The democratic candidates released their campaign contribution numbers today and the big surprise came from barrack Obama’s camp, which announced that the candidate had raised a record $32.5 million dollars for the second quarter. This is an astonishing figure in both an absolute sense and in because he beat the so-called front runner, Sen. Hillary Clinton, who raised $27 million dollars. Is Hillary fatigue starting to set in?
John Edwards had a poor showing at $9 million, while New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is staring to show surprising strength relative to the other second tier candidates, raising $7 million. Richardson may be in the process of breaking into so-called top tier of candidates, at least on a dollar basis.
One note on the national polls: FORGET THEM. The only national poll that really means anything happens on Election Day, and even then, it is less significant than many people think since their electoral college representatives actually cast the votes that matter.
The primary system is a series of hurdles that must be jumped one at a time. Therefore, it is more instructive to look at the individual state polls in the order of their primaries. The standings will change once the process starts in earnest (sort of like the baseball season) but let’s look at Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, in that order. (Results are aggregated by the Votemaster at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ . This is an incredibly valuable site for poll analysis)
In Iowa a Mason-Dixon poll conducted on June 16 shows Hillary and John Edwards in a statistical dead heat:
Clinton 22% Obama 18% Edwards 21%
Giuliani 15% McCain 6% Romney 25%
The polls recorded by the Votemaster since January show considerable strength for Edwards since the beginning of 2007. As MSNBC reported:
A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all in a dead heat in Iowa. But the actual leader in the survey is someone who isn't even running -- and isn't even a person: It's "undecided".
In the poll -- which was taken of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from June 13-16, and which has a margin of error of +/- 5% -- Clinton is at 22%, Edwards is at 21%, and Obama is at 18%. Richardson comes in fourth at 6%, and Biden gets 4%; no other Dem gets more than 2%. But a whopping 27% say they are undecided.
On the republican side, you can put a fork in McCain; he’s done! Unless of course Mitt Romney does something stupid, and we have never seen a politician do anything stupid, have we?
I still believe Giuliani’s numbers will evaporate once his total record comes under proper scrutiny. As I have said many times, he was mayor for eight years and a great mayor for eight weeks.
Obviously, the winner in Iowa will start to see more money flowing his or her way. But has Clinton tapped out her big money raisers? Has Obama tapped out the little guy?
Move from Iowa to the next state in the primary hurdles, New Hampshire. Clinton has shown consistent strength. In a Suffolk University poll of June 24th:
Clinton 37% Obama 19% Edwards 9%
Giuliani 22% McCain 13% Romney 26%
These numbers can become very fluid coming out of Iowa.
Finally, Lets look at June 15 South Carolina poll conducted by Mason-Dixon:
Clinton 25% Obama 34% Edwards 12%
Giuliani 21% McCain 7% Romney 11%
While Clinton has led, Obama has taken a strong lead in the last poll. On the Republican side, Giuliani shows strength.
What does this all mean? For the Democrats, Clinton has reasons to worry. Hillary Clinton will not be the shoo-in that she wants everyone to believe. Edwards leads her in Iowa, Obama leads her in South Carolina. Her support is not firm in important individual states. Her money raising machine may be running out of steam. Meanwhile, the unannounced Al Gore continues to upstage the others with great publicity and an op-ed article in the NY Times that tackles global warming. Is Gore running just by acting presidential?
On the Republican side Romney and Giuliani both show strength. But Fred Thompson might upset those apple carts once he announces.
So continue the snooze fest until the end of summer.
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1 comment:
Well perhaps you should have set your alarm clock for the debate a few days ago. While nothing earth shattering ocurred, there were some interesting moments. At least some topics not previously 'debated' in the primary season came up. (New Orleans recovery/Katrina, Sudan, trade agreements, health care, school integration/last week's Supreme Court decisions) My favorite 'handled' moment was when Clinton put forward a 'no-fly' zone concept for the Sudan and, if that didn't work, she would bomb. iIthought she hit a home run with that--tough woman who would do battle in Africa for human rights!
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