You've Got to be Carefully Taught

Let's take a look at a couple of items.

I think it is generally agreed that the issues in this election, as of today are: the war, the environment/global warming, the economy-energy, housing, health care, education. And I think that you would agree that the Republicans have made a hash of all of these, close to 4,000 American dead in Iraq, the administration not addressing global warming in a meaningful way, a housing market collapse across the country, etc. etc. and so forth, as they say in The King and I.

These are all real issues that the Democrats can and should own.

The Republicans are bound to counter with their usual assortment of fear items: gay marriage, especially in light of the latest ruling by the California Supreme Court allowing it; illegal immigration and gun control. Not one of these issues impacts on the health of this nation but you can bet that the Republicans will play these cards because they have nothing left after eight years in power and no accomplishments to show the electorate.

This year should be a landslide in favor of the Democrats and, indeed, some pundits are starting to say those words, and they point to the Democratic victories in special congressional election in Louisiana, Mississippi and Indiana, where strong Republican districts elected--GASP!-- DEMOCRATS! But I think that the situation is more complex and not as rosy for the Dems. Let's take a look at some polls.

The electorate believes that the war was unnecessary, has been mishandled, and that we should get out. Take a look at this

Quinnipiac University Poll. May 8-12, 2008. N=1,745 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.4.


.


"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"


.

Approve Disapprove Unsure
% % %


5/8-12/08 29 67 4


10/23-29/07 31 65 4


8/7-13/07 29 67 4


6/5-11/07 25 70 6


4/25 - 5/1/07 31 64 5


.


"Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?"


.

Right Wrong Unsure
% % %


5/8-12/08 33 62 5


10/23-29/07 38 55 6


8/7-13/07 35 59 6


6/5-11/07 37 57 7


4/25 - 5/1/07 39 55 6

Nationally, the presumptive Democratic candidate, Barack Obama leads the presumptive Republican candidate, John McCain by single digit margins only. According to an analysis of several different polls and pollsters performed by Real Clear Politics, the margin in Obama's favor is slightly greater that 3%, well within the margin of error for most polls.

Another warning flare for the Democrats has to be this analysis of individual state polls performed by The Votemaster, which shows McCain handily winning 290 electoral votes, more than enough to take the Presidency.

So what is going on here? Why are the Democrats able to make significant inroads on a congressional level into heavily Republican areas while, at the same time, it appears that their candidate for President is in a statistical tie with the Republican candidate on a national basis and losing to him in the Electoral College?

I think several factors are at play. First, many of the issues we face are economic in nature, and Republican districts are showing that the Republican party has failed them here by voting for the Democratic candidate. As Tip O'Neill used to say, "All politics is local." On the other hand the international security issues are still controlled by the Republicans, even though there is great distress over how the war was being conducted.

You cannot discount the canards that the Republicans are spreading about Obama's patriotism and religious affiliations. So many items are being zapped about the Internet attacking Obama for being a Muslim (he isn't) and for not properly displaying appropriate patriotism by wearing an American flag lapel pin (a practice started by the soon to be impeached Richard M. Nixon) or having his hand over heart heart during the playing of the national anthem. All are false issues.

What may give McCain a boost into the Oval Office is simple: racism. Take a look at this article from the Washington Post:

Racist Incidents Give Some Obama Campaigners Pause

By Kevin Merida
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, May 13, 2008; A01

Danielle Ross was alone in an empty room at the Obama campaign headquarters in Kokomo, Ind., a cellphone in one hand, a voter call list in the other. She was stretched out on the carpeted floor wearing lace-less sky-blue Converses, stories from the trail on her mind. It was the day before Indiana's primary, and she had just been chased by dogs while canvassing in a Kokomo suburb. But that was not the worst thing to occur since she postponed her sophomore year at Middle Tennessee State University, in part to hopscotch America stumping for Barack Obama.

Here's the worst: In Muncie, a factory town in the east-central part of Indiana, Ross and her cohorts were soliciting support for Obama at malls, on street corners and in a Wal-Mart parking lot, and they ran into "a horrible response," as Ross put it, a level of anti-black sentiment that none of them had anticipated.

"The first person I encountered was like, 'I'll never vote for a black person," recalled Ross, who is white and just turned 20. "People just weren't receptive."

For all the hope and excitement Obama's candidacy is generating, some of his field workers, phone-bank volunteers and campaign surrogates are encountering a raw racism and hostility that have gone largely unnoticed -- and unreported -- this election season. Doors have been slammed in their faces. They've been called racially derogatory names (including the white volunteers). And they've endured malicious rants and ugly stereotyping from people who can't fathom that the senator from Illinois could become the first African American president.

The contrast between the large, adoring crowds Obama draws at public events and the gritty street-level work to win votes is stark. The candidate is largely insulated from the mean-spiritedness that some of his foot soldiers deal with away from the media spotlight.

Victoria Switzer, a retired social studies teacher, was on phone-bank duty one night during the Pennsylvania primary campaign. One night was all she could take: "It wasn't pretty." She made 60 calls to prospective voters in Susquehanna County, her home county, which is 98 percent white. The responses were dispiriting. One caller, Switzer remembers, said he couldn't possibly vote for Obama and concluded: "Hang that darky from a tree!"

So while people might express their dissatisfaction with the Republicans by voting for Democrats to preserve their economic interests, they may prefer the Republicans on the national security issues. But it may, in fact, be plain old bigotry that puts John McCain in the White House.

You've got to be carefully taught, indeed.