Iran Math

Here are some interesting story threads to ponder:

1.Nine US military ships enter Persian Gulf Wednesday, assembling off Iran’s coast in largest American naval move since 2003

May 23, 2007, 6:56 PM (GMT+02:00)

They sailed through the Strait of Hormuz by day - according to US Navy officials for training exercises. The vessels carry around 17,000 combat and marine personnel. They include the two aircraft carriers, USS Nimitz and USS Stennis, as well as the USS Bonhomme Richard LHD 6 Group, the world’s biggest amphibious strike force. Iran was not notified of the planned arrival.
DEBKAfile reports the maneuvers take place less than two weeks after Vice President Dick Cheney visited the region and informed Saudi King Abdullah and fellow Gulf rulers that President George W. Bush has determined that if Iran refuses to waive a nuclear weapon capability, the US will attack its nuclear, military and economic infrastructure before he leaves the White House in Jan. 2009.


2. (CNN) -- U.S. and Iranian officials will meet in Baghdad later this month to discuss issues involving Iraq, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Thursday.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told reporters that the date would be May 28. Both officials were speaking from Islamabad, Pakistan, where an Islamic conference of foreign ministers was being held.

According to Zebari, the discussions will be a part of three-party talks, involving the United States, Iran and Iraq.



3.The US House of Representatives last week allocated another $25 for the Arrow’s joint production and integration; and $45 m for the US-Israeli short-range David’s Sling, which is under development for countering high trajectory projectiles, such as Hizballah’s Katyusha rockets.

US and Israeli anti-missile systems are scheduled to be fully integrated by the year 2013. A further American investment of $1 bn in the Israeli programs will top up the $2.8 bn already spent.



Israel’s defense minister Amir Peretz said on May 19 that he hopes David’s Sling will be ready in two years. This leaves Israel unprotected against the Palestinian Qassam, Hizballah’s Katyusha or mortar attack before 2010.


4. Iran is estimated to be 3-8 years from possessing an atomic weapon, according to teh International Atomic Energy Agency, states the Houston Chronicle:

LUXEMBOURG — The head of the U.N. nuclear agency said Thursday he agreed with CIA estimates that Iran was three to eight years from being able to make nuclear weapons and he urged the U.S. and other powers to pursue talks with the Islamic country.

The best way to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear arms is "through a comprehensive dialogue," International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei told a news conference in Luxembourg. "One way to do that, rather than to continue the rhetoric, is to ... sit down together."

On Wednesday, the IAEA reported that Iran's uranium enrichment program was expanding in defiance of U.N. demands that it be suspended, findings that could lead to new sanctions against the country.

The report also warned that the IAEA's knowledge of those activities was shrinking.

"We are moving toward Iran building (nuclear) capacity and knowledge, without (the IAEA) in a position to verify the nature or scope of that program," ElBaradei said.

5. United Nations Security Council permanent members Russia and China have been most active in opposing world-wide sanctions against the Iranian government to halt nuclear development. See this March Washington Post report.


6. As Janes reported in 2005, Russia and China are driven more by their economic interests than by concerns for international security:

An Iran-Russia-China axis?

The decision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer Iran's nuclear programme to the UN Security Council has thrown into sharp focus relations between Iran and Russia. Moscow may soon have to choose whether to back Iran or align itself with the US and the European Union (EU) in reining in Iran's nuclear intentions.

Russia appears ready to co-operate with both the USA and Iran in order to boost its trade relations with the two countries. Although Russia is also a leading oil exporter and therefore unlikely to be intimidated by Iranian threats to reduce oil sales, the Russian nuclear industry is dependent on the completion of Iran's USD1 billion Bushehr project, which Moscow hopes will be followed by future billion-dollar contracts. Russia's defence industries, also badly in need of an economic boost through exports, have also been selling weapons systems and aircraft to Iran.

Meanwhile, China is becoming even more dependent on Iran for energy. A November 2004 deal to supply China with gas worth USD100 billion is likely rise to a total of USD200 billion after a similar oil agreement is finalised. Iran will export 10 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually for 25 years in return for Chinese investment in exploration and drilling. This energy co-operation is rendering the US administration's economic sanctions on Iran ineffective. However, the Russians must now assess the likelihood of being supplanted by China if they appear willing to trade favours with Washington and lose the confidence of Tehran. Iran may yet emerge as a leading member of a post-Cold War alliance which will work to undermine US regional objectives.

And take a look at this 2005 item from Asia Times:

China lays down gauntlet in energy war
By F William Engdahl

On December 15, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) inaugurated an oil pipeline running from Kazakhstan to northwest China. The pipeline will undercut the geopolitical significance of the Washington-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)oil pipeline which opened this past summer amid big fanfare and support from Washington.

The geopolitical chess game for the control of the energy flows of Central Asia and overall of Eurasia from the Atlantic to the China

I'll have some analysis by Sunday.