One, One and One, One and Two, One and Three....

I'm just contemplating some numbers, courtesy of the Vote-Masters web site(click on the yellow map to the right)and using his algorithm, which uses poll results for a one wee trailing period.

My assumptions: the margin of error for these polls is approximately 3%; to be truly outside the margin of error one must have a lead of twice the margin of error; the so-called Bradley Effect, which states that minority candidates receive higher poll numbers than actual votes, has not been proved.

Therefore, I believe Sen. Obama has a safe lead, defined as equal to or greater than 10% in the following states: WA, OR, CA, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE ,MD, and Washington, D.C., for a total of 241 safe Electoral Votes.

Using a definition of a probable lead, that being greater than 6%, but less, than 10%, Sen. Obama has leads that fit that criterion in NM, MN, and WV. That gives hime and additional 22 Electoral Votes. I do not have full confidence in those WV polls due to the known difficulty of conducting polls in that state, so eliminating WV's 5 EV's, add another 17 to Obama's 241 and you have 258 EV's for him. He needs 12 more.

CO shows Obama with a steady lead over time and he currently leads by 6 percentage points there. If you are a betting person, put CO's 9 EV's in the Obama column. Likewise for MO, with 11 EV's which currently shows a 6 point Obama lead, but considering that state's voting history in presidential elections, I have little confidence in those numbers and neither should Obama. However, those states could put him over the top, but don't count on it.

I believe we will know the winner of the 2008 Presidential election when we get the results of the states east of the Mississippi.

If Obama now focuses his efforts on the traditional battle ground states of OH and FL, as well as VA, he might just make history of a most exquisite sort.