I previously reported on poll results,especially the latest ones that showed a statistical tie in either an Obama-McCain contest or a Clinton-McCain battle. Those polls always showed population preferences.
Leave it to the Votemaster to take all the data and wring out the most interesting insights.
In today's (3/24)posting, he looks at the individual state results in the possible presidential match-ups to see who might win the most electoral, rather than popular, votes, and he comes to an intriguing conclusion.
In an Obama-McCain election, the winner is McCain! And by a comfortable margin, with the vote at 292-231.
On the other hand, a Clinton versus McCain match-up has the Democrat winning 268-246.
So how do we resolve the difference between the popular vote polls which show statistical ties, with this analysis of the electoral vote based on individual state polls? We don't! It's still far too early to draw any conclusions about the mood and focus of the electorate. Frankly, I was quite surprised by the voter polls that showed McCain in a statistical tie with either Democratic candidate. When you consider the war, the economy and the general disapproval, if not disgust, for the Republican president George Bush, for McCain to show as much strength as he has must be rather cheery news for him and his team.
Remember,in politics a week is an eternity, and things will change.
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This should be the most important argument Clinton can present to superdelegates. She has won primary states that can yield more electoral votes come November.
Also, part of McCain's appeal is his honesty and willingness to, well, be trusted. On the war, McCain's gotten it right. You can't hold him any more accountable for the start of the war than Hillary Clinton: both voted for it, and both voted for the bills that upheld the war. The only difference is that McCain stuck to his votes, and even differed with the President when he thought it necessary. Recently, thinks have turned around in Iraq, largely due to the troop surge which McCain was calling for long before anyone else.
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