Saturday, July 12, 2008

FLIGHTS of FANCY

A valued and loyal reader of this Blog (and believe me, every reader is valued, and if you come back more than once, you definitely are loyal!) asked me to comment on a letter than recently was e-mailed by all the major airlines to their frequent flier customers. I was just about to settle down to consider a nice paper from MIT on Modular Pebble Bed Reactors, but a request from a loyal reader does not go unheeded here at TRM.

Let's admit right off the bat that the airlines are easy targets. Warren Buffett said that, over the course of its history, if you sum up all the books, no one has ever made a dime in the airline industry. Comedian Alan King used to excoriate the industry with regularity on the old Ed Sullivan Show, and that was in the days when flying was seen as the height of privilege and elegance.

So, I'll just print their letter and insert comments as appropriate. The letter is reproduced unedited except for the name of the recipient, and in full at the end of my posting. My comments are in bold.

Dear (Customer Name),

Last week, crude oil hit an all-time high of $146, and the skyrocketing cost of fuel is impacting our customers, our employees, the communities we serve, and the economy as a whole. (Nothing to argue about here. All are statements of fact.)United, and the majority of other major U.S. airlines, are asking our most loyal customers to join us in pushing for legislation to add more transparency and disclosure in the oil markets.(Let's see. Are these the same loyal customers who you want to rip off with unreasonable fees and a fare structure that is closer to a Las Vegas roulette wheel? Have you ever tried to check fares on line? Go to an airline's website and you get a fare. Back out, check another airline, then come back to the first, BOOM , a different fare ((HINT-Clear your cookies before going back to the first web site!)) And these guys are asking for "transparency"?) Please see the attached open letter from the leaders of the U.S. airline industry.

------------------------------------------------------------
An Open letter to All Airline Customers:
------------------------------------------------------------
Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices,(True enough!) but by
pulling together, we can all do something to help now. (CHECK YOUR WALLET!)


For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil
prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain. This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our customers. Since high oil prices are partly (Which part and how much? This is one of those fuzzy, unsupported-by-fact statements that allow the writer to say just about anything.) a response to normal market forces (How about growing industrial needs in China and India; Iran firing off missiles and Israel practicing bombing Iran; Iran producing nuclear material. As they say, "normal market forces", all of which are totally beyond our control.) the nation needs to focus on increased energy supplies and conservation. However,there is another side to this story because normal market
forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly regulated market speculation. (OW! OW! Mr. Kotter! I know I know!)

Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and
then sell it to each other again and again (OH, NO! HOW CRIMINAL!). A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts (Some? Which ones? Don't they have names? Shoddy piece of work, this! And what do others say? How about an increase in demand from Asian markets and general market jitters over the Middle East?

I read an article by Paul Krugman in the NYTIMES on June 27th, in which he stated that the increase of oil tracks the price increase in iron, which is not subject to either Mid East politics or speculative pricing.

...iron ore isn’t traded on a global exchange; its price is set in direct deals between producers and consumers. So there’s no easy way to speculate on ore prices. Yet the price of iron ore, like that of oil, has surged over the past year. In particular, the price Chinese steel makers pay to Australian mines has just jumped 96 percent. This suggests that growing demand from emerging economies, not speculation, is the real story behind rising prices of raw materials, oil included.)
estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs. (So it is OK for you guys to force us to take part in your speculative game of airline ticket prices, but it is not OK for you to take part in a world-wide speculative market. So which part of "world-wide speculative market" did you not understand?)

Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations to control excessive, largely unchecked market speculation and manipulation. However, over the past
two decades (Just for the record-two decades equal 20 years. We had Republican administrations in 12 of those 20, including the last eight. Where were you guys? Just the facts, ma'am!), these regulatory limits have been weakened or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing these limits, along with several other modest measures, will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound market oversight (Don't you just love it? These guys now want "transparency and sound market oversight." I get the giggles from this!). Together, these reforms will help cool the over-heated oil market and permit the economy to prosper. (I love it. They want MORE REGULATION AS LONG AS THEY ARE PROTECTED. How about this, how about more regulation for the airlines. I figure if you want the King's protection, you have to pay for it. Or how about just nationalizing the whole mess and then bringing some rational rate and route structure to the country? As Warren Buffet said, no one has ever made money in the airline business.)

The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil
markets and solve this growing problem (Translation: SAVE US! For US is YOU!

Let's admit that no one likes the airlines anymore. They have an unfair and unintelligible price structure, bait and switch promotions, and front line staff who do their very best to make sure you have a miserable time. For us coach passengers, the airlines try to cram as many people into the smallest space possible without the slightest interest in providing a modicum of comfort. They engage in poor business practices that annoy their customers and they charge for every possible amenity that they haven't eliminated entirely, such as checked luggage((Wait a second!! Checked luggage is not an amenity when the airline loses it!)). How about some honesty, like, "Hey, Folks, We are losing our shirt with these rising fuel prices so we need to raise our base fare, but we won't nickel and dime you to death. And, no, we won't install pay toilets!" How about that?

Nah! Honesty will NEVER work!)
.

We need your help. Get more information and contact
Congress by visiting StopOilSpeculationNow.com.
http://www.unitedoffers.com/600-1sape/101395/235989/6476e6b9e8423ab2c1287f8e02bf5301

(Fun prediction. Between the Scylla and Charybdis of security needs and fuel prices your flying experience will soon look like this. You arrive at the airport and are lead to a small cubicle where you will strip and then don a one-use paper "flying suit", the better to prevent you from carrying on contraband. You will then be thoroughly sedated and placed into a small coffin-like pallet. Your pallet, will be stacked along with those of your fellow travelers in a cargo-like transport airplane. When you arrive at your destination, you will be given a stimulant and your clothes will be returned.

No security problems. No amenities required. No cabin staff needed.You are now cargo. Thank you for flying with us.)





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Dear (Customer Name),

Last week, crude oil hit an all-time high of $146, and the
skyrocketing cost of fuel is impacting our customers, our
employees, the communities we serve, and the economy as a
whole. United, and the majority of other major U.S.
airlines, are asking our most loyal customers to join us in
pushing for legislation to add more transparency and
disclosure in the oil markets. Please see the attached open
letter from the leaders of the U.S. airline industry.

------------------------------------------------------------
An Open letter to All Airline Customers:
------------------------------------------------------------
Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn
because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices, but by
pulling together, we can all do something to help now.

For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of
lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both
large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil
prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain.
This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking
the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our
customers. Since high oil prices are partly a response to
normal market forces, the nation needs to focus on
increased energy supplies and conservation. However,
there is another side to this story because normal market
forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly
regulated market speculation.

Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were
purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with
no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil
speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures
contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that
are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and
then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of
oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and
used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers
pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate
that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per
barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.

Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations
to control excessive, largely unchecked market
speculation and manipulation. However, over the past
two decades, these regulatory limits have been weakened
or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing
these limits, along with several other modest measures,
will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound
market oversight. Together, these reforms will help
cool the over-heated oil market and permit the
economy to prosper.

The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil
markets and solve this growing problem.

We need your help. Get more information and contact
Congress by visiting StopOilSpeculationNow.com.
http://www.unitedoffers.com/600-1sape/101395/235989/6476e6b9e8423ab2c1287f8e02bf5301

Robert Fornaro
Chairman, President and CEO
AirTran Airways

Bill Ayer
Chairman, President and CEO
Alaska Airlines, Inc.

Gerard J. Arpey
Chairman, President and CEO
American Airlines, Inc.

Lawrence W. Kellner
Chairman and CEO
Continental Airlines, Inc.

Richard Anderson
CEO
Delta Air Lines, Inc.

Mark B. Dunkerley
President and CEO
Hawaiian Airlines, Inc.

Dave Barger
CEO
JetBlue Airways Corporation

Timothy E. Hoeksema
Chairman, President and CEO
Midwest Airlines

Douglas M. Steenland
President and CEO
Northwest Airlines, Inc.

Gary Kelly
Chairman and CEO
Southwest Airlines Co.

Glenn F. Tilton
Chairman, President and CEO
United Airlines, Inc.

Douglas Parker
Chairman and CEO
US Airways Group, Inc.

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