty.

The resolution increased the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination to 2,118, leaving Obama 66 delegates short but still within striking distance after the three final primaries are held in the next three days.

Obama picked up a total of 32 delegates in Michigan, including superdelegates who have already committed, and 36 in Florida. Clinton picked up 38 in Michigan, including superdelegates, and 56.5 in Florida.

Obama's total increased to 2,052, and Clinton had 1,877.5, according to The Associated Press calculations.

Rules and By-Laws

Today the Democrat's Rules and BY-Laws committee meet to settle the question of the Florida and Michigan primaries which were held in contravention of party rules. The party leadership in both states jumped the gun and scheduled their primaries too early in the political season. Hillary "won" in both Florida and Michigan, but Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan so the people there didn't have a a fair choice.

Hillary wants all the votes apportioned in accordance tot eh results of the votes in those states, but that will never happen. The national leadership must maintain some semblance of order--admittedly, hard for Democrats to do--and so they will compromise and give each delegate only half a vote.

They result will leave Obama with a substantial lead in delegate strength with primary season ending this week. The only question for Hillary is whether to take the classier route and withdraw after the primaries, and thus allow the various factions in the party sufficient time to lick their wounds and rally behind Obama and prepare for the battle with McCain. Hillary's alternative course of action is to keep the pot boiling until the convention in August and wage a floor fight based on two theories. First, she can argue that the Florida and Michigan delegates should be seated at full strength and the delegates apportioned in accordance with the votes in those states. Second, she can argue that as a result of seating the Florida and Michigan delegations at full strength, the number of delegate votes needed for the nomination then increases to 2250 from 2050. If Hillary chooses this latter course of action she will damage the party and what is left of her reputation.

The fact is, the PLEO's who have to vote will run to Obama following the last primary. Politicians never want to be the last aboard the bandwagon, and they see Obama's nomination as being inevitable at this point.

Look for Hillary to bow out in ten days.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Memorial Day

No politics today, as I write to honor those who are currently serving their country in uniform, those who have worn the uniform in the past, those who have been wounded in defense of freedom, and those who have given their lives for that precious ideal.

It is both unfortunate and sad that wars are still fought and that warriors are needed.

However, with every bullet fired, with every bomb dropped, and with every missile launched, we degrade and devalue the holiness and beauty that is inherent in our human existence. Therefore, even through the darkest periods of our existence as a species, we must always aspire to a higher level.

I hope we can eventually earn the peace prophesied by Isaiah and others:

<< Isaiah 2:4 >>

American King James Version
And he shall judge among the nations, and shall rebuke many people: and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more.


Isaiah 9:5 For every boot of the booted warrior in the battle tumult, And cloak rolled in blood, will be for burning, fuel for the fire.

Isaiah 9:7 There will be no end to the increase of His government or of peace, On the throne of David and over his kingdom, To establish it and to uphold it with justice and righteousness From then on and forevermore. The zeal of the LORD of hosts will accomplish this.

Isaiah 11:6 And the wolf will dwell with the lamb, And the leopard will lie down with the young goat, And the calf and the young lion and the fatling together

Isaiah 32:17 And the work of righteousness will be peace, And the service of righteousness, quietness and confidence forever.

Isaiah 32:18 Then my people will live in a peaceful habitation, And in secure dwellings and in undisturbed resting places;

Hosea 2:18 "In that day I will also make a covenant for them With the beasts of the field, The birds of the sky And the creeping things of the ground. And I will abolish the bow, the sword and war from the land, And will make them lie down in safety.

Joel 3:10 Beat your plowshares into swords And your pruning hooks into spears; Let the weak say, "I am a mighty man."

Sunday, May 18, 2008

You've Got to be Carefully Taught

Let's take a look at a couple of items.

I think it is generally agreed that the issues in this election, as of today are: the war, the environment/global warming, the economy-energy, housing, health care, education. And I think that you would agree that the Republicans have made a hash of all of these, close to 4,000 American dead in Iraq, the administration not addressing global warming in a meaningful way, a housing market collapse across the country, etc. etc. and so forth, as they say in The King and I.

These are all real issues that the Democrats can and should own.

The Republicans are bound to counter with their usual assortment of fear items: gay marriage, especially in light of the latest ruling by the California Supreme Court allowing it; illegal immigration and gun control. Not one of these issues impacts on the health of this nation but you can bet that the Republicans will play these cards because they have nothing left after eight years in power and no accomplishments to show the electorate.

This year should be a landslide in favor of the Democrats and, indeed, some pundits are starting to say those words, and they point to the Democratic victories in special congressional election in Louisiana, Mississippi and Indiana, where strong Republican districts elected--GASP!-- DEMOCRATS! But I think that the situation is more complex and not as rosy for the Dems. Let's take a look at some polls.

The electorate believes that the war was unnecessary, has been mishandled, and that we should get out. Take a look at this

Quinnipiac University Poll. May 8-12, 2008. N=1,745 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.4.


.


"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"


.

Approve Disapprove Unsure
% % %


5/8-12/08 29 67 4


10/23-29/07 31 65 4


8/7-13/07 29 67 4


6/5-11/07 25 70 6


4/25 - 5/1/07 31 64 5


.


"Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?"


.

Right Wrong Unsure
% % %


5/8-12/08 33 62 5


10/23-29/07 38 55 6


8/7-13/07 35 59 6


6/5-11/07 37 57 7


4/25 - 5/1/07 39 55 6




Nationally, the presumptive Democratic candidate, Barack Obama leads the presumptive Republican candidate, John McCain by single digit margins only. According to an analysis of several different polls and pollsters performed by Real Clear Politics, the margin in Obama's favor is slightly greater that 3%, well within the margin of error for most polls.

Another warning flare for the Democrats has to be this analysis of individual state polls performed by The Votemaster, which shows McCain handily winning 290 electoral votes, more than enough to take the Presidency.

So what is going on here? Why are the Democrats able to make significant inroads on a congressional level into heavily Republican areas while, at the same time, it appears that their candidate for President is in a statistical tie with the Republican candidate on a national basis and losing to him in the Electoral College?

I think several factors are at play. First, many of the issues we face are economic in nature, and Republican districts are showing that the Republican party has failed them here by voting for the Democratic candidate. As Tip O'Neill used to say, "All politics is local." On the other hand the international security issues are still controlled by the Republicans, even though there is great distress over how the war was being conducted.

You cannot discount the canards that the Republicans are spreading about Obama's patriotism and religious affiliations. So many items are being zapped about the Internet attacking Obama for being a Muslim (he isn't) and for not properly displaying appropriate patriotism by wearing an American flag lapel pin (a practice started by the soon to be impeached Richard M. Nixon) or having his hand over heart heart during the playing of the national anthem. All are false issues.

What may give McCain a boost into the Oval Office is simple: racism. Take a look at this article from the Washington Post:

Racist Incidents Give Some Obama Campaigners Pause

By Kevin Merida
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, May 13, 2008; A01

Danielle Ross was alone in an empty room at the Obama campaign headquarters in Kokomo, Ind., a cellphone in one hand, a voter call list in the other. She was stretched out on the carpeted floor wearing lace-less sky-blue Converses, stories from the trail on her mind. It was the day before Indiana's primary, and she had just been chased by dogs while canvassing in a Kokomo suburb. But that was not the worst thing to occur since she postponed her sophomore year at Middle Tennessee State University, in part to hopscotch America stumping for Barack Obama.

Here's the worst: In Muncie, a factory town in the east-central part of Indiana, Ross and her cohorts were soliciting support for Obama at malls, on street corners and in a Wal-Mart parking lot, and they ran into "a horrible response," as Ross put it, a level of anti-black sentiment that none of them had anticipated.

"The first person I encountered was like, 'I'll never vote for a black person," recalled Ross, who is white and just turned 20. "People just weren't receptive."

For all the hope and excitement Obama's candidacy is generating, some of his field workers, phone-bank volunteers and campaign surrogates are encountering a raw racism and hostility that have gone largely unnoticed -- and unreported -- this election season. Doors have been slammed in their faces. They've been called racially derogatory names (including the white volunteers). And they've endured malicious rants and ugly stereotyping from people who can't fathom that the senator from Illinois could become the first African American president.

The contrast between the large, adoring crowds Obama draws at public events and the gritty street-level work to win votes is stark. The candidate is largely insulated from the mean-spiritedness that some of his foot soldiers deal with away from the media spotlight.

Victoria Switzer, a retired social studies teacher, was on phone-bank duty one night during the Pennsylvania primary campaign. One night was all she could take: "It wasn't pretty." She made 60 calls to prospective voters in Susquehanna County, her home county, which is 98 percent white. The responses were dispiriting. One caller, Switzer remembers, said he couldn't possibly vote for Obama and concluded: "Hang that darky from a tree!"


So while people might express their dissatisfaction with the Republicans by voting for Democrats to preserve their economic interests, they may prefer the Republicans on the national security issues. But it may, in fact, be plain old bigotry that puts John McCain in the White House.

You've got to be carefully taught, indeed.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Michael Writes

I think you may be accused of a poor memory if you do not amend your statement "I can't think of one successful war of independence within the last century that was waged by a people against its own totalitarian regime."

Were the British in India Totalitarian? What about Apartheid in South Africa? The Philippines? I think there are many more and better examples that will crop up if you examine the question.
- Michael

Michael,

Let's examine the question. I established the conditions as follows:

1. It has to occur within the 20th Century;
2. It had to be successful in that it overturned a totalitarian government and replaced it with a long-term, democratic form of government;
3. It had to be waged by a people against its own government.

The British in India were colonial but not totalitarian. Could you possibly imagine Gandhi's March to the Sea under a classic totalitarian government such as the Nazis or Soviets? Further, Indian independence was fought for, and attained, against a foreign colonial power,not a native and indigenous totalitarian regime. Therefore, that does not meet my criterion of "own totalitarian regime."

"The Philippines". Michael, so nice that you just toss this out without any explanation. Are you talking about the Philippine rebellion against Spain in the 19th century? That doesn't meet my threshold of taking place in the 20th century and while the United States certainly was a colonial power in the Philippines, I would not consider its' role that of a totalitarian power as evidenced by the fact that the United States was committed to granting Philippine independence, which originally was to take place in the late 1930s-early 1940s, but which was delayed by World War 2. The United States eventually granted Philippine independence with the successful conclusion of the war. Again, this does not meet the criterion of being fought by a people against its "own totalitarian regime." While Philippine independence took place in the 20th century, it does not meet the threshold of criteria 2 and 3.

South Africa- I would certainly consider the white South African government totalitarian in nature, it was engaged in armed conflict with anti-government forces, and the government was changed to a more democratic form, at least for the time being. There appears to be growing evidence that this nation's government may be tilting in the direction of failure as evidenced by its support of Robert Mugabe's thoroughly totalitarian regime in Zimbabwe. Let's put South Africa on "Pending".

I think a better argument might be made by using the Polish revolution lead by Lech Walesa and his Solidarity movement, which took place prior to the demise of the Soviet superpower and with it, its retreating sphere of influence.

The demise of the Soviet Union was the result of a broad economic collapse. In any event, it now appears that the old Soviet Union, although somewhat diminished in size and reformulated as Russia, has again become totalitarian and under the control of Vladimir Putin of the KGB. Therefor, I would say that the Russian people continue to live under a totalitarian system.

TRM

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Tyranny and Freedom in Iraq?

No matter whom you believe, and no matter what you believe to be the proper course of action, one thing is certain: Iraq is a mess.

Frankly, I don't believe anyone who is giving an opinion as all sides have a rooting interest. Leftists delight in the fact that the president was wrong in launching this invasion and occupation. Rightists are like those three monkeys; see no evil; hear no evil; speak no evil, as they ignore what seem to be some very harsh realities staring them in the face.

What are those realities? I know only what I read in the papers but here is what I perceive. Iraq is simultaneously engaged in both a war of independence and a civil war. The war of independence is being waged against is past history of tribalism and totalitarianism.

Since its creation by the British from the remnants of the a portion of the Ottoman Turkish Empire in the aftermath of World War Iraq, a collection of disparate tribal entities, has been ruled by military strongmen who have never allowed democracy to take root there. I can't think of one successful war of independence within the last century that was waged by a people against its own totalitarian regime.

Iraq was firmly in the grip of the Saddamists before the Unites States invasion and there was no viable internal opposition to his tyranny. Totalitarian regimes are like that, as their police state sows fear in the heart of the populace while using its powers to crush--murder--any opponents to the regime. What the United States is trying to do at present is to impose a form of democratic republicanism that has not been nourished internally for more than 100 years, if ever. Further, we are trying to do it in an atmosphere where primitive tribal interests and religious imperatives--Sunni versus Shiite versus Kurd--overwhelm any desire to define or work for a common "Iraqi" purpose.

Thus, we find ourselves in the middle of a political condition that we are unable to define in a manner that would enable us to exert influence in any real and meaningful way. It is now up to the Iraqis to struggle to set their own agenda. The United states cannot impose its own agenda. Instead, we might be able to quietly influence various factions to promote a stable government as we go about our business of killing the monster we created, Al-Qeuda in Iraq.

This retrenchment of our position will enable us to face the greater threat in the gulf--Iran--and the re-formed Taliban and Al Queda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, respectively.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

GENIUS!!!

I just took a look at the schedule the Democrats have constructed for themselves.

The geniuses at the party decided to, get this, hold the convention August 25 through 28, in Denver. Read that again, August 25-28.

Let's see. Don't these guys know that almost all of America is on vacation then? Who wants to watch a convention when you're paying good money for some hotel near the Grand Canyon? If you're staying with the in-laws, well, maybe. But really!

Utter genius!!! Go Dems!

I'm Tired!!

The current state of the Democratic race brings to mind the famous words of Lili von Shtupp:
I'm tired,
Tired of playing the game
Ain't it a crying shame
I'm so tired
God dammit I'm exhausted

Tired, tired of playing the game
Ain't it a crying shame
I'm so tired


The Dems are in the equivalent of the Bataan Death March and I think they have exhausted not only themselves, but everyone else involved in the political scene. Hillary and Barack have nothing new to add to the dialogue, while the press continues to impress only itself with the never-ending game of "Gotcha!" with which it is currently enthralled.

I found it interesting that not only did I miss the last debate on ABC, but several politically involved friends also absented themselves from the program. There is nothing worse for a political party than to inspire nothing but boredom in the electorate.

Those most closely involved in the Democrats' campaign seem to have taken on an air of irrationality. Obama supporters say that they will not back Hillary if she wins the nomination. Hillary backers are saying that if Obama wins, they stay home on election day. Both sides are lying, of course. It's one thing to fully back your candidate, it's quite another to threaten to stay home and allow the Republicans to again win the White House. When the nominee is chosen they will all make nice and rally 'round the candidate, so don't believe any of the whining.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Best Political Comment You Won't Read in an American Publication

From The Economist, April 5th, 2008 pg.19

"The Democrats are all too aware that their civil war could spell disaster. A cavalcade of senior Democrats, including senators Patrick Leahy and Chris Dodd, have advised Mrs. Clinton to retire to her room with a glass of whiskey and and a loaded revolver."

Thursday, April 10, 2008

MUST READ!

Today's Altercation blog was turned over to soldier/historian LTC Bob Bateman.It is so good that I am reprinting it here in its entirety.

Thank you, Colonel Bateman.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Before the politics, the analysis, the emotion, and counter-emotion about what he said, or what Gen. Petraeus did not say, or what anyone thinks he should have said, come bubbling up, I think perhaps it's time to break my silence.

You all, perhaps, have noticed that I have been absent of late. That has been intentional. It's politics time, and around politics time I feel less comfortable about everyone who is political. Uh, except my wife. But since she is serving in Sri Lanka right now, I don't even deal with that much.

I do not think it is a soldier's position to get into the middle of things, and I generally avoid it myself. Believe it or not, to my eyes it is clear that while he is good at it, General P doesn't much like being there either. But that is now his job. But with all of the sentiment, real and postured, seen on Capitol Hill these past 24 hours, I thought it might be useful to introduce some real emotion.

This essay is dated, though perhaps you might not find it so. I wrote it, and it was published in a small venue, Vietnam Magazine, six years ago. I hope that perhaps, on a host of issues, it reminds you about some of the things we all believe in. Beyond the debates of this day, or this war. Beyond the ideas of policy and strategy versus tactics and structure. I enjoin you for a moment, as one senator pleaded not long ago, to look past, to look beyond. In this small way, by a mild act of distraction, and sentiment, and perhaps hope, I enjoin you all to take a few moments to reflect. That is all. I do not care upon what you reflect. But it is something that others beyond our shores have suggested that we might do better as a nation, and I agree. In listening to them, it occurred to me I might help in this way. By giving you something from the heart upon which to reflect, and contemplate, so that you might have a moment to yourself to delve into complexity.

You should know also that with this tale I am not advocating. I am relating. The subject, my friend, had come to hate war as only those who have been in war can hate war. This, therefore, is not jingoism. This is the story of one man. That is all. There is no one "message in this essay." You may each take from it what you will. And in the process, be complex.

All within it has been given freely, by the author, and the subject, I assure you.

Garryowen,

Robert Bateman
7th United States Cavalry
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Rick Rescorla

I heard his voice long before I ever met him: "Gaaaa-rry Owen, Garry Owen, Garry Owen / In the Valley of Montana all alone / There'll be better days to be for the 7th Cavalry / When we charge again for dear old Garry Owen ..."

It was the summer of 1995. I was a company commander in the 2nd Battalion, 7th Cavalry, George Armstrong Custer's old outfit -- and an audiotape made at An Khe, Vietnam, in the spring of 1966 had found its way into my hands. "Garry Owen," or more properly, Garryowen," is the motto of the 7th Cavalry. The voice pounding through on the scratchy tape was a voice out of the pages of history for me -- the voice of Rick Rescorla.

As a 7th Cavalryman I had heard of Rescorla. He was made famous by the account of his actions during the Battle of the Ia Drang Valley in November 1965, America's first major battle of the Vietnam War. He became a legend in the unit for his unflappable behavior in combat, and his face became an American icon when a young reporter named Peter Arnett snapped his photo. That photo became the cover of the book We Were Soldiers Once ... and Young, by Hal Moore and Joe Galloway, two who were there. The book, and now the movie, We Were Soldiers, tell the story of the fight. Rescorla was a second lieutenant then, but was already experienced in combat.

Born in Cornwall, on the English coast, Rescorla had seen man's darker side already, first from service with the British army on Cyprus, and later in a "security force" in Rhodesia. The epitome of the young warrior, he was the sort that England seems to have bred in abundance for centuries: the type of young man who in times past went forth from Britain and created an empire upon which the sun never set. England happened to be fresh out of wars in the 1960s, so Rescorla became an American and fought in ours. He thought there was something to America.

In 1965 Rescorla knew war. His men did not, yet. To steady them, to break their concentration away from the fear that may grip a man when he realizes there are hundreds of men very close by who want to kill him, Rescorla sang when the shooting was hottest. Mostly he sang dirty songs that would make a sailor blush. Interspersed with the lyrics was the voice of command: "Fix bayonets ... on liiiiine ... reaaaa-dy ... forward." It was a voice straight from Waterloo, from the Somme, implacable, impeccable, impossible to disobey. His men forgot their fear to some degree, concentrated on his orders and marched forward as he led them straight into the pages of history: 1st Platoon, Bravo Company, 2nd Battalion, 7th Cavalry ... "Hard Corps."

When I started interviewing these veterans of my regiment decades later, I was struck by the emotions Rescorla's men still felt for him. His old radio telephone operator (RTO), Sam Fantino, 30 years later still seemed to maintain that constant "where-the-hell-is-the-lieutenant-now" look out of the corner of his eye. When a lieutenant and his RTO click, the radioman takes on a host of new roles -- part radioman, part scrounge, part mother hen looking over "his" lieutenant. With Fantino and Rescorla it was something special to watch, three decades later. Many other survivors of the platoon acted the same way. Over time, I came to believe that they would have followed Rescorla in an assault upon the gates of Hell, even then, for he did not order, he led. Literally.

After his time as a rifle platoon leader, Rescorla technically became what we call a "liaison officer." But in reality he was running a sort of miniature, brigade-level long range reconnaissance patrol team for the commander, Colonel (later Lieutenant General) Hal Moore. They called it a Ground Reconnaissance Infiltration Team, though Rescorla told me he preferred to call his group a GRIT patrol. One hundred fifty men tried out, from whom Rescorla chose 15 for a trial patrol. From those 15, three men were selected to accompany Rick on the ground, one of them a former British commando. Walking deep into areas such as the "Crow's Foot," well ahead of the rest of the brigade, Rescorla and his team bridged the gap between division reconnaissance elements (higher) and battalion scouts (lower). It was a no-man's land that defies description. That was his idea of a "cushy staff job."

Twenty-nine years later, the tape made in 1966, in a claptrap officers' club, made its way into my hands, and for the first time I heard the voice that at that time I had only read of in history books. It was a strong voice, booming out the solos and leading the chorus of young American officers trying to forget, or perhaps to remember with honor, their soldiers who now lay still. I doubt there was a sober voice in the pack. In the background there is the recurrent booming of 105mm howitzers firing. This was the 1st Cavalry Division, in war. It was eerie to know that nobody had heard this tape in almost 30 years. I made seven copies so the tape would not disappear into history, and sent one to Rescorla himself.

I am really lucky. Over the course of my life I have met men who, to my eyes, have walked into the room off the pages of a history book. Sometimes I get to meet my heroes.

A few months after receiving the tape from An Khe, I had the chance to attend the annual reunion dinner of the veterans of the fighting in the Ia Drang. That weekend I also had the honor of meeting Rick in person. He was bigger now, rounder and downright jolly in some ways, but in his eye I caught the glint of mischief that so many of his former soldiers talked about. He was now a civilian. After returning to the States in 1966 he had spent a year teaching at Fort Benning, Georgia, and then got out -- sort of. He stayed in the Army Reserve, advancing to colonel before he retired in 1990. Along the way he had picked up a master's degree in literature and a law degree. He wrote poems and screenplays and was conversant in philosophy. But something in his makeup would not allow him to entirely abandon the idea behind our profession. Rick Rescorla eventually became the director of security for Morgan Stanley in their offices at the World Trade Center.

He had not, however, forgotten his origins as a warrior poet. That first reunion I attended, approaching him almost as a religious supplicant, I asked him to sign my copy of We Were Soldiers Once ... and Young. We would talk much more later, and I would listen as he and others told their stories, but that was our first contact. He apparently knew something of me though. He asked me to wait a moment, got himself a drink, and sat staring into the middle distance for a moment. When he handed my copy back, the inscription read: "To: Captain Bob Bateman / Old Dogs and Wild Geese are Fighting / Head for the Storm / As you faced it before / For where there is the 7th / There's bound to be fighting / And where there's no fighting / It's the 7th no more. / Best, / Rick Rescorla, Hard Corps One-Six [his radio call sign in Vietnam]"

We met again, several times in fact, after that, historian/soldier and warrior/poet. I even managed to coax him up to West Point in the Spring of 2001. It was a grand day.

When Islamic fundamentalists bombed the World Trade Center in 1993, Rick was there. Apparently songs don't work as well on civilians as they do with us soldiers, and so Rick had some difficulty in getting people's attention and calming them down while trying to get them to evacuate. To stop the panic and get them the hell out of there he had to do something. And so, he jumped up onto a desk and bellowed out to the flower of American capitalism and propriety that he would moon the whole lot of them unless they @%^$ listened.

Nobody I ever met said Rick could not make a statement. People stopped, that's for sure, and Rick proceeded to do his job, saving lives by moving people out of the tower. And that's what he was doing again on September 11, 2001. Various employees of Morgan Stanley report his presence across all 20 floors occupied by the company. Just as in combat, he was everywhere -- calm, jocular in the face of panic, reassuring in his personal presence. There is no way to exaggerate the number of human lives he saved that day. Not just the Morgan Stanley employees, but every single person on a floor above theirs owes a nod in his direction. Thanks to him, just about every one of the employees of his company made it out of the building, all 20 floors of them. Of all their thousands, all but seven got out. Think about that. One man saved at least 2,000, and probably 3,400 lives. His legend in the company helped (people remember when somebody on an executive salary threatens to moon the staff), and that, and his voice, was enough to keep those people moving, which allowed others to follow, to leave -- and to live.

My friend Rick Rescorla would no more have left that tower before every single person was outside than I would start standing on a piano and singing show tunes from Broadway. When he called his wife not long after the first plane hit the other tower, he told her not to worry, he was getting everyone out. Despite the fact that an announcement was made over the building speakers telling everyone to stay put after that first strike, Rescorla apparently said, "Bugger that!" and started the evacuation immediately. When it appeared that everyone was out ... Rick went back in, heading up those stairs with the rescue workers. That is where he was last seen by a survivor, somewhere around the tenth floor. He was heading up. He was inside, being himself, when the tower came down on him.

My hero, my friend, died that day. But heroes never really die. Rick will live on. So long as my pen has ink, and my voice bellows out to those manning the ramparts with me today, he will live on. Rick was a volunteer in a draftee army. In some ways that made it hard for him. It's easy today. Today we are all volunteers, and the young men and women I serve with will hear Rick's story because I will tell them, and they will remember. It is our professional strength: We remember.

Peace for the majority has always exacted a cost from a few. Rick knew that. He lived that. I suspect that he's waiting now, down in Fiddler's Green -- the mythical bar located "halfway down the trail to hell," where all cavalrymen pull off the road for a drink. (We never, thereby, ever make it all the way.) He is there and composing his next bawdy ballad and telling those men from his platoon whom he last saw in the Ia Drang Valley of Vietnam, what they missed over the past 30-plus years. He'll be telling them lies, of course, but they will be huge magnificent glowing and poetic lies, and every one of them will have a punch line to bring tears to your eyes. Shoot, he's probably tending the bar by now.

"... So after you read this, get your canteen cup, / And fill it with mead, or scotch, or rotgut, / Then pour it right out, on the ground, on the floor, / For the heart of the Seventh, Rescorla's no more. " ~Bateman

Rick Rescorla, an American from Cornwall. Please remember.

You can write to LTC Bob at R_Bateman_LTC@hotmail.com
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Republican Lite?

A note to correspondent NYC LIBERAL, who often claims that Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman is, at best, Republican Lite, if not full blooded Republican. Lieberman, the long time Democrat and one time vice presidential and presidential candidate, lost a primary to anti-war insurgent Ned Lamont, and then ran and won as an Independent. Lieberman continued to caucus with the Democrats and helped to reserve their one vote majority in the Senate.

But that was not good enough for the left wing purists, who continue to scourge Lieberman,especially since he accompanied the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee, John McCain, during a recent mid-east trip.

To them, I present the results of a study performed by the esteemed Votemaster, who says:

To start with, it is all blue on top and all red on the bottom (with senators Sanders and Lieberman counting as honorary Democrats since they caucus with the Democrats). With three exceptions, all Republicans are less liberal than the most conservative Democrat, Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD). The three exceptions are the two ladies from Maine, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who are strongly pro-choice. If NARAL and abortion were not in the list, they would drop dramatically. The other Republican who floated to the top is Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), who, unlike John McCain, really is a maverick.

...
Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) is quite liberal, more so than the Barbaras (Boxer and Mikulski, both of whom are known as real firebrands). But Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) is the most conservative Democrat, despite the demographics of the two states being pretty similar. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who is often referred to in the blogosphere as a crypto-Republican actually has a more liberal rating than the other senator from Connecticut, Chris Dodd, who ran for President as a liberal.(emphasis mine-TRM)


The full Votemaster report is the one dated April 9,here.

Lies, Damned Lies...Pt. 2

Some additional thoughts on yesterday's post.

What we really have to do is change this paradigm where we are controlled by the unknown. We have to develop a goal, a policy, and stick with it with the fullest political and national resolve. We have to impose our will, whatever that is, on the situation in Iraq. If our national will calls for withdrawal,so be it. If we, as a nation, decide that more aggressive actions are called for, then let's do it.

What is murderous is playing Hamlet on the Euphrates, unable to decide, and unable to take action. That is how we wind up with soldiers dying for no worthy cause.

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

With Gen. Petreaus and Amb. Croker hauled before both Senate and House committees, as well as three presidential candidates, we have an opportunity to witness, in one fell swoop, a bunch of people displaying their total ignorance.

Everyone trots out their statistics to buttress his or her position: we are winning , we are losing, we have already lost. We leave tomorrow. We leave next year. We stay for one hundred years.

It seems to me that the truth is very simple but no one wants to say the dreadful words: "We really don't know a damned thing!"

we don't know if we are "winning", however you might define that . We don't know what the Shiites will do. We don't know what the Sunnis will do. We don't know what the Kurds will do. We don't know what the government will do. We don't know what Muqtadar al Sadr will do. We don't know what Syria will do. We don't know what Iran will do.

We don't even know what we will do!

That's a hell of a lot of ignorance on display! And that's why we have our hands wrapped around this tar baby without one solid idea of what to do next.

If anyone says they "know", run, because their sole intention is to pick your wallet, pluck out your teeth and settle in some nice villa somewhere!

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Funny Thought

It looks as though things might be loosening up a bit in Cuba now that Fidel has turned over the reins to brother Raul. the younger Castro is allowing Cubans to buy cell phones and other consumer electronics (how do they have the money to do that?) and to stay in hotels previously restricted to foreign tourists.

So imagine what happens when they start to import new cars. All these years that have performed feats of magic keeping their beloved old Detroit Iron, such as Desotos and Studebakers, on the road. Now they will want to replace those old classics and they will find that modern American cars are crap.

Hilarious!

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Lawyer Joke

Adobe tried to sneak this language through on the free Photoshop Express application they just made available to the public. Someone actually read the license agreement and found this example of the lawyerly art:

Adobe does not claim ownership of Your Content. However, with respect to Your Content that you submit or make available for inclusion on publicly accessible areas of the Services, you grant Adobe a worldwide, royalty-free, nonexclusive, perpetual, irrevocable, and fully sublicensable license to use, distribute, derive revenue or other remuneration from, reproduce, modify, adapt, publish, translate, publicly perform and publicly display such Content and to incorporate such Content into other Materials or works in any format or medium now known or later developed.



Adobe said, "Uh, never mind!", and is re-writing these doozy of a license agreement

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Stupid is as Stupid Does

I've been reading about the current mortgage meltdown and the subsequent crisis in the world of credit and I am sorely vexed.

If I get it right, unscrupulous lenders offered money to unqualified borrowers so they could buy homes that they couldn't otherwise afford. The lenders then acted like deli countermen and sliced up the mortgage packages into little tiny bits of debt that were purchased by investors hoping to make a big gain when the mortgages reset.

It was a party where everyone was drinking the easy credit Kool Aid.

So now the borrowers who couldn't afford it can't, and the lenders who shouldn't have lent are broke, and the investors are holding worthless paper. That pretty much sums it up, doesn't it?!

So all the big boys on Wall Street with the slicked-back hair, high priced apartments, and fancy whores are quivering in fear just like the people who are losing their houses. It's interesting to see those two groups huddled together holding out tin cups over at the Treasury

And now the federal government is going to throw a cash lifeline to all of them.

The argument for doing this is the credit markets are now so leery of handing out cash to borrowers that they are zipping their pockets. No lending means no business expansion. No business expansion means recession. And since this is an election year the Republicans can't allow that to happen, because how would Mr. McCain defend Republican government policies which cause people get tossed out of their homes? People on the street makes for good television for the Democrats. Then again, if the administration did nothing, the Democrats would point to all of those poor people on the street and say, "Look at what those heartless Republicans did to you!"

The truth is that the markets have to be stabilized, despite all the right-wing Republican bovine by-product you hear at all other times about getting rid of government intervention. The right-wingers want their investment dollars protected and it's your money they want to accomplish that goal.

Meanwhile, the people who, driven by their own greed and stupidity, borrowed more than they could ever afford, because they thought they would be able to make their fortune from their houses, will be bailed out too.

And so the money for this financial boondoggle will come from the pockets of all the hardworking Joes and Janes who saw through the scams and who didn't get caught up in the cycle of greed and stupidity.

Does this make you feel better?

Perhaps the only good that might come out of this debacle is the imposition of the same regulation and oversight on these investment houses as currently exists for banks. If they want to take government money, they have to accept the regulations that go with it.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Kevin Writes...

This should be the most important argument Clinton can present to superdelegates. She has won primary states that can yield more electoral votes come November.

Also, part of McCain's appeal is his honesty and willingness to, well, be trusted. On the war, McCain's gotten it right. You can't hold him any more accountable for the start of the war than Hillary Clinton: both voted for it, and both voted for the bills that upheld the war. The only difference is that McCain stuck to his votes, and even differed with the President when he thought it necessary. Recently, things have turned around in Iraq, largely due to the troop surge which McCain was calling for long before anyone else.

March 24, 2008 10:28 PM

Monday, March 24, 2008

Poll Watching

I previously reported on poll results,especially the latest ones that showed a statistical tie in either an Obama-McCain contest or a Clinton-McCain battle. Those polls always showed population preferences.

Leave it to the Votemaster to take all the data and wring out the most interesting insights.

In today's (3/24)posting, he looks at the individual state results in the possible presidential match-ups to see who might win the most electoral, rather than popular, votes, and he comes to an intriguing conclusion.

In an Obama-McCain election, the winner is McCain! And by a comfortable margin, with the vote at 292-231.

On the other hand, a Clinton versus McCain match-up has the Democrat winning 268-246.

So how do we resolve the difference between the popular vote polls which show statistical ties, with this analysis of the electoral vote based on individual state polls? We don't! It's still far too early to draw any conclusions about the mood and focus of the electorate. Frankly, I was quite surprised by the voter polls that showed McCain in a statistical tie with either Democratic candidate. When you consider the war, the economy and the general disapproval, if not disgust, for the Republican president George Bush, for McCain to show as much strength as he has must be rather cheery news for him and his team.

Remember,in politics a week is an eternity, and things will change.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Bahgdad Tears

From MSNBC:

NOT GIVING UP HOPE IN IRAQ

Posted: Thursday, March 20, 2008 12:47 PM
Filed Under: Baghdad, Iraq

By Rose Rasheed, an Iraqi translator for NBC News

BAGHDAD, Iraq - I remember vividly the moment when the bombing started five years ago. The sound of the air raids and the sirens still echo inside me.

Within minutes of the first siren, columns of smoke climbed the sky and thunderous explosions could be heard everywhere. It brought mixed feelings for many Iraqis; feelings of delight and anxiety, which were overwhelming to me and my family.

On the one hand, there was a strong sense of hope and expectation that this war would lead us to a better future and away from a life that had witnessed many wars and much destruction. On the other hand, there was anxiety that it could all end in disappointment.

On April 9, 2003, our neighbor came running to our house like an excited child, saying that U.S. forces were on the main road of our neighborhood. We did not believe her.

Then we saw them. Some were on the top of a house; others positioned on the ground. A big convoy of tanks and armored vehicles followed shortly. My mother, sister, the neighbor and I went running toward them.

My sister said "hi" to a soldier who looked like the actor Tom Selleck. The convoy spread over the whole neighborhood, as Iraqis greeted soldiers with cheers and big smiles and simple words like "welcome mister" or "hello." Everyone, I mean everyone, was welcoming the troops.

Now, five years later, we can only find but a few optimistic Iraqis in comparison to the many we saw back then. Pessimism has rapidly grown and overwhelmingly dominates the mentality of most Iraqis.

Hopes of a brighter future are dashed by the bad security situation and the difficult living conditions. One now sees people attack the same forces they had once welcomed, even going so far as to attack those who work or cooperate with the troops.

The same place, the same forces, and the same people, yet so much has changed.

Despite the negative turn in Iraq, I hope to celebrate the next anniversary, the sixth, in a prosperous Iraq with wide smiles drawn deep from the heart and reflected on Iraqi faces. I have not given up.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Ach du Lieberman!

I swear that I have not partaken in illegal herb but I think John McCain can really make a powerful move for the support of the political center and center right by picking Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (I) as his running mate.

Lieberman, Al Gore's vice-presidential running mate, basically broke with the political powers of the Democratic Party when they supported newcomer Ned Lamont in an primary run-off. That pissed off the career Democrat and he declared himself an Independent but he continued to caucus with the Democrats. With a one vote majority in the Senate as long as Lieberman was with them , the Connecticut Senator had the best of all possible political worlds. He continued to proclaim his independence, while the Democrats allowed him to do as he wished in order to maintain their majority.

The November election could see a major shift in the Senate with the Democrats in line to pick up from six to eight seats. While not giving them a filibuster proof majority, they surely would no longer need Lieberman on their side. It makes sense for McCain to ask Lieberman to join him on the Republican ticket and for Lieberman to accept. Two so-called maverick centrist Senators--one a full-fledged Republican despised by the right wing of his party, and one a former Democrat despised by the left wing of his party-- together on a ticket that is both geographically, politically and ethnically balanced could be a win-win for for both Senators. (I wonder if anyone has every run for vice president with two competing political parties?)

Silence From the Left

Why am I not surprised that the left has been silent concerning China's brutal repression of Tibet? I suppose it's because they can't demonstrate against America.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

No Stare Decisis ? No Second Amendment?

Stare Decisis:

[Latin, Let the decision stand.] The policy of courts to abide by or adhere to principles established by decisions in earlier cases.

In the United States and England, the Common Law has traditionally adhered to the precedents of earlier cases as sources of law. This principle, known as stare decisis, distinguishes the common law from civil-law systems, which give great weight to codes of laws and the opinions of scholars explaining them. Under stare decisis, once a court has answered a question, the same question in other cases must elicit the same response from the same court or lower courts in that jurisdiction.


Despite mountains of scholarly research, enough books to fill a library shelf and decades of political battles about gun control, the Supreme Court will have an opportunity this week that is almost unique for a modern court when it examines whether the District's handgun ban violates the Second Amendment.


The nine justices, none of whom has ever ruled directly on the amendment's meaning, will consider a part of the Bill of Rights that has existed without a definitive interpretation for more than 200 years.

"This may be one of the only cases in our lifetime when the Supreme Court is going to be interpreting the meaning of an important provision of the Constitution unencumbered by precedent,'' said Randy E. Barnett, a constitutional scholar at the Georgetown University Law Center. "And that's why there's so much discussion on the original meaning of the Second Amendment.''


The Washington Post takes a look ahead at the always controversial Second Amendment and its upcoming date with the Supremes, here.

Calculus in Israel

The always interesting Reut Institute in Israel considers some of the political and military options currently possible. None of them are really good, but the issue is, what is possible? For the full article, go here.

Here is a taste:


Essence of Warning

During negotiations with the Palestinians in 1999-2001, Israel presented a number of security demands that included, among other things, the demilitarization of the Palestinian state, control and use of its air space, supervision of its external envelope and early warning stations.

These demands were based on a number of Israeli assumptions at the core of which was the belief that the goal of the Palestinian national movement was to establish an independent Palestinian state. Therefore, in order to achieve this goal, the Palestinians would be willing to give up certain attributes of sovereignty.

In recent years however, the relevancy of these Israeli assumptions has been eroded. Palestinians from across the political spectrum are undermining the logic of establishing a Palestinian state. Some of those who oppose a state alongside Israel do so for strategic and ideological reasons. Others meanwhile oppose it for tactical reasons such as the realization that Israel's need to end its control over the Palestinians will force it to compromise on its demands. Either way, Palestinian willingness to compromise its sovereign authority is decreasing.

Under such circumstances, the challenge to the State of Israel and its negotiation team is to balance between the need to end Israel's control over the Palestinian population in the West Bank and the importance of security arrangements. Therefore the basic dilemma for Israel is deciding between:

* Military Logic that requires undermining Palestinian sovereignty and maintaining a significant Israeli presence in the West Bank. This logic accepts the risk of not achieving an agreement thus leaving Israel exposed to a strategy aimed at causing its internal collapse due to its control over the Palestinian population.

* Political Logic that requires the end of Israeli control over the Palestinian population even at the price of a significant reduction of its military presence in Palestinian territory and approximation of Kassam rockets towards the country's center. This logic requires Israel to identify and concentrate on the minimum security demands necessary for agreement.

Policy Options

Establishing a national security doctrine within Israel's borders - Israel should prepare for the possibility that it will be forced to withdraw from the West Bank without realizing all of its security demands (and possibly none at all). Therefore, Israel should formulate an all-inclusive national security doctrine towards the Palestinians based on deterrence and operating military forces within Israel's territory rather than on arrangements around the external perimeter of Palestine.

Distinguishing the wheat from the chaff - Not all of Israel's security demands have the same importance. For example, demands to control Palestine's airspace seem more essential than demands for areas for military preparation. Therefore, Israel should prioritize its demands and concentrate on the most important ones.

Reframing the negotiations: security demands for Palestinian demands to 'intrude' into Israel's sovereign space - Israel can 'leverage' Palestinian claims to intrude into its sovereign space (safe passage, desalinization plants, use of sea and air-ports and others) as a 'bargaining chip' to achieve Palestinian concessions regarding security issues.1

As an example, creating a connection between establishing a safe passage in Israeli territory between Gaza and the West Bank and Israeli use of Palestinian air space could help ensure this Israeli demand.

Exchange of territories with Egypt as a condition for demilitarization arrangements - The reality in Rafah of two cities connecting to one another underneath the Gaza-Egypt border completely prevents enforcing demilitarization arrangements in Gaza. Therefore, if Israel decides to maintain its current position on demilitarization, it should consider an exchange of territories in the Gaza region so the Gaza-Sinai border will pass to the west of Rafah. In exchange, Israel can give Egypt territory from the Negev that could be considered a deposit for a later exchange of territories in the West Bank.

Click here for full document.

Poll Watching

SurveyUSA has Obama leading Hillary 49% to 41% in North Carolina. Im a little surprised that the margin is only 8% (n=713 likely voters, moe=3.7%). As SUSA reports

In a Democratic Primary in North Carolina today, 03/11/08, eight weeks to the vote, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, before Obama won Virginia, Maryland, and Wisconsin, and before Clinton won Texas and Ohio, the contest in NC is largely unchanged. Then, Obama led by 10, now by 8. In Charlotte, Obama led by 2 points a month ago, by 7 points today. In Southern and Eastern NC, Obama led by 4 points a month ago, by 8 points today. Only in Raleigh and Greensboro did Clinton slice into Obama, trimming his lead from 16 points a month ago to 8 points today. Among women, Obama and Clinton are effectively even, as they were last month. Among men, Obama leads by 13. Clinton leads 5:3 among whites. Obama leads 5:1 among blacks. Obama leads among voters under age 50. The two are tied among voters age 50+.


Pennsylvania shows Hillary ahead 55% to Obama's 36% (n=608 likely voters, moe=4%). The problem with those numbers is that Hillary's support seems to erode the closer voters get to the actual vote. And since the Dems allocate their delegates proportionally, Hillary has to score big in order to eke out any advantage. All Obama has to do is hold his own and the delegate lead he has will be insurmountable.

In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 03/11/08, six weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 55% to 36%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. Obama and Clinton are effectively tied in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia, but Clinton leads everywhere else. She is up 2:1 in SW PA, which includes Pittsburgh; is up 5:4 in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg; is up 4:1 in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown; is up 5:3 in NE PA, which includes Wilkes-Barre; and is up 4:1 in NW PA, which includes Erie. Clinton leads 2:1 among whites; Obama leads 3:1 among blacks. Clinton leads by 5 among men, by 30 among women. She leads by 12 among those under age 50, leads by 26 among those age 50+. On the Economy, which is most important to Democratic voters in PA, Clinton leads by 24 points. On Health Care, next most important, Clinton leads by 32 points. Among voters focused on Iraq, the two are effectively tied.


Newsweek's Howard Fineman gets some local Penn color (coaldust?), here.

Happy Birthday!!!

A Birthday Shout-Out to .. JAMES MADISON.. Fourth president of the United States of America and father of both the Constitution and Bill of Rights! (he was a busy man!)

Thanks Loads, Jimmie! Ya done well, lad!

Read more here.

Square Bricks

Square Bricks. Yep, that's what the Clintonistas are creating from the depths of their panic. The is no other way to explain the fact that they are suing the Texas Democratic Party (!) over the outcome of the primary/caucus system that took place in that state. The Dallas Morning news has that story here.

In a letter sent to the state Democratic Party late Friday, the Clinton campaign requests the March 29 count and state Senate district conventions be postponed until the eligibility of an estimated 1 million caucus-goers are double checked.

The Clinton campaign wrote they received more than 2,000 complaints of violations following the historic Texas turnout, which was perhaps the nation's largest caucus ever.

With about 41 percent of precinct caucuses reported, rival Barack Obama was ahead with 56 percent to Clinton's 44 percent.

"It is the Party's responsibility to ensure the integrity of the precinct convention process by making sure that the Rules were followed," the letter states.

The letter came after the Clinton campaign said party officials told them this week it would not verify the eligibility of all caucus-goers before March 29. The county and district caucuses will whittle down the delegates before the state convention in June, when the final delegate count for the Texas caucus will be known.

Texas Democratic Party spokesman Hector Nieto said Saturday the party has not yet had the opportunity to make any decisions on the Clinton campaign's request.

"We're not surprised Senator Clinton's campaign has engaged with their attorney, but right now the TDP remains extremely pleased by the record-breaking turnout," Nieto said.

Nieto said state party officials had not received a similar request from Obama's campaign. A message left to the Obama campaign Saturday was not immediately returned.


Suing your own party is something that outsiders and losers do. It's a Ralph Nader type of move. And the former First Lady and two-term senator ain't an outsider. "Somethings in the Air Tonight" and it's called "Panic!"

By the way, a close reading of the Constitution of United States reveals that there is no position called "First Lady", so any claim that Hillary makes regarding the wealth of experience she gained in that position should be considered with a long tonne of salt. That's sort of like me claiming I know how to practice law because my wife is an attorney. And the only bar I'd like to stand behind makes a mean Beefeater martini.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Adios Admiral Fallon

So the administration has canned the head of Central Command,Adm. William Fallon, for speaking out against an invasion of Iran. Or at least saying that it ain't gonna happen.

Required reading in Esquire, here.

When your boss stops taking your phone calls, you know it is the time to pack up your office.

But I have to think this one through.

Is this administration suicidal enough to start a war in an election year? I fear the answer might be "Yes".

What proof would the administration present as a casus belli? Let's just say that Bush's credibility on issues like this is nil. I remember a story concerning the Cuban missile crisis. President Kennedy was talking to DeGaulle and offered to show DeGaulle the reconnaissance photos. DeGaulle supposedly refused the offer and said there is no need for him to doubt the word of the American president. Bush would be ross-examined by world leaders, and found guilty of lying, irrespective of any evidence he might provide.

Where would we get the troops?

We would find ourselves in engaged in ground combat against Muslims in a geographic area ranging from the Fertile Crescent of Iraq to Pakistan.We would radicalize even more Muslims, and we would unite Sunni and Shiites against us, well, even more than they are now.

We would unite the Iranian people against us. I know it sounds funny, but Iranians seem to be displeased with their government because of two issues: the internal economy is collapsing, and they believe their image as a sophisticated people is suffering badly.You have to ask yourself, How committed is Iran to an Islamic Revolution when the women are all concerned about getting nose jobs, and here and here? In how many totalitarian governments do you find only 50% of the electorate going to the polls? "Something is happening there, and what it is ain't exactly clear". I would say that the best course of action would be to pressure that government through diplomatic and economic sanctions, but for those to be effective both Russia and China would have to be on board,and it seems that they are interested in two things: Iran's oil, and keeping the United States boxed in and isolated.

So far, with the cooperation of the Bush administration, they are achieving their goals.

Random Thoughts

I never see the American left demonstrate against Chinese suppression of human rights.

I never see the American left demonstrate against Chinese capture and oppression of Tibet and Tibetans.

I never see the American left demonstrate against the oppressive Myanmar (Burmese) government.

I never see the American left demonstrate against the atrocities of Darfur.

I never see the American left demonstrate against the resurgence of Russian imperialism.

I guess these issues are all beneath them.

maybe they are just too busy working.

The American right..ah, those guys.

They love talking about freedom, but are always eager to impose their ideas on everyone else.

Who gave them the right to get involved in the Terry Schiavo tragedy? This was a family matter.

Who gave them the right to prevent gays from living their lives in peace and quiet.

Who gave them the right to dumb down the education of American kids?

Who gave them the right to lie us into an unnecessary war?

A pox on both their houses!

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Messy Dems

Another good one from the Votemaster , who asks:

what would have happened if the Democrats had used a statewide winner-take-all rule. In other words, suppose the statewide winner got all the delegates. Where would be be now? Here is the answer.


In other words, what is the Dems had used Republican rules. Well, for the answer, please go to the Votemaster's March 11th page, here. (This link will take you to the most recent Votemaster page. Please use his "Previous Report" link on the top right to work back to the March 11 report)

But the short answer is that the mess the Dems find themselves in would not exist.

For those of you who are looking for yesterday's great Votemaster page on competence versus experience, look under the section on his page that says "Data Galore" (yes, she was in a James Bond movie).

Monday, March 10, 2008

For Hire:

Excellent piece from the Votemaster today, March 10.


How good Are experienced presidents, anyway? Suppose you had to choose between two Presidential candidates, one of whom had spent 20 years in Congress plus had considerable other relevant experience and the other of whom had about half a dozen years in the Illinois state legislature and 2 years in Congress. Which one do you think would make a better President?


David Levine and the Votemaster perform an interesting analysis of experience versus excellence in our presidents. Guess what? It's really a great big crap-shoot.

Take a look at this fun analysis.

P.S. In the above example Votemaster was not talking about Hillary and Barack. Read the article to see exactly who he was referring to.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

On the Balz

The Washington Post's Dan Balz has this assessment of the Dems "Superdelegates" quandary.

Many of the 80 uncommitted superdelegates who were contacted over the past several days said they are reluctant to override the clear will of voters. But if Clinton (N.Y.) and Obama (Ill.) are still seen as relatively close in the pledged, or elected, delegate count in June, many said, they will feel free to decide for themselves which of the candidates would make a stronger nominee to run against Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the fall.

"You're going to see a lot of delegates remaining uncommitted," said Rep. Mike Doyle (Pa.), who has not endorsed either candidate. "There's a sense that this is going to Denver not resolved."


Not resolved? What an odd locution. What he really means to say is this, "Voters, please make up your minds so we don't have a bloodbath in Denver. If we Superdelegates have to decide this nomination we are put in the position of either pissing off blacks, if we choose Hillary, or pissing off women if we choose Barack. HELP!!!!"

NYC LIB adds this...

From Huffington Post (remember when Arianna was a conservative?)

Gary Hart: Breaking the Final Rule


It will come as a surprise to many people that there are rules in politics Most of those rules are unwritten and are based on common understandings, acceptable practices, and the best interest of the political party a candidate seeks to lead One of those rules is this: Do not provide ammunition to the opposition party that can be used to destroy your party's nominee This is a hyper-truth where the presidential contest is concerned. By saying that only she and John McCain are qualified to lead the country, particularly in times of crisis, Hillary Clinton has broken that rule, severely damaged the Democratic candidate who may well be the party's nominee, and, perhaps most ominously, revealed the unlimited lengths to which she will go to achieve power ... Read the rest atHuffingtonPost.com

© 2007 HuffingtonPost.com, LLC

Illinois Central

I would like to share this analysis from the always interesting Votemaster concerning former Speaker Dennis Hastert's Illinois congressional seat.

The big news today is about a man from Illinois. No not THAT man, although he won the Wyoming caucuses easily. Bill Foster (D), a nuclear particle physicist who had never run for public office before defeated Jim Oberweis (R) for the seat of retiring congressman and former House Speaker, Dennis Hastert in IL-14, which has a PVI of R+5 and has sent a Republican to Congress for 11 straight terms. Hastert got 60% of the vote in this suburban Chicago district in 2006 and Bush got 55% in 2004. Foster got 53% of the vote yesterday to Oberweis' 47%. Foster will take office Monday but the two will face off in the general election in November. If Obama is on the national ticket, Oberweis will have virtually no chance. As a sitting congressman, Foster becomes a superdelegate and gets to vote at the DNC. He hasn't announced his choice yet, but the smart money is betting he will support Obama. Even a 1-day politician understands that when a guy helps you get elected, you owe him one.

This is a huge defeat for the GOP in a very high profile race that both parties poured over 1 million dollars into and is a very bad omen for the Republicans in the Fall. If they can't even hold a seat they have held for 20+ years in a strongly Republican district against a newbie who knows nothing about politics, what's going to happen in swing districts with stronger candidates? How are they going to beat the large class of Democratic freshmen under these conditions? To make it worse, many people will see this as a proxy for an Obama-McCain race as the Illinois senator made a TV ad for Foster and Sen. McCain campaigned for Oberweis. At www.intrade.com the bettors think there is only an 8% chance the Republicans will take back the House.

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Monster Mash

NYC LIB weighs in with this You Tube video on the Hillary "monster" kerfuffle.

More Grins, and some Giggles

SurveyUSA performed an interesting poll. Using robopollers, they called 600 registered voters in each of the 50 states to see how both Clinton and Obama would fare head to head with McCain in a battle for Electoral College votes, which, as we know from the 2000 election, really determines who will be president.

Both Dems beat McCain!

Here Clinton beats McCain in a fairly close race, 276 versus 262.

The result of an Obama-McCain match-up is really surprising, with Obama cleaning McCain's clock with pretty much a landslide victory, 280-258. Check out the result here.(I urge you to read the caveats and methods section on the SurveyUSA site to understand that this is merely a fun excercise.) Obama's theoretical victory is more wide-ranging geographically than Hillary's, with Obama capturing previous Republican strongholds. Take a look at the excellent Votemaster web site for more discussion.

Just for Grins

A SurveyUSA poll takes on the idea raised by Hillary that she might have Barack as her running mate. The poll looked at both possibilities: Hillary as the presidential candidate with Barack as VP, and then with Barack as pres. with Hillary as VP. The poll here, shows that the voters preferred Hillary in the top slot 48% to 36%. I wonder if this means the voters are coming to prefer Hillary and that Barack's run is over?

If Hillary's win in Ohio can be taken as an augury of the upcoming Pennsylvania shin-dig, then neither candidate will have enough delegates to score a clean win early and before the convention.This is bad news for the Democrats, as it forces their candidates to raise and spend inordinate amounts of cash to battle each other, provide grist for the Republicans as the Democrats are forced to sharpen their attacks against each other, and it presents the public with an image of the Democrats in disarray (so what else is new?). In the meantime, the 71 year old John McCain has the opportunity to stay off the campaign trail and rest, with his heaviest burden being to lift the telephone and ask (beg?)for money.

All in all, the Democrats have a great opportunity to blow this election.

Friday, March 7, 2008

Anonymous Writes....

More "forking" it over to the Republicans by Hillary Rodham Clinton (from Chicago Tribune) ;

"I think that since we now know Sen. (John) McCain will be the nominee for the Republican Party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think it's imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold," the New York senator told reporters crowded into an infant's bedroom-sized hotel conference room in Washington.
(now the kicker......)
"I believe that I've done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that and you'll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy," she said.

March 6, 2008 9:11 PM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Dear Anon,

I think there are two major issues that will decide this election: national security, which is the Republican way of saying "war" without saying "Iraq": and the economy.

The bottom line will be simple. If the Democrats can hammer on the economy, and if the economy is in the tank, the the Dems win. If something happens to bring national security to the fore, then the Republicans win. Easch party owns their respective issue.

As we get closer to the November election watch how these two issues mutate and take on various forms, but make no mistake, war and the economy will decide this election.

Best,
TRM

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Hillary to Dems- Fork You!

Hillary has played her ultimate card against Obama: national security and her claim of greater experience in that area. If she were playing chess, Hillary has just been "forked", that is, she has positioned herself and her opponent, Barack Obama, in a no-win position versus John McCain. Why? Hillary has just made national security the pre-eminent issue in her battle against Obama, claiming he is not competent to protect the nation's children when that red phone rings at 3 am.

Here is what Hillary has done. If Obama wins the nomination, all the Republicans have to do is roll out Hillary's attack against Obama. If Hillary becomes the nominee, she still finds herself in an environment where she has made national security the major issue and she has to defend herself against Mr. National Security himself, John McCain. In both situations, the Democratic nominee is at a distinct disadvantage.

Hillary has forked the Democratic party. Hillary has forked herself