Poll Watching

SurveyUSA has Obama leading Hillary 49% to 41% in North Carolina. Im a little surprised that the margin is only 8% (n=713 likely voters, moe=3.7%). As SUSA reports

In a Democratic Primary in North Carolina today, 03/11/08, eight weeks to the vote, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, before Obama won Virginia, Maryland, and Wisconsin, and before Clinton won Texas and Ohio, the contest in NC is largely unchanged. Then, Obama led by 10, now by 8. In Charlotte, Obama led by 2 points a month ago, by 7 points today. In Southern and Eastern NC, Obama led by 4 points a month ago, by 8 points today. Only in Raleigh and Greensboro did Clinton slice into Obama, trimming his lead from 16 points a month ago to 8 points today. Among women, Obama and Clinton are effectively even, as they were last month. Among men, Obama leads by 13. Clinton leads 5:3 among whites. Obama leads 5:1 among blacks. Obama leads among voters under age 50. The two are tied among voters age 50+.

Pennsylvania shows Hillary ahead 55% to Obama's 36% (n=608 likely voters, moe=4%). The problem with those numbers is that Hillary's support seems to erode the closer voters get to the actual vote. And since the Dems allocate their delegates proportionally, Hillary has to score big in order to eke out any advantage. All Obama has to do is hold his own and the delegate lead he has will be insurmountable.

In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 03/11/08, six weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 55% to 36%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. Obama and Clinton are effectively tied in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia, but Clinton leads everywhere else. She is up 2:1 in SW PA, which includes Pittsburgh; is up 5:4 in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg; is up 4:1 in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown; is up 5:3 in NE PA, which includes Wilkes-Barre; and is up 4:1 in NW PA, which includes Erie. Clinton leads 2:1 among whites; Obama leads 3:1 among blacks. Clinton leads by 5 among men, by 30 among women. She leads by 12 among those under age 50, leads by 26 among those age 50+. On the Economy, which is most important to Democratic voters in PA, Clinton leads by 24 points. On Health Care, next most important, Clinton leads by 32 points. Among voters focused on Iraq, the two are effectively tied.

Newsweek's Howard Fineman gets some local Penn color (coaldust?), here.