Obama's Issue

Just as the Russian invasion of Georgia was an issue that highlighted John McCain's perceived strength's, an issue has developed that falls into Obama's lap: the economy.

A CBS/NYTIMES poll, here, states:

(CBS) Nearly half of registered voters say "the economy and jobs" is the most important issue in their decision about whom to support for president, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds.

Forty-eight percent of these voters cited "the economy and jobs," an increase of eight points from one month ago. That's more than 30 percentage points higher than the second most cited issue, "terrorism and national security," cited by 14 percent of registered voters. Another ten percent pointed to "gas prices and energy," while an equal number pointed to health care. Just 8 percent of registered voters cited the war in Iraq.

The poll was conducted between September 12th and 16th, a period of days that was witness to the collapse of Lehman Brothers - the largest bankruptcy in the history of the country - followed by the largest one-day stock market plunge in seven years.

Americans have a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than they did a month ago, but they remain extremely pessimistic. Only 22 percent of Americans say the condition of the national economy is even somewhat good, and six in 10 think the economy is getting worse, not better. About a third of all Americans say they are worse off now than four years ago, and one in five say they are falling behind financially.

Barack Obama rates slightly higher than John McCain in voter confidence in handling the economy, though most voters are at least somewhat confident in both candidates. Sixty percent of voters are very or somewhat confident in Obama's ability to handle the economy, while 53 percent say the same of McCain. Forty-six percent say they are not too confident or not at all confident in McCain, while 39 percent have that opinion of Obama.

Thirty-nine percent of Americans describe the state of the economy as "very bad," down two points from August. Sixty-one percent say it is getting worse, up three points from two months ago.(emphasis TRM)

Of course no one knows the events that will unfurl during the next 48 days before the election, but each side has claimed an area of expertise. Come November 4th , will the prevailing issue be the economy and jobs, or national security? Answer that question and you will be able to predict this year's winner.