Poll Watchers

OK , so Obama again put his foot into his mouth on foreign affairs. Do you think anyone except hard-core wonks are really watching or listening just yet?

In line with my opinion that the national polls only help candidates raise money, and that gaining the Democratic nomination really is like a steeplechase race, with each candidate having to encounter several hurdles, otherwise known as primaries, I took a look at the July polls by American Research Group. Some interesting results.

Fist, look at Iowa

Iowa
Likely Democratic Caucus Goers

Clinton 30%
Edwards 21%
Obama 15%

Clearly, Clinton shows a significant lead. This has to be a major disappointment for Edward who has spent a lot of time and money in Iowa.

Now, lets move to the next state in the race, New Hampshire:

New Hampshire
Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Clinton 31%
Edwards 14%
Obama 31%
Undecided 13%

Bad news for Clinton! Hillary and Obama are statistically TIED!

Next up is South Carolina:

South Carolina
Likely Democratic Primary Voters

Jul 2007
Clinton 29%
Edwards 18%
Obama 33%
Undecided 12%

Whoa! Obama shows a slight lead.

Statistically insignificant, I'm sure. But my point is this: If you follow the primaries in sequence, the polls show that it may be harder for Hillary to get the nomination than she thinks, as Obama shows strength in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. The big surprise is Iowa, which had appeared to be in Edwards's corner.