Bomb, Bomb, Bomb,Bomb, Bomb, Iran

If the United States and/or Israel want to bomb the nuclear facilities of Iran, the deadline is closing in on a daily basis.

Among the items to consider are:

1.When Russia will complete the sale of air defense missiles to Iran.

2. The end of the Bush Presidency

3. The end of the Olmert Prime Ministry in Israel

4. Status of Israeli air and defense forces. While everyone is watching the Air Force, keep your eyes on Israel's submarine forces, which can strike undetected from closer range:

Some reports suggest that Israel has adapted Harpoon cruise missiles, which have a range of 130 kilometers, to carry an indigenously developed nuclear warhead and guidance system, though other experts argue that such modifications to a Harpoon missile are not feasible.[6] Others believe that Israel has developed an indigenous cruise missile with a range of 320 kilometers that is believed to be a version of Rafael Armament Development Authority’s Popeye turbo cruise missile.[7] Still others believe that the missile may be a version of the Gabriel 4LR that is produced by Israel Aircraft Industries. Once encapsulated, it could be launched in 533mm torpedo tubes similar to the Harpoon.[8] Such speculation was further fueled by an unconfirmed test of a nuclear-capable, submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) in the Indian Ocean in 2000. Some reports claimed targets 1,500 kilometers away were hit.[7,9] Such a range, however, implies an entirely new type of missile.[7,8,10] However, the Israeli Defense Forces denies any such missile tests.[7,11]

5. The phases of the moon, specifically, whether Israeli pilots would need a dark, moonless night, or a full moon to aid in target identification.

Check out this table for moon phases through the end of this year:

      NEW MOON    FIRST QUARTER        FULL MOON     LAST QUARTER

     d  h  m          d  h  m          d  h  m          d  h  m

AUG.   5  3 05   AUG.  13  2 38   AUG.  19 17 53   AUG.  26 15 18
SEPT.  3 18 45   SEPT. 11 11 37   SEPT. 18  2 01   SEPT. 25  6 41
OCT.   3 10 28   OCT.  10 19 01   OCT.  17 12 14   OCT.  25  1 17
NOV.   2  1 24   NOV.   9  1 57   NOV.  16  0 57   NOV.  23 22 11
DEC.   1 15 01   DEC.   8  9 36   DEC.  15 16 15   DEC.  23 19 36
DEC.  31  3 12

If Israel attacks Iran before the election in November, they could have an unintended impact of serious consequences on the outcome. Therefore, IF Israel decides to attack, the most probable dates are ( +/- 2) Nov. 16, Dec. 1, Dec. 15, Dec, 31.

Let's hope that diplomacy works. In this analysis in today's NYTIMES MAGAZINE, Noah Feldman looks at all the the sabre rattling and the diplomatic talks and concludes:

So which script will play out, the threat of war or the dull hum of diplomats negotiating a modus vivendi that might someday be called peace? The answer lies in no small part with the Iranian government, itself a complex mix of ideologues and foreign-policy professionals under the not-always-watchful eye of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If Iran is in fact close to developing functioning nuclear weapons, then it probably will not compromise. As North Korea has shown, even a few weapons are enough to enhance a country’s status and bargaining power immensely. If, however, Iran’s leaders assess the difficulties of mastering centrifuge technology as a real barrier to gaining weapons, they might as well negotiate and try to get the best deal they can while the U.S. and Israel are worried about them.

Paradoxically, then, saber rattling against Iran may help achieve political resolution. It could turn out that the more it looks as if the coming months may bring war, the more likely it becomes that winter will instead bring meaningful progress toward peace.

However, if North Korea could master nuclear technology to the point where it could construct an explosive device, I have no doubt that those capabilities also are within Iran's reach.

The biggest questions are whether we are dealing with ideologues or pragmatists in Iran, whether Russia, which currently is flexing its military muscle in Georgia, sees it to be in its interest to defang Iran, and whether China would risk a reduction in its oil supply from Iran. If the ideologues are in control, if the Russians want instability, and if the Chinese must maintain their rate of industrialization, then war draws closer.