Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Russian War Motives- Oil or Ethnic Politics?

Is the motive for Russia's Georgia invasion political or is it oil? Witht eh Eurasian rim a noted source for oil, don't discount the Georgia move as the first Russian action on its side of the Oil Wars of the 21st Century.

Take a look at this prescient 2006 article in Asia Times:

The United States' global energy-control strategy, it's now clear to most, was the actual reason for the highly costly regime change in Iraq, euphemistically dubbed "democracy" by Washington. But while it is preoccupied with implanting democracy in the Middle East, the United States is quietly being outflanked in the rush to secure and control major energy sources of the Persian Gulf, the Central Asian Caspian Basin, Africa and beyond.

The quest for energy control has informed Washington's support for high-risk "color revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan in recent months.

[...]

Some in Washington are beginning to realize that important figures might have been too clumsy in recent public statements about both China and Russia, two nations whose cooperation in some form is essential to the success of the global US energy project.

[,,,]

If the trend of recent events continues, it won't be US-style democracy that is spreading, but rather Russian and Chinese influence over major oil and gas supplies.

Some in Washington are beginning to realize that important figures might have been too clumsy in recent public statements about both China and Russia, two nations whose cooperation in some form is essential to the success of the global US energy project.
[...]

Next Thursday, member nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by China and Russia, will reportedly invite Iran, currently an observer, into full membership. Even if full membership is postponed, as has been mooted, the fact remains that Russia and China both want to seal closer cooperation with Iran in Eurasian energy cooperation.

The SCO was founded in June 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its stated goal was to facilitate "cooperation in political affairs, economy and trade, scientific-technical, cultural, and educational spheres as well as in energy, transportation, tourism, and environment protection fields". Recently, however, the SCO is beginning to look like an energy-financial bloc in Central Asia consciously being developed to serve as a counter-pole to US hegemony.


Here is an interesting articla from the April 2007 edition of Oil and Gas, a trade magazine, on the strategic importance of Eurasia:

Since pipeline capacity will be unable to transport the desired quantity of Turkmen gas in 2010, a new pipeline should be constructed. One possibility is a pipeline along the Caspian seashore through Kazakhstan and Russia to Ukraine. The pipeline's length will be 3,000 km and cost an estimated $3 bln. Due to likely delays casued by tensions between competing interests construction of the pipeline would probably not be completed until after 2010.

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