LOOKING FORWARD

The Democratic Party is about to take an historic step by nominating either a woman or a black man as it presidential candidate. The times they are a'changin'.. but watch out, cause they may not be a'changin' that much.

I have a very liberal friend who believes that this election will be a slam-dunk for the Democrats and, like most extremists of either party, he refuses to listen to any counter-argument.

I've taken a look at the possibilities and the strongest candidate the Republicans have is John McCain. Let's examine why.

The president is chosen by the Electoral College and not by popular vote. That being said, the Democratic candidate has to win significantly more votes in delegate rich states that went for George Bush in 2004, and Florida and Ohio are the prime targets. The Democratic candidate will have to pull at least all the votes that John Kerry did, and since I don't believe the Messiah has yet come, a certain number of those voters will not vote for either a woman or a black man, despite what they might tell pollsters. So I see a certain slippage there. Further, I don't believe that anyone stupid enough to vote for Bush in 2004 will suddenly become enlightened enough to vote for either Obama or Hillary.

Hillary is a polarizing figure. She will not show a net gain in the women's vote (if such a thing exists) because while some love her, an equal number despise her. Other people do not want to see a reprise of the emotional melodrama that was the first Clinton administration.

Obama will gain many voters for his historic position, but likewise he will lose some Kerry votes simply because he is black. And don't think the Republicans will let the electorate forget that his middle name is Hussein, thereby stirring up anti-Muslim fears.

On the other hand, if McCain becomes the Republican candidate, many possibilities open for him. It really is mind-boggling. The right hates McCain. The left hates McCain. That means that a lot of people who really matter in a general election, the centrists of both parties, have someone to vote for. Did you see where Ann Coulter says she will vote for HIllary rather than McCain because Hilllary is more conservative than McCain is? How about the article in yesterday's New York Times that indicated many right wingers were forcing themselves to re-examine their opposition to McCain because he will be the only one they might be able to vote for.

McCain will be a formidable candidate. He has many characteristics that appeal to a lot of voters: naval aviator, war hero, two term congressman, three term senator. He has credentials as an old line Republican but he also has a history of pragmatism. He worked with liberal Russ Feingold on campaign finance reform. He wanted a more liberal immigration policy. He believes that global warming must be combated. He is against torture of prisoners suspected of terrorism while he believes the war must be prosecuted fully. He is an old fashioned tax cutter.

Against this the Democrats will have a one-term senator whose main claim to fame is his race and his opposition to the Iraq war and the Hillary show.

Dems, you will have a battle on your hands.