The Fragility of Hope

I admit that the election cycle exhausted me and that I required a brief respite to recover some sense of reality, which presupposes that I ever had one.

The country feels as though we are all hanging around a hospital ICU, waiting for a sick old uncle to die so that we can all finally go out and have a drink. We really don't have the desire to be there but our presence is required, if only for appearances sake.

But what are we waiting for? What we are not waiting for is Barack Obama. what we are waiting for is the opportunity to change or national psychology from one of guilt, shame and remorse to one of hope. But hope is fragile. It tends to shatter when it is impacted by reality. This new hope needs to contend with the mideast,Israel, Palestine, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia, China, Pakistan, Taliban, India, global warming, energy, education, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, liquidity traps, deflation, and inflation. Just for starters. And we are totally broke.

Will this newborn hope be vigorous and long lasting or will it be stillborn?

Hope.

Driven Crazy by Barney- Torture by Any Means

I love this story. Apparently, United States personnel have been using rock music to torture Guantanemo prisoners. The "I Love You" song from Barney is a notorious instrument of this torture, and prisoners often crack within 24 hours of being exposed to that one. Come to think of it, I would crack too, if I had to listen to that drivel. Otherwise, they say loud rock music can bring someone to their knees in short order.(I would disagree and use Woodstock as evidence.) I would have thought that rap music would have the same effect.

The issue of "torture" is interesting. Surely, we agree that jamming bamboo splints under someone's fingernails is torture. Likewise, attaching electrodes to someone's genitals, caning the bottoms of someone's feet, or using your favorite Black and Decker 3/8 inch drill to make holes in someone's anatomy, as Saddam Hussein was wont to do, all constitute torture. However, the reality is that we are engaged in a war of an entirely new type with people who are pledged to an ideology rather than a state, and, even if we invite them over for tea and biscuits, they are not inclined to tell us important information that will protect lives. The terrorists of Mumbai, London, Madrid, New York, and Washington, as well as their handlers and planners, are not inclined to take part in a pleasant sit-down and a discussion of the issues.

It has been reported that the prisoners of Guantanemo have been well fed, supplied with copies of the Koran, and otherwise been well-treated. Loud music, bright lights and sleep deprivation seem more than reasonable to get short term results. Long term intelligence from these people, on the other hand, may require a long term investment in time in order to gain their trust and cooperation.

What is most troubling is that it appears that we do not know who we are holding in Guantanemo. Are these hardened terrorists? Are these people who were in the wrong place at the wrong time? Are there combatants who are not ideologically committed, but who were picked up because they were engaged in an extension of tribal warfare in either Afghanistan and Iraq?

We have a duty and responsibility to hold people in accordance with our both laws and our international agreements, and not on the basis of executive fiat. The fact that we have been doing the latter taints any possible legitimate activity regarding the imprisonment and interrogation of those held in Guantanemo. I therefore predict that once he takes office, President Obama, a former professor of constitutional law, will demand a complete vetting of those held there, with many subsequently being released, and those who remain will either be charged with crimes related to terrorism or they will held under the provisions of the Geneva Convention as it pertains to combatants.

Torture is against the law. Is Barney?

You Missed it!

Well, it's time for year-enders, so lets start with this round-up.

Will China fall? Is Russia moving into Africa? Who is building India's anti-missile system? Are those much-hyped solar panels dangerous to the environment?

All these stories and more as Foreign Policy magazine lists the 10 most important stories you missed 2008.

Jews Tortured In Mumbai

I had read this news before, but since a friend just sent it to me I figured there was still a matter of general interest.

It appears that the terrorists in Mumbai were interested in more than just murdering Jews they found, but also in engaging in a bit of torture. I previous years, I had, on occasion, witnessed autopsies and spoken with pathologists about their work and I know that it takes a special type of horror for one of those professionals to hesitate in describing their findings.

Mumbai Massacre

It's is too early to know who really is behind the terrorist attack in Mumbai, but it does not appear to have the hallmarks of an Al-Queda operation, specifically large explosive devices, primarily car or truck bombs, in highly visible symbolic public edifices.

Until more information comes out, my deepest sympathy to the families of the dead, to the wounded, and prayers for those still held hostage.

My strongest support to the Indian government in battling the terrorists.

Grappling with Reality

One of President-elect Obama's characteristics that give me great comfort is that the is fully engaged with reality. No more of George Bush's religious fantasies. No more of Bush's wishful thinking. No more of his idiocy. Obama will make many mistakes, to be sure, but both his mistakes and his successes will result from an assessment of facts, or the facts as they are known.

All the Right Moves

Barack Obama has not committed a false step since becoming president-elect. The country is on the precipice of economic disaster. We are fighting two wars in woe-begotten lands. Yet Obama shows what he has shown all along: a cool rationality and appreciation of the complexities that await him when he finally shoulders the mantle of the presidency.

Politically, he reached out to John McCain to show one and all that the war has ended and that it truly is time to bind up the nation's political wounds. Any speculation that McCain would soon find a place in Obama's cabinet were just that, speculation, baseless and uninformed. But the image of the two former combatants sitting side by side and making uneasy conversation showed that the self-righteousness of the Bush administration was over. I suppose if Obama could talk to McCain so soon after the calumnies that the Republicans dumped on him, then the president-elect should have no problem talking with some of the nastier fellows on the world scene such as Putin and Ahmadinejad. Besides, he could always tell al-queda's Al-Zawahiri, "Your mother!"

On the economic front, Obama has taken several important actions to address the critical state of the nation's and world's economies. He has put in place what seems like a first rate and experienced team whose focus is on action rather than ideology. The president-elect is not promising the immediate alleviation of the economic woes that afflict us but he is promising immediate attention during the interregnum and, once he takes office, immediate action. It is far more important at this juncture that he addresses the psychology of the recession than the policy of recession. For the latter, the appropriate time is January 21, 2009. The markets have apparently given their imprimatur to both his appointments and his statements regarding where he intends to lead this nation, his ideas for job creation, infrastructure repair, and the survival of American industry.

Obama is setting the bar very low regarding the impact that he will make during the mythic first 100 days of his adminstration. He has stated that the economy will get worse before it gets better. This may well be true, but knowing that he is working on ideas, and that he will be prepared to implement polices in less than 60 days already begins to lift the gloom that was beginning to take on an unbearable and palpable physicality.

So the enormous impact of president-elect Obama can be stated simply: We have not yet turned a corner but we know things will get better.

Economic Self-Flagellation

Yes, the mortgage crisis revealed the house of cards that so many of the banks had constructed. Yes, the economic crisis revealed the lack of proper regulation and transparency that leads to confidence in the markets. Yes the stock market is down from its high from about a year ago (just when I made a major investment! Note to readers-when I buy, you should sell!). Yes, unemployment is rising.

But talk of a new "Great Depression" that is rampant in the media is just bizarre. First, consider that the government is taking some action to increase market liquidity and, without doubt, government actions to restore stability to the markets will be much more aggressive once the new Democratic administration and congress are both in place in January. On both legal and philosophical bases, the concept of government intervention in the marketplace is light years ahead of where it was in 1929.

People who have actually lived through the Great Depression must be both concerned and, at the same time, somewhat amused at the current panic, and panic, an irrational fear- is exactly what we are witnessing. During the Depression more than 20% of American were unemployed, while at present the rate is 6% and growing. During the Depression hundreds of banks failed, but according the the FDIC, here ONLY TEN BANKS HAVE FAILED SINCE SEPTEMBER 2008, many have been acquired by other banks. Further, during the Great Depression, the FDIC did not exist, and people actually lost their life's savings. Today, the FDIC insures deposits up to $250,000.

One must ask if the media are blowing this economic crisis out of proportion? Are we actually in a severe recession, brought on by unwise practices in the mortgage and investment sectors? And will aggressive action by the Obama administration mitigate the impacts of this recession?

Recessions, for whatever reason, are an inevitable part of the business cycle. As someone who has lived through previous recessions, it seems to me that that a recession is exactly what we are living in today. After previous recessions passed, many economists said that government interventions had no real effect on the outcome of the recession. What is important is the the positive psychological impact that occurs when it seems that the government cares about the people and is trying to do something to alleviate conditions. I believe that whatever Obama's policies might be, the psychological impact will exceed the political impact and that the recession will be over in two years. Any thoughts?

Narrow Minda, Broad Lawns

The writer H.L. Mencken called the broad expanse of America "the land of narrow minds and broad lawns".

I saw this on Eric Alterman's "Altercation" blog and couldn't resist sharing ti here. let me know if this makes you shudder, too.

Name: Andy

Hometown: Carrollton, GA

Eric,

A student in my freshman world geography course came by to visit me yesterday. Initially, she was concerned about whether she would be able to earn a B in the course and regain her scholarship. As we talked, she let slip her profound despair over the larger "stuff happening" in the economy, which was leading her to view choosing a major as a futile exercise. What's the point?

As she explained, "This is happening because we have turned away from Christ, and he's not to be caught off guard by that. And now, 'many people' believe that we have elected the anti-Christ as our leader." When I asked, she explained that Obama's "Muslim upbringing," charisma, and "promises to do big things" revealed his true identity. She appeared stunned to hear that Obama is and was raised a Christian. Nevertheless, she continued, the only way out of the world financial crisis is for Christians "to drop to their knees."

I asked her if she thought Christians could, in that way, improve the job market by the time she graduated in five years. "No," she said, "I shouldn't even be here by then. I'm a true-believer, and we're supposed to not be around when the Antichrist comes. He'll reveal himself."

Yikes, what a depressing meeting on my daughter's first birthday.

60s Redux?

I know a lot of people are saying Obama is the new John Kennedy, but this business of bringing back the 60s may be going a bit too far. In the past few days I've seen too many guys in their early 20s sporting brush cuts and wearing those silly almost brimless hats and skinny ties that we wore in those days. This is just bad fashion. Or anti-fashion.

Paul Krugman

Is it just me or have you noticed the absence of Paul Krugman from the Times lately? Did I miss some notice that he was taking a vacation? Or perhaps he is being vetted by the Obama people for a position in the administration. I can see him heading up the Council of Economic Advisers.

New Directions for Saudi Arabia?

Last week, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah held an inter-religious conference in New York City. A participant in that conference said King Abdullah conveyed several important thoughts that would indicate a change in Saudi policy;

1. The King recognized that Saudi policy for the past century had been ineffective and had led to unnecessary conflicts.

2. The election of Barack Obama, an African-American, to the Presidency revealed the United States to be the democracy that we had always claimed to be.

3. The Kingdom was funding less extreme forms of Islam outside Saudi Arabia proper to tamp down the fires of radical jihadism.


The King's remarks seem to indicate a marked change in policy from that adhered to previously by rulers of Saudi Arabia. However, Abdullah is 84 years old, and it is not possible to surmise who long he might live and to what degree his course change can take hold before he dies. Undoubtedly, a new leader will arise from the House of Saud, and it is uncertain whether he will follow the course set by his predecessor. That being said, it is extremely interesting to hear a Saudi King remark about the negative impact of the extreme Wahhabi Islam that the Kingdom has bought off for the past century in order to maintain power there.

Finally , it is interesting to hear the King remark about the election of Barack Obama in the glowing terms he used. While some pundits are comparing Obama to Franklin Roosevelt based on the current economic crisis, Obama's influence can be far more wide ranging, so that he is really compared to John Kennedy insofar as the positive feelings that erupted worldwide after his election.

But positive feelings go only so far when one is confronting adversaries, and less then true friends may be more than willing to stand aside while the United States continues to bare the full weight of the battle against totalitarians, or as a friend of mine once put it, "I'll hold your coat, let's you and him fight."

Best Real News Headline Ever!

From the MSNBC.com website we have this gem.

Helicopters collect whale snot from blowholes

My previous favorite was the famous New York Post headline which described a decapitated body in ecdysiast's bar:

Headless Body in Topless Bar

The Pardoner-in-Chief

President-elect Obama is throwing his arm around Sen. Joe Lieberman to keep Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid from 86in the Connecticut senator from the Democratic Party.

As reported by MSNBC.COM,here, Obama is more interested in creating a sense of bi-partisanship than in engaging in intra-party squabbling. Although it is a noble gesture by Obama, his move puts Reid in an unenviable position for how is he to maintain party discipline when he can't boot a Democrat who spoke in favor of the Republican candidate at the Republican convention.

I admit that the concept of "party discipline" is alien to the Democrats, but if Reid can't toss Joe out of the party, he has to take the rogue Dem to the woodshed for a sound trashing. Admittedly, Joe votes almost a straight Democratic line on all the issues except the Iraq war, but he committed the unpardonable sin of speaking bad about another Democrat and in campaigning for the Republican. Of course, Joe will lose his committee chairmanships, and perhaps come January his office will be a former janitor's closet, but despite Reid's desires, Joe Lieberman will still sit with the Democrats.

It seems that Barack Obama has just issued his first pardon, and he hasn't yet taken the oath of office.

Veterans Day II

I attended the Veterans Day parade in New York City today. It was a beautiful, sunny, crisp day, perfect for a parade, and more perfect to honor the veterans. As usual, the parade was sparsely attended, nothing like the ethnic parades that jam the rich residential part of Fifth Avenue. The veterans parade is relegated to a lower part of Fifth, more gritty and commercial, and no crowds press against the barricades that line the street.

Of course they had fresh troops there looking great and marching to the music. But also there were a lot of real vets there, older, more stooped but trying to walk tall. A few of the vets rolled by in wheelchairs with less than half their bodies. Some were transported in buses.

There is a difference between seeing the young and healthy guys who are fresh from boot camp march up the avenue while the older guys who have suffered so much and can only roll. The dead feel no pain. Those so grievously wounded feel nothing but pain.

It was a good day for a parade.

Heard it Through the Grapevine

I love this interregnum between administrations. More rumors than you can imagine pop up as to who will to named to which cabinet post. The other day a friend called me and said, "Did you hear that XXX will be named to YYY position?" I told him to forget that he had ever heard that rumor and to take two aspirin and call me in January.

The rumors pop up for the usual reasons for these things. People are afraid of the unknown future and they want to exercise a degree of control over their lives. All of the names are, of course, nonsense, and they have as much of a chance of being correct in their assumptions as those unlimited number of monkeys pounding away at that unlimited number of typewriters who eventually write Shakespeare.

Names hit the rumor mill for a variety of reasons. Some are placed there by people who want to inject an idea for a possible position. Some are released by those famous "unnamed sources" to see how they would play in the media: would they be shot down like so many clay pigeons at a skeet range or would they fly like the real ones? Some rumors come from too-active minds who think they have all the answers.

One of the more interesting rumors about is that President-Elect Obama will ask Current Secretary of defense Gates to stay on for at least one year. One source of this particular rumor is the Republican inspired and oft-cited belief that Democrats just don't or can't "get" the army-navy-air force thing and that they would rather weave hemp quilts down by the riverside.

While Secretary Gates has proved to be far better in his job than his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld, there is no reason to believe that a Democrat can't do the job. One Democrat fully capable of handling the position is former former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, but Nunn is 70 and that could be a deciding factor for Obama.

I believe that Obama is the kind of person who will hold his cards close to the vest and that we will know who he has in mind when he makes an announcement. The one thing that concerns me is whether Obama will chose a cabinet based on race and gender so that it "reflects" America, as his confidant, Valerie Jarrett, said recently. In other words how far will he go in designing a cabinet for appearance over functionality?

Until you hear names coming directly from the president-elect's mouth, it is better to follow the advice in that old r&b song:

Believe half of what you see, and none of what you hear.

Supersize It!

From a friend:

Say what you will, but remember this.......Today, you could buy a share of GM and a share of Ford for less than the cost of a Big Mac meal.......

Ford $1.80
GM $2.92
_____
$4 .7 2

Veterans Day

We salute all those who fought for our freedoms. More important, we remember and honor those who died for our freedoms.

We hope that the day will soon come, when the longing expressed in the ancient words of the prophet Isaiah achieve fulfillment:

they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruninghooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more.

Election 2008- Winners and Losers

The rush of election night is over. It was a wonderful and cleansing experience, more from the sense that George W. Bush will be leaving the most powerful political office in the world and that he will not be replaced by a political clone, which is what the otherwise estimable John McCain morphed into with his desire to capture the Bush/Rove constituency.

The election of Barack Obama is not the dawning of the Age of Aquarius. Nor have we been blessed by the presence of the person Oprah Winfrey has declared to be "The One."

Obama will face hard choices from the moment the parades end on January 20th. He will have to lead this nation and the world from the brink of an economic abyss not seen since the Great Depression. He will have to set a course between Scylla and Charybdis as he finds a way to deal with global warming at a time when American industry is failing. He will have to balance the reality of a government dead broke from the insane economic policies of his predecessor while he tries to implement a full panoply of social welfare programs. As VP-Elect Joe Biden quiet accurately stated, this president will be tested and tried by our many enemies shortly after he takes office. Obama is often compared to President John Kennedy. The question that must be asked is whether Obama will prove to be the Kennedy who allowed himself to be mugged by Nikita Khrushchev in Vienna, or will Obama prove to be more like the Kennedy who coolly dealt with the Cuban Missile Crisis and averted nuclear war?

So despite the post-election giddiness that currently prevails at home and abroad, perilous times are upon us. But perilous times are always upon us: war, depression, war, the threat of nuclear annihilation, war, racism, economic failures. It never ends, nor will it ever end.

But there are some clear winners and losers that will emerge from this election, and I believe the winners are worthy of celebration. Let's take a look:

WINNERS:
The Constitution of the United States
The Rule of Law
Science
Reason
Education
The Middle Class
Rush Limbaugh and right-wing talk radio. They will have plenty to talk about for the next four years.
Rational market regulation

LOSERS:
The evil myths of the Nixon / Atwater / Rove / Schmidt Republican political machine
Creationism
Right Wing Evangelicals
Laissez-faire investment markets


We could have done a lot worse.

The Army of Dawn III

The mission is over. The battle is decided. Victory is sweet.

Hail to the Chief

Barack Obama, your life is no longer yours.

You are now enveloped in the formidable security bubble that the Secret Service controls, a bubble designed to protect you. Yet, the same bubble will isolate you from the very sources of your strength.

Barack Obama, you now carry on your shoulders the hopes and burdens of the people of this nation. You will age beyond your years. Barack Obama, you now carry on your shoulders the weight of the hopes of so many people of the world. The burden will be unbearable at times.

Barack Obama, sleep well tonight. It might be the last time you sleep well for many years.

John McCain, American

In a concession speech of incredible grace, John McCain finally reveled the man who could have been the President-Elect this evening. McCain reached out to Barack Obama, a man who was his opponent, not his enemy, and he tried to teach his followers, finally, that a difference in politics is not dishonorable or traitorous.

Well done, John McCain. If you had made some different decisions, and had some better luck, you would have made the last speech tonight.

9:25 PM EST November 4,2008

MSNBC has just projected that OHIO and its 20 Electoral VOtes will fall to Barack Obama. If true, Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States of America. As President John Kennedy once said,"The torch has been passed to a new generation."

As a nation we can not ignore our history, but we are no longer constrained by it.

The Army at Dawn II

Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK
Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK
Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK

The ancient Shoup voting machines that New York City uses record each voter's choices.

Into the booth walks a middle aged black man with his 10 year old son.
Ka-CHUNK-the big red handle is pulled to the right.
Snik-snik-snik-snik- as the small lever next to each candidate's name is pulled down.
Ka-CHUNK and the big red handle is pulled back to the left and the vote is recorded.
The man and his son walk out, smiles on their faces big enough to reflect history.

Into the booth walks a young black woman.
Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK
She backs out of the machine, looks a bit puzzled, turns around and smiles. It was her first vote.

Into the booth walks an elderly white woman.
Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK
Mere seconds pass and she exits. She has done this many times.

Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK
Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK
Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK

The six voting machines for six election districts in this part of the Bronx, New York are singing.

At 8:00am, I stand on line in the basement of a large apartment building. I am voter number 115 and there is a long line behind me for my district. The poll workers says that the polls were open at 6:00am and the lines were more than 100 feet long.

Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK

An elderly man shuffles out from behind the machine's curtains and I walk in. I have never missed voting in an election. I have been accused of being an idealist. I plead guilty.

Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK.

I have made my choices. I know I am now a part of history. Yes, a minuscule part of history, but a part of it nonetheless.

Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK

Sometimes democracy sounds funny.

Ka-CHUNK-snik-snik-snik-snik-Ka-CHUNK

I smile.

The Armies of the Dawn

Like armies throughout history, this one will begin to stir at first light. It will prepare itself for the day of battle and march forward with determination to do its duty.The issue will be decided by night.

OK. A bit of overwriting, but it contains more than an element of truth. After almost two years of intra and inter political party battling, after almost two years of seeing the worst and, rarely, the best of our politicians, tomorrow morning, what appears to be an almost unprecedented number of American voters will march to the polls and stand for hours to use the only weapon they possess, their vote, to change the government of this country. Not with bullets, and not with bombs, and not with murders and kidnappings, the government of what is still the most powerful nation on earth will peacefully transform itself yet again.

Faced with perhaps the clearest set of choices between two competing political philosophies, the American people will determine the course of this nation for the next four years. Already, this has been a campaign without precedent as one major political party has nominated a black man as a candidate while the other party has nominated a woman for vice president.

Tomorrow evening, millions of Americans will be glued to televisions as they watch the results roll in and as they root for their candidate to win. Victors will be crowned. Losers will concede. In both cases, some will perform in their rolls with grace, some less so. All will accept the decisions of the voters.

On January 20th, in Washington, D.C. oaths will be taken, cannons will fire and soldiers will march. But those cannons will be firing salutes, not shells. And those soldiers will be on parade, not on heir way to do battle.

Such is the transfer of power in this nation.

Swimming In Obama's Acetylcholine

Last night The Radical Moderate was granted unfettered access to a space between an axon and a dendrite in Barack Obama's mind. The following is an unedited recording of what we heard.

Damn, I am so tired , and so jazzed up that I can't stop. Who would have thought I would be in this position a year ago. Who could have thought it? Only with a handful of heavy duty drugs, man. Miss my mom . Wish she could have been here to see this. She would be laughing her ass off. Hope granny lives to see it. How cool. Hope she can come to Washington to see the inaugural. Too much to hope for but she can see it on TV.

Two days. I've got to keep his up for two more days. Then got to keep them from trying to steal it. I've got lawyers ready in Ohio and Florida if the Republicans try to pull the same shit they always do. Damn, folks are standing in line six hours to vote for me. Fuckin' incredible. I know I have this thing wrapped up if there are no surprises. Please, Please, Russia, don't get stupid and invade some place again. That'll just make folks afraid and vote for McCain. I've got this thing wrapped up. Dear God! I'm gonna be president of the UNITED FUCKING STATES OF AMERICA! I wonder what it will be like. That Secret Service bubble is gonna strangle me, but they sure as shit don't want to see some whacko off me like Kennedy. Those two nut-bars in Tennessee, man , I'm sure there are a lot of others like them who don't want to see a "nigger" president. I've seen some of those things going around the internet. Hell, if Colin Powell had the balls, he would have been the first black president, but his wife didn't want to go through all this shit. Michelle's been great about all this. So have the kids. I owe them a lot.

Let's see, Let's see, what do I have to do next? I'm blasting McCain all over the fuckin' map. Even have him trying to cover his ass in his own home state. My infomercial was a hit. Monster hit. Home Run with bases loaded.And that guy can't even read a teleprompter. Cleaned his clock in the debates, too!

let's see... I've got the northeast sewn up. I've got the West Coast. Looks like I'm dead certain in all the states Kerry carried in 04. I've got tons of money and I'm attacking John here it hurts most.. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia. Man, what a trip if I beat him in Arizona. I'm attacking in the South. Blacks are gonna turn out like never before for me. Florida. Don't know. The Jews still don't trust me, and I think the "youth vote" will never show up. Might lose Florida, but it will be close. Pennsylvania. I need Pennsylvania. If I get Penn a lot of others are going to fall into place.If I get Penn, I don't need Ohio. I'll send Joe Biden there. They love him there. He was born there. I'll send him to every frikin' diner and outhouse. I'll have him knock on every door he can find. Hillary. They love her there, too. I'll send her around. I'll hit Philly and Pittsburgh to get those big crowds pumped up and to get the media. Don't need Missouri, but it's too close to give it up. Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada. Gotta get there and hit them hard. I need Colorado and either New Mexico or Nevada and I win.

I'd love to get a landslide. Just blow the doors off the Republicans. Get a mandate and run with it. Shut up Rush and those assholes. Come to think of it, they would love to see me elected. It'll keep them in business for another eight years.

Economy sucks. We can get it together. I've got Volker, I've got Buffet, I've got Rubin. Heavy hitters! Like the '27 Yankees. I can be like Roosevelt and get us moving. Kids will read about me. Trippy!

Two days left. gotta keep running. Those radio guys say I'm measuring the drapes in the White House.. Damn I'd love to measure the bed there. Wonder what it would be like to nail Michelle in the Lincoln Bedroom. Trippy! Couple of blacks doin' the nasty in the Lincoln Bedroom. Bet old Abe would laugh his ass off.

Damn, I am so tired! Two days. Two Days!

The Sins of John McCain

The Radical Moderate was granted unique access to Sen. John McCain's synapses last night. The following is an unedited recording of the thoughts that passed along the neuron trail.

Ahhh, I need another bourbon. Been battling this thing for what, two years now, and what do I have to show for it? This pissant Obama, nothing more than a junior senator is kicking my ass all over the country. What the hell has Obama ever done in his whole life? Another frikin lawyer. A community organizer. what the hell is a "community organizer"? How many years was he a state senator in Illinois? seven, five? and the damned people make out like he is frikin' Abraham Lincoln. makes me sick. He hasn't done shit. I've been a Senator for twenty six years. Twenty six years! I worked with Teddy Kennedy on immigration reform. Got the Republicans pissed at that. I worked with that liberal Paul Feingold on campaign finance reform. they call it the McCain-Feingold Bill. Got everyone pissed at me for that. Told the Republicans that global warming was real. Got laughed at for that from the shit kickers. That's what being a maverick is all about. That's the real deal. And they all make it out like I'm just channeling some old TV show. Now this pissant comes out of the senate cloakroom like some frikin' saviour and everything that I've done gets trashed.

Steve Schmitt. I'll kick his ass good when this thing is over. I wanted Joe Lieberman as my VP but he said No, the base wouldn't allow it and we could pick up women who would have voted for Hillary. I should have told him to fuck the base cause Joe was a guy I trusted. And women who voted for Hillary weren't going to vote for me anyhow. I worked with Joe for years, traveled the world's danger spots with him. He always covered my six. If I had picked Joe they all would have seen I was serious about solving all of our problems. I would have been hero, reaching across party lines to make this country great again. But I listened to that asshole Schmitt, and I wound up with this babe moose hunter who talks in tongues and is half a step away from being indicted in Alaska for some shit she pulled there. She even scares the shit out of me. I should have listened to my heart and picked Joe. Damn, did I screw the pooch on that one.

I can't fuckin' believe this Obama guy. He hasn't done shit. I've given my life to this country. My father gave his life for this country. My grandfather dedicated his life for this country. And this guy comes out of nowhere and says "change" and the people have a frikin' orgasm.

Bush. George Fuckin' Bush. His ass gets kicked, too. Not only is he totally incapable of fighting a war, but he has that other asshole, Rumsfield, as his SecDef. One's a born idiot, the other just acts like one. Boy, did they make Iraq a total cluster fuck. When they finally put together the surge, the Arabs saw we were serious and started to come around. But that Rummy wanted to fight the war on the cheap and we almost got our heads handed to us. And Bush, that idiot, has that attention deficit disorder thing. He couldn't leave well enough alone and take care of Osama and the Taliban first before overextending us to Iraq. Warfighters! Shit! And that Bush is a lying son of a bitch too. Said I had an illegitimate black kid in 2000 in South Carolina and that cost me the primary there. He knew I adopted a kid from Mother Theresa's orphanage, but the gutless wonder lied about it. He says he was a fighter pilot. My ass! No fighter pilot would dream of giving up a chance to strap into a jet, but this guy skated his duty. And then he gets to be president, and he didn't even win the popular vote. Then I kiss his ass for eight years to get credibility with the party. But when I hugged that son of a bitch on stage... damn.. I kissed his ass for eight years. Voted for his stupid programs 90% of the time cause I still wanted to be president..and I can't even get him on stage with me because of the shit storm that he is leaving. What a laugh. And now that things started to look good in Iraq after the surge, cause I was right, it gets buried in the back pages while Bushie has to fuck up the economy and give the Dems the issues that they are strongest at. Damn, the Vietnamese tortured me, but Bush fucked me twice! And what's worse is, I let him. Man, I just bent over and asked for it. I really was a maverick in 2000 and loved my "Straight Talk Express". But I sold my soul for my chance in 2008. For what?

Pennsylvania! I gotta beat him in Pennsylvania! The polls close early enough there and if I can get Pennsylvania, it won't look like such a sure thing. I gotta stop the avalanche in Pennsylvania. I'll campaign like hell in the middle of that state. Even Carville says it's like Alabama and I sure ain't gonna lose Alabama! Then I'll take Florida and Ohio and Missouri. I'll go for Colorado. Shit, three days to go. This kid is killing me.

Ahhh, damn. I need another bourbon. Three days.

One, One and One, One and Two, One and Three....

I'm just contemplating some numbers, courtesy of the Vote-Masters web site(click on the yellow map to the right)and using his algorithm, which uses poll results for a one wee trailing period.

My assumptions: the margin of error for these polls is approximately 3%; to be truly outside the margin of error one must have a lead of twice the margin of error; the so-called Bradley Effect, which states that minority candidates receive higher poll numbers than actual votes, has not been proved.

Therefore, I believe Sen. Obama has a safe lead, defined as equal to or greater than 10% in the following states: WA, OR, CA, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE ,MD, and Washington, D.C., for a total of 241 safe Electoral Votes.

Using a definition of a probable lead, that being greater than 6%, but less, than 10%, Sen. Obama has leads that fit that criterion in NM, MN, and WV. That gives hime and additional 22 Electoral Votes. I do not have full confidence in those WV polls due to the known difficulty of conducting polls in that state, so eliminating WV's 5 EV's, add another 17 to Obama's 241 and you have 258 EV's for him. He needs 12 more.

CO shows Obama with a steady lead over time and he currently leads by 6 percentage points there. If you are a betting person, put CO's 9 EV's in the Obama column. Likewise for MO, with 11 EV's which currently shows a 6 point Obama lead, but considering that state's voting history in presidential elections, I have little confidence in those numbers and neither should Obama. However, those states could put him over the top, but don't count on it.

I believe we will know the winner of the 2008 Presidential election when we get the results of the states east of the Mississippi.

If Obama now focuses his efforts on the traditional battle ground states of OH and FL, as well as VA, he might just make history of a most exquisite sort.

Ethnics Politics at its Worst!!!

Doin' the Pakistani Fatwa

The fine folks at Abu Muqawama share this little tidbit on the mix of religion and politics in Placid Pakistan:

In crazy Islamicist news, President Zardari has been the target of a fatwa issued by Maulana Abdul Ghafar of Islamabad's Lal Masjid. What was it that provoked Ghafar’s ire? Was it Zardari’s shady business practices, allegations of corruption or money laundering? No…it was Sarah Palin. Troy could not make this stuff up. Apparently Zardari's indecent gestures (shaking hands), filthy remarks (saying he’d like to hug her) and repeated praise of a non-Muslim lady wearing a short skirt is not only “un-Islamic but also unbecoming of a head of state of a Muslim country.” After getting that off his chest, Ghafar added a demand that the military operations in the tribal areas be ceased since they are “creating hatred amongst the general public against the Pakistan army.” Unsurprisingly, Ghafar is a close relative of the fanatic Red Mosque cleric Maujlana Abdul Rashid Ghazi, who was killed by security forces during Operation Silence in July 2007.

However, more to teh point is their assessment on changes in top level ISI personnel and what it might mean for the fight against the Taliban:

Pakistan Army chief, Gen. Kayani, has appointed Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha as director general of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Prior to his appointment, Pasha was Director-General of Military Operations, overseeing the Army’s operations in the NWFP and FATA. Pasha is succeeding Lt. Gen. Nadeem Taj, a relative of Musharraf’s, who was viewed by many to be a key figure in the “double game” Pakistan has been playing with the U.S. on the one hand and the militants in Tribal areas on the other. So, what does this change mean for the U.S. and operations in Afghanistan? Reports indicate that the U.S. has been pushing for Taj’s replacement—believing that intelligence shared with the ISI by Americans was passed to the Taliban. What will Pasha’s appointment mean for the Pakistan Army’s approach to militancy and terrorism? What will it mean for US-Pakistani relations? After a week-long hiatus, the U.S. attacked another target in Pakistan's tribal areas, while Pakistani security forces are still under orders to open fire if American forces attempt to cross the Pakistan/Afghan border. Finally, it is worth noting that in making this appointment, along with that of the new corps commanders in Rawalpindi, Bahawalpur and Karachi, General Kayani (who led the ISI from 2004-2007) now has a number of individuals in key offices who owe their position to him and not to Musharraf.

"Basics" My A**

The marketing gurus have got to be kidding to come up with this product. And they call it "Back to Basics"? How about a frying pan? Anyhow, I won't be buying it until it also takes care of my shower, shaves me and brushes my teeth.

I'm Perverse

I admit it. I almost, actually, really want Sarah Palin elected Vice President so that I can watch Tina Fey make fun of her for at least four years. OK. That might be asking the country to give up a bit too much in order to humor me.

In the alternative, here is a link to Daily Kos where you can watch Saturday Night Live's Tina Fey debate "Joe Biden". For safety's sake, please wear your seat belt s0 that you don't fall on the floor from laughing.

RAILROADED!

From the Daily Kos here.

Excellent!

Great work Aden Nak for this piece!

Trust me! Check out this site.

Palin-Biden 2

Alex writes:

Alex said...

"minor victory for palin"

-- Disagree. Without even analyzing what she said [including supporting giving the VP MORE power than under Cheney], she's going to come out of it still looking like an imbecile, albeit one that memorizes talking points incredibly well. This is important for the undecideds, who respond to warm fuzzies more than substance.

However, with all the manic down home-isms, the winking, and the mindless "maverick" claims she came off as more a caricature than a candidate taking the evening seriously.

Biden, on the other hand, performed fantastically given the unique nature of the opponent. He seemed authentic, respectful, and knew when to shut up (for the most part).

This Palin performance won't win over a significant amount of the undecideds that will win the election.
October 2, 2008 11:56 PM

Palin-Biden

A friend writes:

I found this on MSNBC's comment board.

Watched the "debate" with my husband who is a McCain supporter. We
agreed to offer no comments while it was on. After about 25 minutes, he
muttered, "I can't take it any more," and left. I stayed through it all
and all I could think of was, she really IS a post turtle. You drive
down a country road and see a turtle on a post; you know it didn't get
there by itself; it doesn't belong up there; it doesn't know what to do
now that it's there; and you wonder about the guy who put it there.

Best of the Worst- The 2008 Ig Noble Prizes!

They're here! The 2008 Ig Noble Prizes were handed out last night at Harvard. Diet Coke as a Spermicide? Strippers make more money when they are ovulating? All true, according to teh best of the wrost research.

Here are the winners:

The 2008 Ig Nobel Prize Winners



NUTRITION PRIZE. Massimiliano Zampini of the University of Trento, Italy and Charles Spence of Oxford University, UK, for electronically modifying the sound of a potato chip to make the person chewing the chip believe it to be crisper and fresher than it really is.
REFERENCE: "The Role of Auditory Cues in Modulating the Perceived Crispness and Staleness of Potato Chips," Massimiliano Zampini and Charles Spence, Journal of Sensory Studies, vol. 19, October 2004, pp. 347-63.

PEACE PRIZE. The Swiss Federal Ethics Committee on Non-Human Biotechnology (ECNH) and the citizens of Switzerland for adopting the legal principle that plants have dignity.
REFERENCE: "The Dignity of Living Beings With Regard to Plants. Moral Consideration of Plants for Their Own Sake"
WHO ATTENDED THE CEREMONY: Urs Thurnherr, member of the committee.

ARCHAEOLOGY PRIZE. Astolfo G. Mello Araujo and José Carlos Marcelino of Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil, for measuring how the course of history, or at least the contents of an archaeological dig site, can be scrambled by the actions of a live armadillo.
REFERENCE: "The Role of Armadillos in the Movement of Archaeological Materials: An Experimental Approach," Astolfo G. Mello Araujo and José Carlos Marcelino, Geoarchaeology, vol. 18, no. 4, April 2003, pp. 433-60.

BIOLOGY PRIZE. Marie-Christine Cadiergues, Christel Joubert,, and Michel Franc of Ecole Nationale Veterinaire de Toulouse, France for discovering that the fleas that live on a dog can jump higher than the fleas that live on a cat.
REFERENCE: "A Comparison of Jump Performances of the Dog Flea, Ctenocephalides canis (Curtis, 1826) and the Cat Flea, Ctenocephalides felis felis (Bouche, 1835)," M.C. Cadiergues, C. Joubert, and M. Franc, Veterinary Parasitology, vol. 92, no. 3, October 1, 2000, pp. 239-41.

MEDICINE PRIZE. Dan Ariely of Duke University, USA, for demonstrating that high-priced fake medicine is more effective than low-priced fake medicine.
REFERENCE: "Commercial Features of Placebo and Therapeutic Efficacy," Rebecca L. Waber; Baba Shiv; Ziv Carmon; Dan Ariely, Journal of the American Medical Association, March 5, 2008; 299: 1016-1017.
WHO ATTENDED THE CEREMONY: Dan Ariely

COGNITIVE SCIENCE PRIZE. Toshiyuki Nakagaki of Hokkaido University, Japan, Hiroyasu Yamada of Nagoya, Japan, Ryo Kobayashi of Hiroshima University, Atsushi Tero of Presto JST, Akio Ishiguro of Tohoku University, and Ágotá Tóth of the University of Szeged, Hungary, for discovering that slime molds can solve puzzles.
REFERENCE: "Intelligence: Maze-Solving by an Amoeboid Organism," Toshiyuki Nakagaki, Hiroyasu Yamada, and Ágota Tóth, Nature, vol. 407, September 2000, p. 470.
WHO ATTENDED THE CEREMONY: Toshiyuki Nakagaki, Ryo Kobayashi, Atsushi Tero

ECONOMICS PRIZE. Geoffrey Miller, Joshua Tybur and Brent Jordan of the University of New Mexico, USA, for discovering that a professional lap dancer's ovulatory cycle affects her tip earnings.
REFERENCE: "Ovulatory Cycle Effects on Tip Earnings by Lap Dancers: Economic Evidence for Human Estrus?" Geoffrey Miller, Joshua M. Tybur, Brent D. Jordan, Evolution and Human Behavior, vol. 28, 2007, pp. 375-81.
WHO ATTENDED THE CEREMONY: Geoffrey Miller and Brent Jordan

PHYSICS PRIZE. Dorian Raymer of the Ocean Observatories Initiative at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA, and Douglas Smith of the University of California, San Diego, USA, for proving mathematically that heaps of string or hair or almost anything else will inevitably tangle themselves up in knots.
REFERENCE: "Spontaneous Knotting of an Agitated String," Dorian M. Raymer and Douglas E. Smith, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 104, no. 42, October 16, 2007, pp. 16432-7.
WHO ATTENDED THE CEREMONY: Dorian Raymer

CHEMISTRY PRIZE. Sharee A. Umpierre of the University of Puerto Rico, Joseph A. Hill of The Fertility Centers of New England (USA), Deborah J. Anderson of Boston University School of Medicine and Harvard Medical School (USA), for discovering that Coca-Cola is an effective spermicide, and to Chuang-Ye Hong of Taipei Medical University (Taiwan), C.C. Shieh, P. Wu, and B.N. Chiang (all of Taiwan) for discovering that it is not.
REFERENCE: "Effect of 'Coke' on Sperm Motility," Sharee A. Umpierre, Joseph A. Hill, and Deborah J. Anderson, New England Journal of Medicine, 1985, vol. 313, no. 21, p. 1351.
REFERENCE: "The Spermicidal Potency of Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola," C.Y. Hong, C.C. Shieh, P. Wu, and B.N. Chiang, Human Toxicology, vol. 6, no. 5, September 1987, pp. 395-6. [NOTE: THE JOURNAL LATER CHANGED ITS NAME. NOW CALLED "Human & experimental toxicology"]
WHO ATTENDED THE CEREMONY: Deborah Anderson, and C.Y. Hong's daughter Wan Hong

LITERATURE PRIZE. David Sims of Cass Business School. London, UK, for his lovingly written study "You Bastard: A Narrative Exploration of the Experience of Indignation within Organizations."
REFERENCE: "You Bastard: A Narrative Exploration of the Experience of Indignation within Organizations," David Sims, Organization Studies, vol. 26, no. 11, 2005, pp. 1625-40.
WHO ATTENDED THE CEREMONY: David Sims

Biden-Palin Debate

Sarah Palin was prepped within an inch of her life and it showed. While nothing can overcome the ignorance she exhibited in her carious television appearances during the past few weeks, she made no major mistakes. Since prior to the debate the bar for her performance was set so low she would have had to walk onstage backwards and naked to make what would have been considered a major error. The fact is Palin made no major error.

For his part, Biden was in a difficult position. He had to approach Palin carefully: attack but not be a brute, talk but not be a gas bag. He accomplished both of his objectives.

In ordinary circumstances this would have been a draw, but since Palin was expected to perform like a drooling idiot, and didn't, the final score was a minor victory for Palin.

More Fun in A Totalitarian State-Life in China

Like all totalitarian states, the Chinese government fears all information that it doesn't control. One of the greatest sources of information today is , of course the internet and the Chinese government does its best to monitor and control its citizens.

Here's a little item on China and fear.

If you're an authoritarian government that closely monitors your citizens' online communications, here's a tip from Ars Technica: tell your minions not to store the logs on publicly-accessible servers. This is exactly what China has done with information pulled from the TOM-Skype network, leading a handful of researchers to discover that China is logging text messages and analyze the country's behavior with regards to the online monitoring and censorship of citizens. In a joint report between ONI Asia and the Information Welfare Monitor, author Nart Villeneuve details evidence that China not only monitors and logs text chat, but also targets specific users for further monitoring.
Related Stories

The report published yesterday, titled "BREACHING TRUST: An analysis of surveillance and security practices on China's TOM-Skype platform" (PDF), explains that full chat text messages from TOM-Skype users were found on insecure, publicly-accessible web servers along with the encryption key required to decrypt the data (TOM Online is Skype's operating partner in China). This—along with "millions of records containing personal information" such as IP address, usernames, and landline phone numbers—were stored along with additional data detailing Skype users outside of China who have communicated with TOM-Skype users in China.

"The captured messages contain specific keywords relating to sensitive political topics such as Taiwan independence, the Falun Gong, and political opposition to the Communist Party of China," reads the report. Villeneuve explains that the surveillance doesn't stop there, either. According to the groups' analysis, many of the captured messages contain content that falls outside of typically-censored words or topics, "suggesting that there may be criteria, such as specific usernames, that determine whether messages are captured by the system." Translation: If you're the type who regularly talks about unapproved topics on Skype, you may be flagged for further monitoring of everything you say.

Sarah Loves the Supremes!(They had Big Hits in the 60s, Right?)

She Gets All The News She Needs From the Weather Report

Problems With George?

And according to this in The Hill some don't like the Soros Solution:

Robert Shapiro, chairman of Sonecon, an economic advisory firm, who served as Commerce Department undersecretary during the Clinton administration, raised questions about Soros’s proposal.

He said that if the government bought stock in troubled firms, a problem would arise regarding how Uncle Sam would be represented as a shareholder.

“How does the government vote the shares?” he asked. “It puts them in a potential conflict of interest. Regulatory interests may hurt the bottom line.”

Why Dems Balked

Democrat Congressman Brad Sherman of California had his reasons for voting "no" on teh bailout, and he circulated this influential memo to fellow Dems:

TAXPAYERS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO RECOUP ANY OF THE COSTS -- Brad Sherman 9/29/08

We know that the Bailout Bill allows million-dollar-a-month salaries to executives of bailed-out firms, and it allows hundreds of billions to be used to buy toxic assets currently held by foreign investors. But we are told: "don't worry, this $700 billion bill won't cost us anything. We will get it all back next decade through a revenue bill."

I. Section 134 of the Bailout Bill merely says that the President must submit a revenue bill to Congress in 2013 that recoups from the financial industry the taxpayers' net losses.

a. If the President has any revenue ideas he actually likes, he would submit them to us anyway.
b. If the President submits revenue ideas only because he is forced to by Section 134, he will send it to us with a note saying that he believes they are bad for the country, and reserves the right to veto.
c. The Bailout Bill does not automatically enact any revenue increases, nor protect a revenue bill from filibuster or veto.

II. Congress is unlikely to pass a tax increase bill of hundreds of billions of dollars in 2013.

a. Tax increase bills are anathema to many.
b. 41 Senators can block the plan. We're giving Wall Street enough money to hire 4100 lobbyists.
c. In recent years, Wall Street has easily defeated every attempt to close every loophole that they exploit, no matter how pernicious-even the abusive use of Cayman Island tax havens by hedge fund managers, who thereby pay zero tax.

III. Any tax on the financial industry would make the good banks pay a huge tax so we can recoup what we gave to the bad banks.

a. Section 134 says the tax will be on "the financial industry." It does not provide for a tax on just those firms that received bailout payments.
b. A bank that doesn't get a bailout payment still pays the tax.
c. Community banks and perhaps credit unions will also be subject to the tax, so we can recoup what we gave to Wall Street.

IV. It is impossible to draft a tax that hits only those firms that received bailout payments, and even more impossible to draft one that taxes each bank in proportion to how much money we lost on its toxic assets.

a. There are no provisions to even keep track of losses on each asset purchased as it is managed over the years. Assets purchased from several
banks will be pooled, managed, and sold together, and we can never know how much we lost on assets purchased from any one bank.
b. If three banks in the year 2013 have the same income and size and operations, they will all pay the same tax-even if one got no bailout payments, a second got a million dollars, and a third got a billion dollars.
c. Many bailed-out firms won't exist in 2013.

1. Some will go under.
2. Some bailed-out firms are only shell companies. Example: Assume the Bank of Shanghai has $30 billion in toxic assets. It will sell these to the tiny subsidiary it has incorporated in California. The subsidiary will then sell these to the Treasury in 2009, and will be dissolved long before 2013.
3. Many bailed-out firms will still be unprofitable in 2013.
4. Some bailed-out firms will move offshore before 2013.

d. The whole purpose of the bill is to improve the balance sheets of the bailed-out firms. If particular bailed-out firms owe us the money they receive, they would have to list this as a liability, and the bill would fail to improve their balance sheets.

In 2013 we will not pass a tax bill that imposes hundreds of billions of dollars of taxes on the financial services industry, including those banks that got no bailouts, community banks, and credit unions. A tax bill imposed only on those entities that got bailout payments is impossible to draft, and contrary to the purposes of the Bill.

If it were easy to pass a bill to recoup hundreds of billions of dollars through taxes to be imposed in 2013 and thereafter, then provisions imposing such taxes would be in today's bill.

Wall Street gets their money now, and we get it back never.

When George Soros Talks-- Everybody-Especially Dems-Listen

George Soros is not a big fan of the Hank Paulson bailout plan, even as tweaked by both the Democrats and the Republicans.

Take a look st this Financial Times op-ed piece. (Register free of charge at the FT website)

Soros states:

Instead of just purchasing troubled assets the bulk of the funds ought to be used to recapitalise the banking system. Funds injected at the equity level are more high-powered than funds used at the balance sheet level by a minimal factor of twelve - effectively giving the government $8,400bn to re-ignite the flow of credit. In practice, the effect would be even greater because the injection of government funds would also attract private capital. The result would be more economic recovery and the chance for taxpayers to profit from the recovery.

This is how it would work. The Treasury secretary would rely on bank examiners rather than delegate implementation of Tarp to Wall Street firms. The bank examiners would establish how much additional equity capital each bank needs in order to be properly capitalised according to existing capital requirements. If managements could not raise equity from the private sector they could turn to Tarp.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Here is the entire article.


Recapitalise the banking system

By George Soros

Published: October 1 2008 02:05 | Last updated: October 1 2008 02:05

The emergency legislation currently before Congress was ill-conceived – or more accurately, not conceived at all. As Congress tried to improve what Treasury originally requested, an amalgam plan has emerged that consists of Treasury’s original Troubled Asset Relief Programme (Tarp) and a quite different capital infusion programme in which the government invests and stabilises weakened banks and profits from the economy’s eventual improvement. The capital infusion approach will cost tax payers less in future years, and may even make money for them.

Two weeks ago the Treasury did not have a plan ready – that is why it had to ask for total discretion in spending the money. But the general idea was to bring relief to the banking system by relieving banks of their toxic securities and parking them in a government-owned fund so that they would not be dumped on the market at distressed prices. With the value of their investments stabilised, banks would then be able to raise equity capital.

The idea was fraught with difficulties. The toxic securities in question are not homogenous and in any auction process the sellers are liable to dump the dregs on to the government fund. Moreover, the scheme addresses only one half of the underlying problem – the lack of credit availability. It does very little to enable house owners to meet their mortgage obligations and it does not address the foreclosure problem. With house prices not yet at the bottom, if the government bids up the price of mortgage backed securities, the taxpayers are liable to loose; but if the government does not pay up, the banking system does not experience much relief and cannot attract equity capital from the private sector.

A scheme so heavily favouring Wall Street over Main Street was politically unacceptable. It was tweaked by the Democrats, who hold the upper hand, so that it penalises the financial institutions that seek to take advantage of it. The Republicans did not want to be left behind and imposed a requirement that the tendered securities should be insured against loss at the expense of the tendering institution. The rescue package as it is now constituted is an amalgam of multiple approaches. There is now a real danger that the asset purchase programme will not be fully utilised because of the onerous conditions attached to it.

Different focus

‘Tarp’s adverse consequences could be mitigated by using taxpayers’ funds more effectively. If Tarp invested in preference shares with warrants attached, private investors, including me, would jump at the opportunity’

Nevertheless, a rescue package was desperately needed and, in spite of its shortcomings, it would change the course of events. As late as last Monday, September 22, Treasury secretary Hank Paulson hoped to avoid using taxpayers’ money; that is why he allowed Lehman Brothers to fail. Tarp establishes the principle that public funds are needed and if the present programme does not work, other programmes will be instituted. We will have crossed the Rubicon.

Since Tarp was ill-conceived, it is liable to arouse a negative response from America’s creditors. They would see it as an attempt to inflate away the debt. The dollar is liable to come under renewed pressure and the government will have to pay more for its debt, especially at the long end. These adverse consequences could be mitigated by using taxpayers’ funds more effectively.

Instead of just purchasing troubled assets the bulk of the funds ought to be used to recapitalise the banking system. Funds injected at the equity level are more high-powered than funds used at the balance sheet level by a minimal factor of twelve - effectively giving the government $8,400bn to re-ignite the flow of credit. In practice, the effect would be even greater because the injection of government funds would also attract private capital. The result would be more economic recovery and the chance for taxpayers to profit from the recovery.

This is how it would work. The Treasury secretary would rely on bank examiners rather than delegate implementation of Tarp to Wall Street firms. The bank examiners would establish how much additional equity capital each bank needs in order to be properly capitalised according to existing capital requirements. If managements could not raise equity from the private sector they could turn to Tarp.

Tarp would invest in preference shares with warrants attached. The preference shares would carry a low coupon (say 5 per cent) so that banks would find it profitable to continue lending, but shareholders would pay a heavy price because they would be diluted by the warrants; they would be given the right, however, to subscribe on Tarp’s terms. The rights would be tradeable and the secretary of the Treasury would be instructed to set the terms so that the rights would have a positive value.

Private investors, including me, are likely to jump at the opportunity. The recapitalised banks would be allowed to increase their leverage, so they would resume lending. Limits on bank leverage could be imposed later, after the economy has recovered. If the funds were used in this way, the recapitalisation of the banking system could be achieved with less than $500bn of public funds.

A revised emergency legislation could also provide more help to homeowners. It could require the Treasury to provide cheap financing for mortgage securities whose terms have been renegotiated, based on the Treasury’s cost of borrowing. Mortgage service companies could be prohibited from charging fees on foreclosures, but they could expect the owners of the securities to provide incentives for renegotiation as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are already doing.

Banks deemed to be insolvent would not be eligible for recapitalization by the capital infusion programme, but would be taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The FDIC would be recapitalised by $200bn as a temporary measure. FDIC, in turn could remove the $100,000 limit on insured deposits. A revision of the emergency legislation along these lines would be more equitable, have a better chance of success, and cost taxpayers less in the long run.

The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

$700 Billion And They Put You On The Day Shift

In all the talk about the proposed $700 Billion bailout of the finance industry, precious few words have been used to justify that amount of money. This quote from Forbes is more scary than any "Friday the 13th" movie:

"It's not based on any particular data point," a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. "We just wanted to choose a really large number."

In other words, the pulled the $700 Billion dollar figure out of their collective nether region.

You would have to be insane to construct a crisis management plan that was based entirely on a made-up number. Or you would have to consider the source. Allow me to engage in some political paranoia.

The hallmark of conservative political theory is that government is far too big and it needs to be pared down. One of the favorite tactics of conservatives is to stop funding programs they consider unnecessary. This prevents the conservatives from actually having to stand up to cut a program, instead they simply starve it to death. They call this tactic "Starve the Beast".

Now consider what might be going on in Karl Rove's mind. He knows that the polls are looking grim for McCain and the chance of a Republican being elected President in November are very slim. Rove knows that Democrats now control the House and Senate and that the Dems might achieve a veto proof Senate in November. There is no better way to prevent the Democrats from enacting their programs than to saddle them with a huge debt that will be cripple them for the next decade as the country struggles to pay off its collective mortgage.

Grover Norquist laughs. The people cry.

McCain Lies-- Oops, So Does Obama

Well, debate Number 1 is out of the way, so let's see what FactCheck.org has to say about the accuracy of the candidates' statements:

* Obama said McCain adviser Henry Kissinger backs talks with Iran “without preconditions,” but McCain disputed that. In fact, Kissinger did recently call for “high level” talks with Iran starting at the secretary of state level and said, “I do not believe that we can make conditions.” After the debate the McCain campaign issued a statement quoting Kissinger as saying he didn’t favor presidential talks with Iran.

* Obama denied voting for a bill that called for increased taxes on “people” making as little as $42,000 a year, as McCain accused him of doing. McCain was right, though only for single taxpayers. A married couple would have had to make $83,000 to be affected by the vote, and anyway no such increase is in Obama’s tax plan.

* McCain and Obama contradicted each other on what Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen said about troop withdrawals. Mullen said a time line for withdrawal could be “very dangerous” but was not talking specifically about “Obama’s plan,” as McCain maintained.

* McCain tripped up on one of his signature issues – special appropriation “earmarks.” He said they had “tripled in the last five years,” when in fact they have decreased sharply.

* Obama claimed Iraq “has” a $79 billion surplus. It once was projected to be as high as that. It’s now down to less than $60 billion.

* McCain repeated his overstated claim that the U.S. pays $700 billion a year for oil to hostile nations. Imports are running at about $536 billion this year, and a third of it comes from Canada, Mexico and the U.K.

* Obama said 95 percent of “the American people” would see a tax cut under his proposal. The actual figure is 81 percent of households.

* Obama mischaracterized an aspect of McCain’s health care plan, saying “employers” would be taxed on the value of health benefits provided to workers. Employers wouldn’t, but the workers would. McCain also would grant workers up to a $5,000 tax credit per family to cover health insurance.

* McCain misrepresented Obama's plan by claiming he'd be "handing the health care system over to the federal government." Obama would expand some government programs but would allow people to keep their current plans or chose from private ones, as well.

* McCain claimed Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower had drafted a letter of resignation from the Army to be sent in case the 1944 D-Day landing at Normandy turned out to be a failure. Ike prepared a letter taking responsibility, but he didn’t mention resigning.

Of course, all of the pundits were giving their take on the "debate", that Obama won or McCain won. But the pundits are doing what they do best, which is blowing smoke. First, the debate has to be seen for what it is- political theatre- and to see who can control the medium of television better. It all goes back to the famous Kennedy-Nixon debate of 1960. Nixon was ill with flu and he repeatedly wiped away visible sweat with his handkerchief while Kennedy appeared cool and collected. People who listened to the debate on radio thought Nixon won with his easy familiarity with facts. People who watched the debate on TV thoughts Kennedy won because he looked good.

In this debate, people were eager to see how the 70 year old McCain looked and acted when on the same stage as the 47 year old Obama. Would McCain appear to be on the edge of decrepitude compared to the cool, hip Obama? What were the prevailing images?

To this viewer, McCain more than held his own in the appearance department and he showed he could be a vigorous and engaged commander in chief. Obama, too presented an image of competence, although possibly a quart low in experience. What these two contenders presented, though were markedly different world views, with McCain more in line with a Kissinger-esque realpolitik, while Obama expressed more of an idealist-internationalist position.

The pundits adding up of forensic points and declaring who won or lost, who committed a gaffe or who had the better line is totally worthless. The debate served a valuable function in its capacity to display the real and important differences in the candidates world views, as well as a demonstration of their control over their own images and the power of TV. The real winners of the debate were the viewers.

Like Lipstick on a Pig- Oh, What the Hell, How about a Full Makeover?

Click on this little item to see what some hockey moms think of Sarah Palin. Hint: it ain't pretty!

Obama's Issue

Just as the Russian invasion of Georgia was an issue that highlighted John McCain's perceived strength's, an issue has developed that falls into Obama's lap: the economy.

A CBS/NYTIMES poll, here, states:

(CBS) Nearly half of registered voters say "the economy and jobs" is the most important issue in their decision about whom to support for president, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds.

Forty-eight percent of these voters cited "the economy and jobs," an increase of eight points from one month ago. That's more than 30 percentage points higher than the second most cited issue, "terrorism and national security," cited by 14 percent of registered voters. Another ten percent pointed to "gas prices and energy," while an equal number pointed to health care. Just 8 percent of registered voters cited the war in Iraq.

The poll was conducted between September 12th and 16th, a period of days that was witness to the collapse of Lehman Brothers - the largest bankruptcy in the history of the country - followed by the largest one-day stock market plunge in seven years.

Americans have a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than they did a month ago, but they remain extremely pessimistic. Only 22 percent of Americans say the condition of the national economy is even somewhat good, and six in 10 think the economy is getting worse, not better. About a third of all Americans say they are worse off now than four years ago, and one in five say they are falling behind financially.

Barack Obama rates slightly higher than John McCain in voter confidence in handling the economy, though most voters are at least somewhat confident in both candidates. Sixty percent of voters are very or somewhat confident in Obama's ability to handle the economy, while 53 percent say the same of McCain. Forty-six percent say they are not too confident or not at all confident in McCain, while 39 percent have that opinion of Obama.

Thirty-nine percent of Americans describe the state of the economy as "very bad," down two points from August. Sixty-one percent say it is getting worse, up three points from two months ago.(emphasis TRM)

Of course no one knows the events that will unfurl during the next 48 days before the election, but each side has claimed an area of expertise. Come November 4th , will the prevailing issue be the economy and jobs, or national security? Answer that question and you will be able to predict this year's winner.

McCain's Mistake?

John McCain has disarmed himself. The Arizona republican has always claimed that experience was a critical factor in choosing the next president, and by gum, he was the guy with experience. However, by picking a VP who has less political experience than a New York City co-op president, he has taken away his own most potent weapon.

As CQ politics puts it here:

However, when McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate -- a person just two years removed from being mayor of a town with fewer people than the Fenway Park bleachers -- he essentially gave up experience as a campaign issue. It's hard to argue that Obama is inexperienced when McCain's choice to be just a heartbeat away from the presidency has even less experience.

Further, it looks as though mean-girl Sarah Palin has been discovered by the electorate:

Gov. Sarah Palin's favorable/unfavorable ratings have suffered a stunning 21 point collapse in just one week, according to Research 2000 polling. Last week, 52% approved and 35% disapproved of the GOP vice presidential nominee (+17 net). This week, 42% approved and 46% disapprove (-4 net).

Earlier this week, Newsweek also saw the drop in other polling. "Over the course of a single weekend... Palin went from being the most popular White House hopeful to the least."

And if you look at the Vote-master's tally, the country now looks like the lower limit of the Obama victory I feel is a distinct possibility in November. Obama must win Colorado and either New Mexico or Nevada in order to win the election.

Alex Says..

I agree.

This week has been full of those days of roaring optimism about the election. Nearly every day, as I've watched the GOP dirigible float towards Lakehurst, it's seemed as if there's no way the Dems can fumble the gift that's been handed to them in the person of a 72-year old hypocrite who's sold his soul to win the election.

I also have the days of crushing pessimism, as I realize that the voters who are going to decide this election think "Maverick" and only "Maverick" about McCain and...something that's unprintable about Obama. These fools are going to decide the fate of the election, and it doesn't matter how much info about McCain's ridiculousness comes out.

No one is listening.

John McCain - Thief

It has reached a point where John McCain is making a mockery of himself. Have you noticed how staunch Republican McCain steals Democratic/Liberal language and uses it against them? For example, saying the Democrats were sexist for their attack on McCain's VP pick, the incomparable Sarah Palin, had me rolling on the floor with hysterics.

Now Mr. Republican is trying to figure out the worst economic disaster since the great depression, and he finally comes to the conclusion that government bail-outs are a good thing. Last week he was saying he was for small government, this week he has another position.


Just listen to McCain and hear how low he has sunk. Shame!

This Government Reads Your Mind and Finds You Guilty

In a chilling combination reminicent of "Brave New World" and "1984", a local government in India, which likes to bill itself as the world's largest democracy, has taken steps that any totalitarian government would love.

Buried inside the New York Times of September 14th, was this item:

India has become the first country to convict someone of a crime relying on evidence from this controversial machine: a brain scanner that produces images of the human mind in action and is said to reveal signs that a suspect remembers details of the crime in question.

...

But it was only in June, in a murder case in Pune, in Maharashtra State, that a judge explicitly cited a scan as proof that the suspect’s brain held “experiential knowledge” about the crime that only the killer could possess, sentencing her to life in prison.

Certainly, technology marches on, especially in the field of criminal justice and that system first admitted the use of fingerprints and then DNA evidence. But some technologies have not been proven as reliable, such as the so-called "lie detector" which measures stress rather than truth.

This Indian government's reliance on brain waves poses an interesting question: will that government move on to using brain waves to monitor someone who is contemplating a crime?

It seems that the NSA's reading of e-mail messages is but small potatoes compared to a government picking up your brain waves.

I wonder if they will develop this technology to the degree that brain waves will be read without the need to actually hook up someone to a machine?

Targets USA

The November election will come down to traditional battleground states: Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania; and some new battlegrounds: Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

In 2004, Bush barely won Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, but with the a significant change in population demographics, Obama might be able to win some of those south west states. But the Democrat will also have to spend precious time and money in holding actions in Pennsylvania and Michigan, two blue collar states that preferred Hillary Clinton and which were barely won by John Kerry in '04.

Go to 270towin.com to game how you think the election will play out. I see Obama with a good chance of winning New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Michigan with Nevada very close and Colorado, a center for both right wing evangelical activity and increased Democratic activity, as the big battleground.

If Obama is to win, I see him needing the new keystone of Colorado and either New Mexico or Nevada. And that's why the Democrats held their convention in Denver.

Pride Goeth Before the Fall Elections

Just a few weeks ago, Barack Obama was leading in all the state polls and he had an estimated 300 electoral votes, according to some sources. Today, if you check the Votemaster, McCain leads with just 270 votes, but that is enough to be elected President of the United States.

If you are a regular reader of this blog you know that I never believed that Obama's large lead was valid and that I predicted the race would be close, with a possible Obama victory with between 272 and 278 EVs.

In an excellent assessment earlier this week,here, Howard Fineman quoted one Democratic heavy-hitter on Obama's problems:

...if I were an Obama partisan I would be worried that his mistakes have a common thread - pride.

Obama seems to want to do things on his own, and on his own terms. It’s understandable. Obama has his own crowd – from Chicago, from Harvard, and from a new cadre of wealthy, Ivy-educated movers and shakers.

“He’s an arrogant S.O.B.,” one of the latter told me today. “He wants to do it his way, and his way alone.” But politics doesn’t work that way. And has Obama should know, or is about to find out, that everyone needs a little help.

According to Fineman, Obama has committed six major errors:

Declining to take federal financing for the general election

Declining McCain’s offer to hold ten town hall debates

Failing to go all the way with the Clintons

The 22-state strategy

Failing to state a sweeping, but concrete, policy idea

Remaining trapped in professor-observer speak

Failing to attack McCain early

It's not too late for Obama to make some significant changes in his approach, but that would require both a degree of flexibility and an intense and manifest hunger for the presidency and I have not observed either of these qualities in the candidate. On the other hand, McCain is demonstrating a typical Republican approach: Stop at nothing to achieve the biggest prize in the world.

To some extent, the world is playing into McCain's hand. Russia's move into Georgia has stoked those old Cold War fears and I perceive a lack of confidence in the electorate that Obama is up to the task of confronting KGBer Vladimir Putin or Iran's Mahmoud Ahmdinajad and that country's desire for nuclear weapons. Despite the economy, global warming, health care, education, and all of the other domestic issues that the democrats should, and do, own, none of these can be tackled unless the people feel safe. The belief is that the strong McCain is more capable of dealing with safety, and national security issues, and that he should answer that 3a.m. phone call.

A week is an eternity in politics and, that being said, we have about seven eternities before the election. But, along with burning autumnal leaves, I'm starting to smell a McCain victory.

Remember

The lights shine.

World Trade Center Murders

Once again I look out my window to see the lights of the World Trade Center memorial lights probe the sky, pale reminders of the mass murder that took place on that site seven years ago.

Seven years ago, on that brilliant Tuesday morning, I emerged from the Brooklyn Bridge subway station adjacent to City Hall to see that obscene diagonal gash on the north face of the North tower. I was mesmerized. I had to watch these landmarks, these behemoths of the skyline as they ejected smoke, fire, papers and people. Firefighters and other emergency service people and their vehicles flooded the area. I looked at that north tower, and knowing how the building was constructed, I felt there was a real possibility that the building might collapse,and I felt that the last thing that was needed was another pedestrian clogging the street, so I continued to my office, from where I watched the end of an era.

I have worked in the downtown area for more than thirty years and the towers were a constant presence. many times I went to the concourse to visit the Borders bookstore that was there, or to do some banking. Earlier that year I had visited the headquarters of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey to interview for a job. I also interviewed for a job at 7 World Trade Center, with the Mayor's Office of Emergency Management. As you can tell, my attachment to those buildings was not abstract, but quite concrete. I could have been inside one of those buildings when those airplanes hit. By the grace of god, I wasn't.

Then, with two tremendous roars, the world turned dark. We evacuated the area in a scene that reminded me of those apocalyptic movies that show long lines of refugees. But pain was absent. Color was absent. Everything was absent as a huge hole expanded to include millions of people.

When I returned to work a week later, I bought two miniature New York City flags and dipped them both into the omnipresent grey dust that constituted much of the remains of the towers and which coated the downtown area. I kept one flag and later presented it to the Midwest City, Oklahoma Rotary Club as a sign of the sad bond that New York had with Oklahoma as victims of mass terrorist murder. I sent the other flag to a friend who was an Apache helicopter pilot who was about to be deployed to Afghanistan. He wrote and told me that he placed the flag in his knee board so that he would never forget why he was going into battle.

Seven years later we still mourn. For some, mourning is a quiet and private affair. For some, sadly, mourning has become their profession.

The World Trade Center now looks like any another major government construction site, architecturally banal, delayed and over budget. Is this normality?

A Fine Democratic Whine

Democrats are at it again, whining that the Republicans aren't playing fair and spreading lies about them through a compliant media.

This reminds of of the story that took place years ago at the Paris peace talks to end the the Vietnam war. It is said that an American general met with his North Vietnamese counterpart. "You know," said the American, "You never beat us on the battlefield." The North Vietnamese looked at the American and replied, "You are quite right. But what you say is also totally irrelevant."

The democrats are quite right that the republicans are playing dirty.Yes, the Republicans are lying about Barack Obama and his "pig in lipstick" statement, as well as other positions that the Democrat has taken in the pastas well as positions taken by Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin.

And it is all quite irrelevant.

The Republicans are engaging in classic Lee Atwater/Karl Rove smear politics. The Democrats are defending themselves by releasing position papers. I have written many times that the electorate likes to get the "warm fuzzies" about a candidate. But in this dangerous world, the electorate also wants to know that their candidate will also prevail in a knife fight in a dark ally, and here is where the Democrats, specifically Obama, fail. Oh, he looks cool, and he talks great, but on a gut level what do you think he would do in an alley fight? Do you think he will serve legal papers on his opponent or do you think he will kick his foe in the balls and gouge his eyes out?

Obama has to stop reacting to the 24 hour news cycle agenda, which is currently being set by McCain, as he forces Obama to react to his charges, however outrageous they might be.

Obama is known for his love of sports, especially basketball. I would love to tell him that the sport here is boxing. Not Olympic style boxing which is won on style points, but American boxing which demands a knock out. Obama has to demonstrate that he has the the ability and desire to bite off a nose or rip off an ear for the sake of gaining the presidency. Otherwise, no one will feel confident enough to have him face heavyweight KGBer Vladimir Putin in the ring that is world politics.

Oil Prices

Oil is now $103 per barrel. Am I the only person who wonders why prices are not coming down with same the speed with which they went up?

Political Brain Farts

Politico.com has this fun roundup of stupid politician tricks here.

We still have 50-odd days or so until the political Superbowl, and I anticipate that this listing will be updated with some real whoppers. If you want some real meat, though, go to the Annenberg Fact Check web site, listed on the right side column.

McCain Moves Ahead

For the first time int his election season , John MCain has taken a lead in a national poll:

(Sept. 7) - John McCain has overtaken Barack Obama in the Gallup daily tracking poll and has his highest level of support in that poll since early May.
McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, by Gallup’s measure. McCain has so far earned the same convention bounce as Obama, though at a more rapid pace.

...


Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll also reported today that when "leaners” are included, Obama and McCain are now tied at 48 percent. That means that, by Rasmussen’s measure, Obama’s 6-point bounce has been erased. CBS News polling had shown the same outcome midway through the GOP convention.
McCain’s resurgence in the polls comes as Nielsen Media Research reported that the Republican convention earned more television viewers than the Democratic convention. Republicans earned an average audience of 34.5 million, while Democrats earned an average viewership of 30.2 million.

Obama's bounce from the Democratic convention has now been met and exceeded by Senator McCain's increases. Remember, these are national polls and the ones we need to watch are the state polls. I'll keep you posted or check with the Votemaster.

At this point, the political conventions are over and the poll bounce that inevitably occurs for each candidate is all but over and is absorbed into overall poll results. Look for future poll results to flatten out.

Look for the professional pols to try to figure out why McCain is still hanging in and why Obama hasn't gained a sizable lead. How long will it take for some to admit that they might have misread the mood of the electorate and the desire for "change", however nebulously that might be described.

Look for the media to totally ignore the major issue of how they might have manipulated coverage of both the Republican and Democratic campaigns so that their darlings gained their respective party's nominations.

Look for everyone to ignore the real and difficult issues that face this country as the candidates reduce their messages to 60 second television commercials contaning pretty pictures, waving flags, and smiling faces.

Electioneering at its Best-Jib Jab

JibJab says it all right here!


Excellent!

Palin's Northern Exposure

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may be talking about cleaning up corruption in Alaska, but the truth seems to be quite the opposite as she currently is under investigation.



As the Anchorage Daily News reports:

The allegations are that she, her family or administration improperly pressured then-Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan to fire Gov. Palin's ex-brother-in-law, state trooper Mike Wooten, who had been in the middle of a custody dispute with Palin's sister.

In July, when legislators started talking about conducting an investigation, Palin denied any wrongdoing and said she welcomed an investigation.

"Hold me accountable," she said.

The Legislature took her up on that offer. But this week, she basically told the Legislature, "Never mind."

Palin, at this point, seems to be playing the Emily Letella role to perfection, ignoring what Alaskans are calling "Troopergate", but the news is sure to obtain maximum exposure in the Lower 48 thanks to the Democratic party and its adherents. Palin is starting to take on a remarkable resemblance
to former Democratic VP candidate Geraldine Ferraro, who was inadequately vetted by presidential candidate Walter Mondale's team, and who proved to be a major embarrassment to Mondale's campaign.