This article in the NY TIMES details what may have been a cyberwar attack by Russia against Georgia prior to the invsion.
The TIMES refuses to call a spade a spade. Russia attacked in cyberspace. While Georgia is not as dependent on the internet as more developed countries, we have to understand that we will be similarly targeted should Russia or China , or even Al Queda decide to do so.
Cyberwar is a perfect weapon for any enemy to use. It it cheap, it can be carried out from any place in the world, and it is almost untraceable.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Letters to Putin
This is really funny, as Homer Simpson would say, 'cause it's true.
Or true enough.
Kathleen Parker of Real Clear Politics channels George Bush, Barack Obama, and John McCain to see what they are or would or would be telling Vladimir Putin if they were in the appropriate position.
Or true enough.
Kathleen Parker of Real Clear Politics channels George Bush, Barack Obama, and John McCain to see what they are or would or would be telling Vladimir Putin if they were in the appropriate position.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Georgia on my Mind
A few thoughts on the trouble in Georgia:
1. The rapid introduction of Russian land, air and naval forces indicates that this was planned some months ago.
2. The Russians are in South Osettia to stay. They reject neutral peackeepers and will allow only their forces to remain in place.
3. The Russians will be happy with nothing less than "regime change" in Tibilisi. They want to show the other former Soviet states that they will not tolerate strong relations with the west, exemplified by NATO membership, or democracy in these former Soviet republics. They prefer the status qua ante, and for the Russian it refers to the time before the demise of the Soviet Union.
4. The Russian claim that their invasion was a response to the Georgian offensive to reclaim their breakaway province of South Osettia. However, the Georgian offensive began this past Friday, and it is obvious from its broad scope on land and sea, that the Russian military "response" was planned long ago for forces to be appropriately positioned for their actions. As stated in the knowledgeable web site Abu Muqawama:(and Georgia is on their mind, too!)
5. One of the more interesting reasons that I've herd for the massive Russian action has to do with oil. The always interesting Debka website posits:
DEBKA also considers the overall strategic impact of the Russian moves.
Note that these former Soviet states have come into the western orbit over the past few years.
Here is another interesting explanation of the Georgia-Russia war that hearkens back to post WW1 Europe:
The current situation is not wholly without precedent, but instead calls to mind the landscape of the Caucasus after WWI. In the wake of the Russian Revolutions and the disintegration of the Russian Empire in 1917, Wilhelmine Germany encouraged Georgian Mensheviks in May 1918 to proclaim Georgia a sovereign and independent state. Even as it was still engaged in a titanic struggle against France, Britain and the United States, Germany had its eyes on the future exploitation of the Caucasus and had identified Georgia as the key to control of the export of Caucasian and Caspian resources, and of oil in particular. In a similar way, the US and the EU have regarded the independence of Georgia as critical for the diversification of export routes for Eurasian energy resources beyond Russian (and Iranian) control.
[...]
The current situation is not wholly without precedent, but instead calls to mind the landscape of the Caucasus after WWI. In the wake of the Russian Revolutions and the disintegration of the Russian Empire in 1917, Wilhelmine Germany encouraged Georgian Mensheviks in May 1918 to proclaim Georgia a sovereign and independent state. Even as it was still engaged in a titanic struggle against France, Britain and the United States, Germany had its eyes on the future exploitation of the Caucasus and had identified Georgia as the key to control of the export of Caucasian and Caspian resources, and of oil in particular. In a similar way, the US and the EU have regarded the independence of Georgia as critical for the diversification of export routes for Eurasian energy resources beyond Russian (and Iranian) control.
[...]
Washington thus may well find itself facing a much bigger and messier crisis than it had ever bargained for in backing the youthful but perhaps too dynamic Saakashvili. It is difficult to argue that Georgia itself is a vital US interest ( ensuring a diversity of energy supplies is a real and growing concern for the EU, but the EU has little leverage with which to use against Russia). Moreover, as Moscow as only too aware, Washington has enough problems to contend with, ranging from Iraq, a worsening situation in Afghanistan, the probability of a nuclear armed Iran, and a domestic economy headed into recession. Yet with Georgian forces in Iraq and Georgia’s status as a candidate for NATO membership, Washington will find it difficult to wash its hands of Georgia without suffering a major loss of face and credibility. Moscow would find few outcomes more gratifying than that.
1. The rapid introduction of Russian land, air and naval forces indicates that this was planned some months ago.
2. The Russians are in South Osettia to stay. They reject neutral peackeepers and will allow only their forces to remain in place.
3. The Russians will be happy with nothing less than "regime change" in Tibilisi. They want to show the other former Soviet states that they will not tolerate strong relations with the west, exemplified by NATO membership, or democracy in these former Soviet republics. They prefer the status qua ante, and for the Russian it refers to the time before the demise of the Soviet Union.
4. The Russian claim that their invasion was a response to the Georgian offensive to reclaim their breakaway province of South Osettia. However, the Georgian offensive began this past Friday, and it is obvious from its broad scope on land and sea, that the Russian military "response" was planned long ago for forces to be appropriately positioned for their actions. As stated in the knowledgeable web site Abu Muqawama:(and Georgia is on their mind, too!)
The Russian military happened to be ramping up for this week. Their response would not have been so swift if they were caught by surprise. This was pre-planned trap by having S.O. militias provoke a Georgian military response.
5. One of the more interesting reasons that I've herd for the massive Russian action has to do with oil. The always interesting Debka website posits:
Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network. Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to Israel’s oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean.
Aware of Moscow’s sensitivity on the oil question, Israel offered Russia a stake in the project but was rejected.
Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime. Tbilisi also purchased weapons, intelligence and electronic warfare systems from Israel.
These advisers were undoubtedly deeply involved in the Georgian army’s preparations to conquer the South Ossetian capital Friday.
In recent weeks, Moscow has repeatedly demanded that Jerusalem halt its military assistance to Georgia, finally threatening a crisis in bilateral relations. Israel responded by saying that the only assistance rendered Tbilisi was “defensive.”
This has not gone down well in the Kremlin. Therefore, as the military crisis intensifies in South Ossetia, Moscow may be expected to punish Israel for its intervention.
DEBKA also considers the overall strategic impact of the Russian moves.
While the world’s attention was fixed on the Russian-Georgian contest over two breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, DEBKAfile’s exclusive military sources reveal that Russia has massed a fleet of warships and marine forces opposite the Gerogia's semi-autonomous Black Sea region of Ajaria.
Moscow is preparing to punish what it regards as Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili’s further provocations by occupying this coastal strip on Georgia’s southwestern border with Turkey.
The appearance of Ukraine’s president Viktor Yushchenko alongside Saakashvili, leaders of the pro-Western Orange and Rose Revolutions, at a huge national rally outside the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi Tuesday night, Aug. 12, may well be seen by the Kremlin as over the top. It came hours after Russian President Dimitry Medvedev’s gesture to the European mediation bid of ordering the Russian military operation in Georgia halted there and then.
Half of Ajaria’s ethnically Georgian population professes Islam, in contrast to the country’s Christian majority. The other half is Russian.
Ajarian has come to mean a Georgian Muslim.
The Russian Black Sea buildup is deployed opposite the Ajurian capital of Batumi, an important port for the shipment of oil from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Its oil refinery handles Caspian oil from Azerbaijan.
When Saakashvili was elected president five years ago, the region’s leaders refused to recognize his authority and maintained close ties with Moscow up until May 2004 when, after Ajurians demonstrated against Tbilisi, he ordered them to obey the Georgian constitution and disarm.
Russia maintained a military base at Batumi which it agreed to close by November 2007.
DEBKAfile’s sources report that by recovering the base, Moscow will not only punish the Georgian president, but also profit from the turmoil of the past week in three ways:
1. A third semi-autonomous province will be hacked off Georgian territory after the loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
2. Russia will gain a strategic Black Sea foothold at Turkey’s back door.
3. It will also control a gateway to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Note that these former Soviet states have come into the western orbit over the past few years.
Here is another interesting explanation of the Georgia-Russia war that hearkens back to post WW1 Europe:
The current situation is not wholly without precedent, but instead calls to mind the landscape of the Caucasus after WWI. In the wake of the Russian Revolutions and the disintegration of the Russian Empire in 1917, Wilhelmine Germany encouraged Georgian Mensheviks in May 1918 to proclaim Georgia a sovereign and independent state. Even as it was still engaged in a titanic struggle against France, Britain and the United States, Germany had its eyes on the future exploitation of the Caucasus and had identified Georgia as the key to control of the export of Caucasian and Caspian resources, and of oil in particular. In a similar way, the US and the EU have regarded the independence of Georgia as critical for the diversification of export routes for Eurasian energy resources beyond Russian (and Iranian) control.
[...]
The current situation is not wholly without precedent, but instead calls to mind the landscape of the Caucasus after WWI. In the wake of the Russian Revolutions and the disintegration of the Russian Empire in 1917, Wilhelmine Germany encouraged Georgian Mensheviks in May 1918 to proclaim Georgia a sovereign and independent state. Even as it was still engaged in a titanic struggle against France, Britain and the United States, Germany had its eyes on the future exploitation of the Caucasus and had identified Georgia as the key to control of the export of Caucasian and Caspian resources, and of oil in particular. In a similar way, the US and the EU have regarded the independence of Georgia as critical for the diversification of export routes for Eurasian energy resources beyond Russian (and Iranian) control.
[...]
Washington thus may well find itself facing a much bigger and messier crisis than it had ever bargained for in backing the youthful but perhaps too dynamic Saakashvili. It is difficult to argue that Georgia itself is a vital US interest ( ensuring a diversity of energy supplies is a real and growing concern for the EU, but the EU has little leverage with which to use against Russia). Moreover, as Moscow as only too aware, Washington has enough problems to contend with, ranging from Iraq, a worsening situation in Afghanistan, the probability of a nuclear armed Iran, and a domestic economy headed into recession. Yet with Georgian forces in Iraq and Georgia’s status as a candidate for NATO membership, Washington will find it difficult to wash its hands of Georgia without suffering a major loss of face and credibility. Moscow would find few outcomes more gratifying than that.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Be True to Your School
I'm waiting for the leftists in the United States and Western Europe, those professed paragons human rights, to organize massive marches with banners flying, "Russia Out of Georgia!". But since they can't protest against the United States, they will remain silent. Where is "Code Pink"? Where are the radical grannies?
Their silence speaks volumes.
Their silence speaks volumes.
Bear Facts
Here are the Russian successes on the international front:
They successfully protested the US's desired placement of an anti-ballistic missile system in various countries, including the Czech Republic. Despite repeated assurances that the system was designed to combat Iranian missiles and also despite the US's offer to allow the Russians full access to the command and control systems, the Russians said "Nyet". And we bowed to their wishes.
The Russians continued to thwart out efforts in the United Nations to place significant sanctions against the Iranians for the latters failure to come clean with international authorities concerning their nuclear development programs. Russian intransigence on the diplomatic front makes military actions by either the United States of Israel, or both, more probable. Further , the Russians have sold and are in the process of installing a sophisticated air defense system around those nuclear development sites.
While singing his own unique version of Hoagy Carmichael's "Georgia on My Mind", Prime Minister Putin sent his troops across recognized international borders and invaded that former Soviet republic, now an independent, capitalist, democratic state with the apparent intention of either re-absorbing it into Russia or destroying its current government and installing a puppet government in its place. The weakness of the west is too painful to describe as the decisions have been made not to take any action to aid the Georgians in their confrontation with the Russian armies.
The shame of our impotence is best expressed here:
The West has become expert at limp-wristed hand wringing and KGB man Vladimir Putin knows it and he will press every advantage he can find.
They successfully protested the US's desired placement of an anti-ballistic missile system in various countries, including the Czech Republic. Despite repeated assurances that the system was designed to combat Iranian missiles and also despite the US's offer to allow the Russians full access to the command and control systems, the Russians said "Nyet". And we bowed to their wishes.
The Russians continued to thwart out efforts in the United Nations to place significant sanctions against the Iranians for the latters failure to come clean with international authorities concerning their nuclear development programs. Russian intransigence on the diplomatic front makes military actions by either the United States of Israel, or both, more probable. Further , the Russians have sold and are in the process of installing a sophisticated air defense system around those nuclear development sites.
While singing his own unique version of Hoagy Carmichael's "Georgia on My Mind", Prime Minister Putin sent his troops across recognized international borders and invaded that former Soviet republic, now an independent, capitalist, democratic state with the apparent intention of either re-absorbing it into Russia or destroying its current government and installing a puppet government in its place. The weakness of the west is too painful to describe as the decisions have been made not to take any action to aid the Georgians in their confrontation with the Russian armies.
The shame of our impotence is best expressed here:
GORI, Georgia — In retreat, the Georgian soldiers were so tired they could not keep from stumbling. Their arms were loaded with rucksacks and ammunition boxes; they had dark circles under their eyes. Officers ran up and down the line, barking for them to go faster.
All along the road was grief. Old men pushed wheelbarrows loaded with bags or led cows by tethers. They drove tractors and rickety Ladas packed with suitcases and televisions.
As a column of soldiers passed through Gori, a black-robed priest came out of his church and made the sign of the cross again and again.
One soldier, his face a mask of exhaustion, cradled a Kalashnikov.
“We killed as many of them as we could,” he said. “But where are our friends?”
It was the question of the day. As Russian forces massed Sunday on two fronts, Georgians were heading south with whatever they could carry. When they met Western journalists, they all said the same thing: Where is the United States? When is NATO coming?
The West has become expert at limp-wristed hand wringing and KGB man Vladimir Putin knows it and he will press every advantage he can find.
Fun in a Police State 2
When you have total control of the media it is possible to do this.
Part of the elaborate Olympics fireworks show broadcast to the world in the opening ceremony was altered, done digitally in 3-D computer graphics, according to several news reports.
While the dramatic display actually happened as portrayed on television, members of the Beijing Olympic Committee said it was necessary to replace live video with computer-generated imagery because the city’s hazy, smoggy skies made it too difficult to see, according to The Beijing Times, which first reported the story.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
KGB in Charge
Vladimir Putin is firmly in charge of Russia.
The ex-KGB apparatchik fooled President Bush years ago,when Bush claimed that he looked into Putin's soul and said "We could do business with him," but could anyone really claim that was due to a spectacular effort of deception on Putin's part, or did he just depend on the information contained in his dossier on the nincompoop president?
While the eyes of the world are focused on the Beijing Olympics, Putin's Russian military is trying to re-establish the old Soviet union by force of arms, as the Georgians, who previously requested admission to NATO, fight back with their more limited resources.
Of course, the West and NATO will do nothing except wring its hands, ask for Russian withdrawals and diplomatic talks, and weep for the dead. Once again, NATO is proved to be as effective as a moth when it comes to dealing with a real threat.
For Putin, this is another major victory, and they are adding up. He maintains his position of power in the Russian government. He stymies the US desire for strong sanctions against Iran. And now he launches his troops to assimilate Georgia like Star Trek's Borg. Can you hear Putin saying, "Resistance is futile"? I can.
The ex-KGB apparatchik fooled President Bush years ago,when Bush claimed that he looked into Putin's soul and said "We could do business with him," but could anyone really claim that was due to a spectacular effort of deception on Putin's part, or did he just depend on the information contained in his dossier on the nincompoop president?
While the eyes of the world are focused on the Beijing Olympics, Putin's Russian military is trying to re-establish the old Soviet union by force of arms, as the Georgians, who previously requested admission to NATO, fight back with their more limited resources.
Of course, the West and NATO will do nothing except wring its hands, ask for Russian withdrawals and diplomatic talks, and weep for the dead. Once again, NATO is proved to be as effective as a moth when it comes to dealing with a real threat.
For Putin, this is another major victory, and they are adding up. He maintains his position of power in the Russian government. He stymies the US desire for strong sanctions against Iran. And now he launches his troops to assimilate Georgia like Star Trek's Borg. Can you hear Putin saying, "Resistance is futile"? I can.
Bomb, Bomb, Bomb,Bomb, Bomb, Iran
If the United States and/or Israel want to bomb the nuclear facilities of Iran, the deadline is closing in on a daily basis.
Among the items to consider are:
1.When Russia will complete the sale of air defense missiles to Iran.
2. The end of the Bush Presidency
3. The end of the Olmert Prime Ministry in Israel
4. Status of Israeli air and defense forces. While everyone is watching the Air Force, keep your eyes on Israel's submarine forces, which can strike undetected from closer range:
5. The phases of the moon, specifically, whether Israeli pilots would need a dark, moonless night, or a full moon to aid in target identification.
Check out this table for moon phases through the end of this year:
If Israel attacks Iran before the election in November, they could have an unintended impact of serious consequences on the outcome. Therefore, IF Israel decides to attack, the most probable dates are ( +/- 2) Nov. 16, Dec. 1, Dec. 15, Dec, 31.
Let's hope that diplomacy works. In this analysis in today's NYTIMES MAGAZINE, Noah Feldman looks at all the the sabre rattling and the diplomatic talks and concludes:
However, if North Korea could master nuclear technology to the point where it could construct an explosive device, I have no doubt that those capabilities also are within Iran's reach.
The biggest questions are whether we are dealing with ideologues or pragmatists in Iran, whether Russia, which currently is flexing its military muscle in Georgia, sees it to be in its interest to defang Iran, and whether China would risk a reduction in its oil supply from Iran. If the ideologues are in control, if the Russians want instability, and if the Chinese must maintain their rate of industrialization, then war draws closer.
Among the items to consider are:
1.When Russia will complete the sale of air defense missiles to Iran.
2. The end of the Bush Presidency
3. The end of the Olmert Prime Ministry in Israel
4. Status of Israeli air and defense forces. While everyone is watching the Air Force, keep your eyes on Israel's submarine forces, which can strike undetected from closer range:
Some reports suggest that Israel has adapted Harpoon cruise missiles, which have a range of 130 kilometers, to carry an indigenously developed nuclear warhead and guidance system, though other experts argue that such modifications to a Harpoon missile are not feasible.[6] Others believe that Israel has developed an indigenous cruise missile with a range of 320 kilometers that is believed to be a version of Rafael Armament Development Authority’s Popeye turbo cruise missile.[7] Still others believe that the missile may be a version of the Gabriel 4LR that is produced by Israel Aircraft Industries. Once encapsulated, it could be launched in 533mm torpedo tubes similar to the Harpoon.[8] Such speculation was further fueled by an unconfirmed test of a nuclear-capable, submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) in the Indian Ocean in 2000. Some reports claimed targets 1,500 kilometers away were hit.[7,9] Such a range, however, implies an entirely new type of missile.[7,8,10] However, the Israeli Defense Forces denies any such missile tests.[7,11]
5. The phases of the moon, specifically, whether Israeli pilots would need a dark, moonless night, or a full moon to aid in target identification.
Check out this table for moon phases through the end of this year:
NEW MOON FIRST QUARTER FULL MOON LAST QUARTER
d h m d h m d h m d h m
AUG. 5 3 05 AUG. 13 2 38 AUG. 19 17 53 AUG. 26 15 18
SEPT. 3 18 45 SEPT. 11 11 37 SEPT. 18 2 01 SEPT. 25 6 41
OCT. 3 10 28 OCT. 10 19 01 OCT. 17 12 14 OCT. 25 1 17
NOV. 2 1 24 NOV. 9 1 57 NOV. 16 0 57 NOV. 23 22 11
DEC. 1 15 01 DEC. 8 9 36 DEC. 15 16 15 DEC. 23 19 36
DEC. 31 3 12
If Israel attacks Iran before the election in November, they could have an unintended impact of serious consequences on the outcome. Therefore, IF Israel decides to attack, the most probable dates are ( +/- 2) Nov. 16, Dec. 1, Dec. 15, Dec, 31.
Let's hope that diplomacy works. In this analysis in today's NYTIMES MAGAZINE, Noah Feldman looks at all the the sabre rattling and the diplomatic talks and concludes:
So which script will play out, the threat of war or the dull hum of diplomats negotiating a modus vivendi that might someday be called peace? The answer lies in no small part with the Iranian government, itself a complex mix of ideologues and foreign-policy professionals under the not-always-watchful eye of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If Iran is in fact close to developing functioning nuclear weapons, then it probably will not compromise. As North Korea has shown, even a few weapons are enough to enhance a country’s status and bargaining power immensely. If, however, Iran’s leaders assess the difficulties of mastering centrifuge technology as a real barrier to gaining weapons, they might as well negotiate and try to get the best deal they can while the U.S. and Israel are worried about them.
Paradoxically, then, saber rattling against Iran may help achieve political resolution. It could turn out that the more it looks as if the coming months may bring war, the more likely it becomes that winter will instead bring meaningful progress toward peace.
However, if North Korea could master nuclear technology to the point where it could construct an explosive device, I have no doubt that those capabilities also are within Iran's reach.
The biggest questions are whether we are dealing with ideologues or pragmatists in Iran, whether Russia, which currently is flexing its military muscle in Georgia, sees it to be in its interest to defang Iran, and whether China would risk a reduction in its oil supply from Iran. If the ideologues are in control, if the Russians want instability, and if the Chinese must maintain their rate of industrialization, then war draws closer.
Saturday, August 9, 2008
China, or How to Have Fun in a Police State
From Voice of America:
A Tibetan rights group says five of its members protested in Beijing's Tiananmen Square Saturday and were detained by authorities.
The group Free Tibet says three Americans and one German laid down and covered themselves with Tibetan flags while a Canadian told the story of China's invasion and occupation of Tibet.
The group says the protest lasted ten minutes before police led away the three men and two women.
In Hong Kong, security personnel removed at least one protester from an Olympic equestrian event Saturday, after an attempt to display a Tibetan flag.
Christina Chan, who became well-known for her protests during the Hong Kong leg of the Olympic torch relay in May, was ejected from the event. It is not known if the university student was placed under arrest.
China kept tight control in Beijing Friday, but foreign demonstrators managed to breach security at Beijing's main Olympic venue to stage a brief protest just before the opening ceremony of the Games. The U.S.-based group Students for a Free Tibet says three Americans displayed Tibetan flags for less than a minute before being detained.
Elsewhere Friday, protests against China's human rights record were held in a number of countries, including India, Nepal, Turkey, England, France, Belgium, Germany and Thailand.
Most demonstrators focused on China's treatment of Tibetans. Others focused on China's restrictions on freedom of religion and expression, as well as its treatment of minorities.
Getcha Scorecard Here!!
CQ Politics has this nifty scorecard that shows just where your congressperson and senator stands on key issues.
Note to the lefty Dems who want to drum Connecticut's Senator Joe Lieberman out of the party: He votes with his party 87% of the time, more than many other Democrats.
Note to the lefty Dems who want to drum Connecticut's Senator Joe Lieberman out of the party: He votes with his party 87% of the time, more than many other Democrats.
Opening Ceremony 2012
I think the Olympic opening ceremony has gotten a bit out of hand so here is my proposal for the London 2012.
The parade of teams is lead into the stadium by the white-coated medics who check whether any of the athletes are doping. After all the teams are in place, one guy in a toga releases one dove. Another guy in a toga, flicks a BIC lighter and lights a hibachi. Let the games begin!
The parade of teams is lead into the stadium by the white-coated medics who check whether any of the athletes are doping. After all the teams are in place, one guy in a toga releases one dove. Another guy in a toga, flicks a BIC lighter and lights a hibachi. Let the games begin!
Friday, August 8, 2008
Watching the Olympics
Thoughts on the opening ceremony:
Beautiful ceremony but:
Everyone looks the same. Cloning? A giant xerox machine? In a country that large,homogeneous, and under totalitarian rule, the authorities can select an almost infinite number of people based on the way they look to present a uniform appearance.
...
If one guy or girl made a mistake in the choreographed performances, they will "disappear". "Yo!Wang 136.You kinda dropped that oar in the ship scene. Step this way." No way they would allow someone to embarrass the party and get away with it.
...
It is so easy to do so many of these things with slave labor. All of those prison camps had to be working overtime.
...
Wonder what kind of show they would have been able to put on if they had to contend with unions and OSHA?
...
How many citizens of Beijing were made to "disappear" for the duration of the games?
...
So the director of the show didn't like the black light suits the guys originally had and immediately ordered 2000 in green? I bet the prisoners had to work nights and weekends for that change order!
...
Did I miss it or did they just happen to gloss over Mao, the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution? And a couple million deaths?
...
And the Party, itself?
...
Totalitarian states sure make things look pretty.
...
Going forward, count how many times the announcers chalk up the terrible smog to "morning fog".
...
Nominated for worst team uniform: Hungary-Women. What were they thinking? Hadn't they ever watched one episode of "What Not to Wear"?. Runner up-Denmark. looks as though they bought some clam-diggers at the last minute at Old Navy.
...
Admit it. You loved those Chinese "cheerleaders" who lined the track, waving their arms in welcome, and wearing those short, white dresses and white go-go boots.
...
Very warm welcome for the United States team. If I recall correctly, the chinese name for the United states is Mei Mei, "Beautiful Country". Wonder if any regular Chinese citizens are actually spectators in the stadium?
...
Nominated for newest Olympic event: "Twister"! Then "Boggle"!
...
One of the best team costumes was Mongolia. Do you remember several Olympics past, when the Mongolian delegation consisted on one guy, either a weightlifter or wrestler, massive guy, who carried his country's flag on one of his hands while holding his arm outstretched for the entire lap of the field.? Impressive. Oh, and he was wearing some kind of animal skin. VERY Impressive!
...
Guilty Pleasure-The gorgeous women who carried in each country's name placard.
...
Remember when all the teams marched in with military precision and stayed in their designated infield areas? Much nicer to see a little more relaxed approach to this business. In the "old" day, the only times the teams mixed was during the closing ceremony.
...
Love the costumes of the African and Pacific nations. US team uniforms were more classic 1930s style from Ralph Lauren (The former Ralph Lifshitz of the Bronx. You can run but you can't hide, Ralphie Boy!)
...
Looking forward to watching 40 year old Dara Torres compete. Go, Girl!
...
China enters the stadium. Massive cheers. Never forget that China is one of this planet's most politically repressive countries.
...
Massive and beautiful fireworks from the inventors of the art.
...
Bob Costas and his on air buddy are nauseating. They have a lot of time to fill and it's a tough job. But they clutter the air with utter nonsense.
...
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
Beautiful ceremony but:
Everyone looks the same. Cloning? A giant xerox machine? In a country that large,homogeneous, and under totalitarian rule, the authorities can select an almost infinite number of people based on the way they look to present a uniform appearance.
...
If one guy or girl made a mistake in the choreographed performances, they will "disappear". "Yo!Wang 136.You kinda dropped that oar in the ship scene. Step this way." No way they would allow someone to embarrass the party and get away with it.
...
It is so easy to do so many of these things with slave labor. All of those prison camps had to be working overtime.
...
Wonder what kind of show they would have been able to put on if they had to contend with unions and OSHA?
...
How many citizens of Beijing were made to "disappear" for the duration of the games?
...
So the director of the show didn't like the black light suits the guys originally had and immediately ordered 2000 in green? I bet the prisoners had to work nights and weekends for that change order!
...
Did I miss it or did they just happen to gloss over Mao, the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution? And a couple million deaths?
...
And the Party, itself?
...
Totalitarian states sure make things look pretty.
...
Going forward, count how many times the announcers chalk up the terrible smog to "morning fog".
...
Nominated for worst team uniform: Hungary-Women. What were they thinking? Hadn't they ever watched one episode of "What Not to Wear"?. Runner up-Denmark. looks as though they bought some clam-diggers at the last minute at Old Navy.
...
Admit it. You loved those Chinese "cheerleaders" who lined the track, waving their arms in welcome, and wearing those short, white dresses and white go-go boots.
...
Very warm welcome for the United States team. If I recall correctly, the chinese name for the United states is Mei Mei, "Beautiful Country". Wonder if any regular Chinese citizens are actually spectators in the stadium?
...
Nominated for newest Olympic event: "Twister"! Then "Boggle"!
...
One of the best team costumes was Mongolia. Do you remember several Olympics past, when the Mongolian delegation consisted on one guy, either a weightlifter or wrestler, massive guy, who carried his country's flag on one of his hands while holding his arm outstretched for the entire lap of the field.? Impressive. Oh, and he was wearing some kind of animal skin. VERY Impressive!
...
Guilty Pleasure-The gorgeous women who carried in each country's name placard.
...
Remember when all the teams marched in with military precision and stayed in their designated infield areas? Much nicer to see a little more relaxed approach to this business. In the "old" day, the only times the teams mixed was during the closing ceremony.
...
Love the costumes of the African and Pacific nations. US team uniforms were more classic 1930s style from Ralph Lauren (The former Ralph Lifshitz of the Bronx. You can run but you can't hide, Ralphie Boy!)
...
Looking forward to watching 40 year old Dara Torres compete. Go, Girl!
...
China enters the stadium. Massive cheers. Never forget that China is one of this planet's most politically repressive countries.
...
Massive and beautiful fireworks from the inventors of the art.
...
Bob Costas and his on air buddy are nauseating. They have a lot of time to fill and it's a tough job. But they clutter the air with utter nonsense.
...
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Polls Apart
The difficulty of conducting accurate political polls grows daily. Our more mobile society, which depends more on unlisted cell phones than traditional landline phones, is more difficult to measure accurately pollsters find, as several important demographic groups, the young, for example, have disappeared from the usual sources of telephone numbers used by pollsters.
This year, those missing demographic groups just might participate in the November presidential election in numbers large enough to confound the pollsters. Anopther confounding factor is the willingness of poll subjects to truthfully indicate whether they will vote for a black man.
This article in CQ Politics takes a close look at the difficulties in obtaining a valid and reliable poll.
Take a few minutes to read this worthwhile examination of one of our favorite election year activities.
This year, those missing demographic groups just might participate in the November presidential election in numbers large enough to confound the pollsters. Anopther confounding factor is the willingness of poll subjects to truthfully indicate whether they will vote for a black man.
This article in CQ Politics takes a close look at the difficulties in obtaining a valid and reliable poll.
Experts inside and outside the industry question whether pollsters are capturing big enough samples of the population at a time when Americans are increasingly on the move and more likely to be at work or in their cars in the early evening, when many surveys are conducted.
This is all creating considerable angst in a business that remains haunted by a series of Election Night gaffes that helped set the stage for the contested 2000 presidential outcome, and that was shaken again by a series of erroneous forecasts of an Obama victory in January’s New Hampshire primary.
Take a few minutes to read this worthwhile examination of one of our favorite election year activities.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Paris Hilton For Pres.
In case you missed this most talked about video, here it is:
Didja evah?? Paris talks! Paris makes sense! And she is so hot!
(But really! Gold heels at the pool??)
See more Paris Hilton videos at Funny or Die
Didja evah?? Paris talks! Paris makes sense! And she is so hot!
(But really! Gold heels at the pool??)
Brent Rinehart Update
Oklahoma County Republicans ordered County Commissioner Brent Rinehart to find another line of work as he went down to defeat in the July 29th party primary. The Daily Oklahoman reported:
In case you missed it, CNN interviewed Rinehart before the primary. Here is a link to that clip, which contains sections of his vitriolic "comic book".
Oklahoma County will have a new county commissioner next year after voters booted District 2 Commissioner Brent Rinehart from office Tuesday.
The embattled and controversial Rinehart received only 21 percent of the vote and failed to make a runoff in the Republican primary.
[...]
Brian Maughan received 4,230 votes, or 47 percent, and J.D. Johnston received 2,808, or 31 percent. They’ll square off in an Aug. 26 Republican runoff to decide who faces Democrat Jim Dickinson in the general election.
Maughan said he and Johnston pledged to run positive runoff campaigns.
“Our main concern was to replace Rinehart, and obviously that happened tonight,” Maughan said.
[...]
Rinehart hurdles included felony campaign finance charges related to his 2004 campaign and Internal Revenue Service scrutiny related to his tax returns.
Rinehart has said both are politically motivated.
Also, a comic book Rinehart’s campaign released this month received national criticism.
In case you missed it, CNN interviewed Rinehart before the primary. Here is a link to that clip, which contains sections of his vitriolic "comic book".
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Flights of Fancy II
On July 12th, I posted a letter that went out from several airline CEOs to their frequent fliers in which they begged for government assistance as the high price of fuel was killing their businesses.
Now that oil has dropped from $150 a barrel to below $120, and with further declines in price probable due to a slowing world economy, what do you hear from the airlines? Silence. Well, not really silence, because they keep thinking up and announcing these new and wonderful "temporary" fees. Yesterday, Jet Blue announced it will begin selling pillows and blankets on board their jets. jey Blue claims it is doing this for health and environmental reasons but does anyone above the age of two believe that?
And when will all of those "temporary fees" be rescinded, now that oil is down $30 a barrel? Forgive me, but I just burst out laughing! Next time you fly, just make sure you bring plenty of quarters so you can use the lavatory, because that is sure to be the next "temporary fee" that will be imposed.
Now that oil has dropped from $150 a barrel to below $120, and with further declines in price probable due to a slowing world economy, what do you hear from the airlines? Silence. Well, not really silence, because they keep thinking up and announcing these new and wonderful "temporary" fees. Yesterday, Jet Blue announced it will begin selling pillows and blankets on board their jets. jey Blue claims it is doing this for health and environmental reasons but does anyone above the age of two believe that?
And when will all of those "temporary fees" be rescinded, now that oil is down $30 a barrel? Forgive me, but I just burst out laughing! Next time you fly, just make sure you bring plenty of quarters so you can use the lavatory, because that is sure to be the next "temporary fee" that will be imposed.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Panic in Obamaville?
The August 4 Gallup Poll has Sen. Obama leading Sen. McCain 46% to 43% among registered voters, maintaining what has been a long standing statistical tie. As the Gallup people state:
Total voters surveyed was 2,659 over a period of three days. MoE +/-2%
These results have to cause some bright light in the Obama headquarters to break into a sweat. Here they are, just coming off a Presidential quality tour of Europe and Iraq. They have the more charismatic candidate- the other guy is old and decrepit. Obama can wow a crowd of thousands. McCain can't deal with a teleprompter in a closet. Obama is the Ivy League educated lawyer. McCain is a shot-up and shot-down ex-fighter jock. Obama represents change. McCain represents a president loathed by the American people for starting an unnecessary war and trashing the economy.
Yet Obama can't break away from McCain in the polls. Even worse, McCain has caused Obama to tap dance like Bojangles on the issue of offshore oil drilling. MCain's Paris/Brittany attack ad caused Obama to overtly bring up the issue of when the Democrat said during a public appearance that he didn't look like all those guys depicted on our dollar bills.
Sure, we haven't even had the party conventions yet, but our bright light has to be thinking, "We have the candidate. We have the issues. We have the answers.Yet we are basically tied in the polls. So just what do we have to do to put this old man away"?
And the beads of sweat grow just a little larger.
The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.
Total voters surveyed was 2,659 over a period of three days. MoE +/-2%
These results have to cause some bright light in the Obama headquarters to break into a sweat. Here they are, just coming off a Presidential quality tour of Europe and Iraq. They have the more charismatic candidate- the other guy is old and decrepit. Obama can wow a crowd of thousands. McCain can't deal with a teleprompter in a closet. Obama is the Ivy League educated lawyer. McCain is a shot-up and shot-down ex-fighter jock. Obama represents change. McCain represents a president loathed by the American people for starting an unnecessary war and trashing the economy.
Yet Obama can't break away from McCain in the polls. Even worse, McCain has caused Obama to tap dance like Bojangles on the issue of offshore oil drilling. MCain's Paris/Brittany attack ad caused Obama to overtly bring up the issue of when the Democrat said during a public appearance that he didn't look like all those guys depicted on our dollar bills.
Sure, we haven't even had the party conventions yet, but our bright light has to be thinking, "We have the candidate. We have the issues. We have the answers.Yet we are basically tied in the polls. So just what do we have to do to put this old man away"?
And the beads of sweat grow just a little larger.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Race and Polls
The issue of race is inevitably linked to the Obama campaign. Previously, I have written about the overt racism that has been directed towards Obama's campaign and I have wondered whether the polls are accurately reflecting the race issue.
The Wall Street Journal has an interesting story on how the pollsters approach this subject and try to get accurate results.
It should come as no surprise that people lie to pollsters in order to look god, to project the image of themselves to a stranger that they want the stranger to believe, rather than what one would consider the absolute truth.
This is one reason I tend to think that polls are inflating Obama-positive results by approximately 2%-3%. This may or may not have enough power to effect the election results and result in a John McCain presidency.
The Wall Street Journal has an interesting story on how the pollsters approach this subject and try to get accurate results.
Peter Hart, a Democrat on a bipartisan team conducting the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, estimates that 10% of current Democrats and independents who say they support presumed Democratic Party nominee Barack Obama may not be giving a fully honest answer, at least based on their responses to broader questions about race. "This election is exceptionally tricky," he says.
It should come as no surprise that people lie to pollsters in order to look god, to project the image of themselves to a stranger that they want the stranger to believe, rather than what one would consider the absolute truth.
This is one reason I tend to think that polls are inflating Obama-positive results by approximately 2%-3%. This may or may not have enough power to effect the election results and result in a John McCain presidency.
When McCain Attacks!
It looks as though another one of Senator McCain's recent attacks has landed on target. McCain and his people know that high gasoline prices have hurt the voter where the pain is most palpable, the wallet. So McCain proposed the apparent quick fix-start of drilling off previously off-limits offshore sites.
There was no mention of the fact that the United States does not have enough refinery capacity to handle more oil , nor was there any mention that any new oil that might result from offshore drilling won't be available for a minimum of ten years, nor was there any mention that no credible source believes that offshore drilling will discover any significant new sources of crude.
But apparently the voters think that drilling is a nifty idea and that left Obama looking like former California Governor Jerry Brown, who earned the nickname "Governor Moonbeam" for his early advocacy of environmental issues. Obama could not be seen as favoring environmentally enlightened long-term energy policies over the well-being of Novembers lever pullers.
So this week Obama pulled back from his own stated positions by saying, well, sure, maybe we should drill offshore. From the New York Times:
Obama, who had a long history of opposition to off-shore drilling now looks like a political flip-flopper.
Obviously, McCain drew blood and Obama moved to reposition himself. How will this stand with the Obamaniacs? (And what about "Obama girl? Where does she stand? Or live?")? Now that Obama has the nomination wrapped up, he inevitably will move from the left to try to capture the political center. Will his left-leaning core follow him to the center or will they engage in their usual snit when they perceive a lack of political purity? The leftists certainly will stick with Obama as there are no alternatives available to them, unless Ralph Nader rises from the dead, and we know what Nader did to Al Gore in 2000.
At this point, McCain has landed two punches, one from the policy flank and one from the race flank, that have forced Obama into the position of responding to McCain's message, rather than emphasizing his own.
Obama has to decide whether his better course of action is to get down in the dirt and respond to these attacks or to take the political high road and come off looking like the elitist pansy that McCain is trying to paint him. Either course of action has risks for the Democrat.
There was no mention of the fact that the United States does not have enough refinery capacity to handle more oil , nor was there any mention that any new oil that might result from offshore drilling won't be available for a minimum of ten years, nor was there any mention that no credible source believes that offshore drilling will discover any significant new sources of crude.
But apparently the voters think that drilling is a nifty idea and that left Obama looking like former California Governor Jerry Brown, who earned the nickname "Governor Moonbeam" for his early advocacy of environmental issues. Obama could not be seen as favoring environmentally enlightened long-term energy policies over the well-being of Novembers lever pullers.
So this week Obama pulled back from his own stated positions by saying, well, sure, maybe we should drill offshore. From the New York Times:
Senator Barack Obama said Saturday that he would reluctantly consider accepting some new offshore oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico in exchange for stripping oil companies of tax breaks and extending several tax credits to spur the search for alternative fuels.
At the same time, Senate Republicans appear to have dropped their insistence on opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.
Mr. Obama has until now opposed any expansion of lands for offshore drilling. But in a news conference here, he noted that there had been “very constructive” talks between Senate Republicans and Democrats on this issue in recent days, applauding a plan unveiled by a group of Republican and Democratic senators to permit drilling while supporting an effort to convert most vehicles to using alternative fuels in 20 years.
Obama, who had a long history of opposition to off-shore drilling now looks like a political flip-flopper.
Obviously, McCain drew blood and Obama moved to reposition himself. How will this stand with the Obamaniacs? (And what about "Obama girl? Where does she stand? Or live?")? Now that Obama has the nomination wrapped up, he inevitably will move from the left to try to capture the political center. Will his left-leaning core follow him to the center or will they engage in their usual snit when they perceive a lack of political purity? The leftists certainly will stick with Obama as there are no alternatives available to them, unless Ralph Nader rises from the dead, and we know what Nader did to Al Gore in 2000.
At this point, McCain has landed two punches, one from the policy flank and one from the race flank, that have forced Obama into the position of responding to McCain's message, rather than emphasizing his own.
Obama has to decide whether his better course of action is to get down in the dirt and respond to these attacks or to take the political high road and come off looking like the elitist pansy that McCain is trying to paint him. Either course of action has risks for the Democrat.
Testi-lying- A True Story
A police officer told me about a burglar that he had collared, rightfully, he believed, for a string of burglaries. The officer went on to say that this burglar had practiced his chosen craft in a certain section of Brooklyn by using a pry bar to open various windows to allow him unfettered entry into various apartment. Part of the evidence collected included the scratch marks made by the pry bar against the window sills. The interesting part was that the scratch marks could only have been made by special tool made for and used by the New York Telephone Company.
The problem for our officer was that the arrested miscreant did not have this special tool on his possession when he was arrested. So the officer stole a similar pry bar from a telephone company truck , and presented it to prosecutors as belonging to the burglar. The D.A's office asked no questions. The cop got his conviction.
The problem for our officer was that the arrested miscreant did not have this special tool on his possession when he was arrested. So the officer stole a similar pry bar from a telephone company truck , and presented it to prosecutors as belonging to the burglar. The D.A's office asked no questions. The cop got his conviction.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Polls and TV
The Votemaster's current tally of various polls (see chart on right) shows Sen. Obama with a significant and winning lead in electoral votes over Sen. McCain - 316 to 209 with 13 ties.
I disagree with the Votemaster counting statistical ties (those states with center colored white) in either camp-a statistical tie consisting of either candidate with a lead of less than twice the margin of error for a poll, usually 3%-4%.
My tally of the Votemaster's data has Obama leading with 244 electoral votes, McCain with 165, and 129 in doubt due to statistical ties.
Even though national polls show the race to be statistically tied, or with Obama in a slight lead, the important data are those for the individual states. As we learned in 2000, what matters is the electoral vote, not the national popular vote.
Yes, poll watching too closely is an intellectually flaccid endeavor; however, neither candidate has proposed anything recently that is either of national significance or intellectually engaging. Until the Democratic and republican parties have their conventions later this month,and the electorate returns from vacation, expect the campaigns to achieve a degree of stasis for the most part.
How McCain will direct his campaign going forward? Have you seen the television ad comparing Obama, a graduate of Columbia University, Harvard Law, and a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, with the vapid celebrities Paris Hilton and Brittany Spears? And why juxtapose the two blond, white women with the black Barack Obama? It seems too similar to the Republican attacks against Harold Ford in Tennessee on 2006 to be an accident, so chalk up that McCain ad to a blatant appeal to racism. It certainly looks at though McCain is following the lead of Republican muck-meisters Lee Atwater and Karl Rove.
You would think that Senator McCain, who was slimed by the Bush people during the 2000 South Carolina Republican primary with similarly race-based ads would be averse to these tactics. But it looks as though the "maverick" who piloted the "Straight Talk Express" has disappeared for the duration.
I disagree with the Votemaster counting statistical ties (those states with center colored white) in either camp-a statistical tie consisting of either candidate with a lead of less than twice the margin of error for a poll, usually 3%-4%.
My tally of the Votemaster's data has Obama leading with 244 electoral votes, McCain with 165, and 129 in doubt due to statistical ties.
Even though national polls show the race to be statistically tied, or with Obama in a slight lead, the important data are those for the individual states. As we learned in 2000, what matters is the electoral vote, not the national popular vote.
Yes, poll watching too closely is an intellectually flaccid endeavor; however, neither candidate has proposed anything recently that is either of national significance or intellectually engaging. Until the Democratic and republican parties have their conventions later this month,and the electorate returns from vacation, expect the campaigns to achieve a degree of stasis for the most part.
How McCain will direct his campaign going forward? Have you seen the television ad comparing Obama, a graduate of Columbia University, Harvard Law, and a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, with the vapid celebrities Paris Hilton and Brittany Spears? And why juxtapose the two blond, white women with the black Barack Obama? It seems too similar to the Republican attacks against Harold Ford in Tennessee on 2006 to be an accident, so chalk up that McCain ad to a blatant appeal to racism. It certainly looks at though McCain is following the lead of Republican muck-meisters Lee Atwater and Karl Rove.
You would think that Senator McCain, who was slimed by the Bush people during the 2000 South Carolina Republican primary with similarly race-based ads would be averse to these tactics. But it looks as though the "maverick" who piloted the "Straight Talk Express" has disappeared for the duration.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
The Whole Truth and Nothing But- Police, Lies, Truth, and Their Accidental Concurrence
Perhaps you saw the story about the New York City cop who assaulted the bicyclist who was taking part in a mass bike demonstration in Manhattan. Here is a CNN clip in case you missed it:
It seems that the officer involved claimed in his official report that the bicyclist was being operated in a dangerous manner and that he was, in fact the target of a maniac. As Jim Dwyer reports in the New York Times:
Then, there is this second recent example of police stupidity captured on video,
as reported in the the New York Daily News:
You have to ask yourself, How can these cops be so stupid?
I have a great deal of respect for police officers. They have one of society's toughest jobs as each day they confront dangerous situations- domestic disputes, drugs, violence, crime, filth. They handle all of those nasty, smelly, dirty and dangerous situations that polite society refuses to do. And we give them the power and authority to kill on our behalf.
At times, they are our heroes.
But there are other times when they are less than fabled blue knights. As with any group of humans, they have their failures, and when those failures become public they call into question the honesty and integrity of the thin blue line.
Many years ago, I was a student at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, which was and continues to be popular with police officers and police higher officials and well respected in the world of law enforcement. I became friendly with many police officers and they took me into their confidence enough to introduce me to the term, "testi-lying".
I learned that some police officers had their own unique interpretation of the oath they take when testifying to "tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth." Perhaps they thought the "So help me god" part was really a prayer to cover their imminent misdeeds and a plea for absolution.
They shared with me their experiences of manufacturing evidence to put away bad guys. They told me that they would carry a "cold piece", an untraceable gun, that they could drop near someone they shot in order to claim self defense. It seemed the lies were almost the norm, neither condemned nor condoned by either police officials or the prosecuting authorities.
Unfortunately, as evidenced by our two video examples, the police culture continues to provide fertile grounds for misconduct as it is shielded by the Blue Wall of Silence.
While one hopes such conduct occurs only to a minimal degree, in this You Tube-age police will be under more civilian video scrutiny. Lies and cover ups-on the open street will be exposed. Will the unseemly side of police culture change or will it just be driven further underground?
It seems that the officer involved claimed in his official report that the bicyclist was being operated in a dangerous manner and that he was, in fact the target of a maniac. As Jim Dwyer reports in the New York Times:
Around 9:30 on Friday night, a bicyclist pedaling down Seventh Avenue veered to the left, trying to avoid hitting a police officer who was in the middle of the street.
But the officer, Patrick Pogan, took a few quick steps toward the biker, Christopher Long, braced himself and drove his upper body into Mr. Long.
Officer Pogan, an all-star football player in high school, hit Mr. Long as if he were a halfback running along the sidelines, and sent him flying.
As of Tuesday evening, a videotape of the encounter had been viewed about 400,000 times on YouTube. “I can’t explain why it happened,” Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly said on Tuesday. “I have no understanding as to why that would happen.”
...
Later that night, Officer Pogan composed a story of his encounter with Mr. Long. It bore no resemblance to the events seen on the videotape. Based on the sworn complaint, Mr. Long was held for 26 hours on charges of attempted assault and disorderly conduct.
Then, there is this second recent example of police stupidity captured on video,
as reported in the the New York Daily News:
I have a great deal of respect for police officers. They have one of society's toughest jobs as each day they confront dangerous situations- domestic disputes, drugs, violence, crime, filth. They handle all of those nasty, smelly, dirty and dangerous situations that polite society refuses to do. And we give them the power and authority to kill on our behalf.
At times, they are our heroes.
But there are other times when they are less than fabled blue knights. As with any group of humans, they have their failures, and when those failures become public they call into question the honesty and integrity of the thin blue line.
Many years ago, I was a student at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, which was and continues to be popular with police officers and police higher officials and well respected in the world of law enforcement. I became friendly with many police officers and they took me into their confidence enough to introduce me to the term, "testi-lying".
I learned that some police officers had their own unique interpretation of the oath they take when testifying to "tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth." Perhaps they thought the "So help me god" part was really a prayer to cover their imminent misdeeds and a plea for absolution.
They shared with me their experiences of manufacturing evidence to put away bad guys. They told me that they would carry a "cold piece", an untraceable gun, that they could drop near someone they shot in order to claim self defense. It seemed the lies were almost the norm, neither condemned nor condoned by either police officials or the prosecuting authorities.
Unfortunately, as evidenced by our two video examples, the police culture continues to provide fertile grounds for misconduct as it is shielded by the Blue Wall of Silence.
While one hopes such conduct occurs only to a minimal degree, in this You Tube-age police will be under more civilian video scrutiny. Lies and cover ups-on the open street will be exposed. Will the unseemly side of police culture change or will it just be driven further underground?
Monday, July 28, 2008
No Fuel-Comment from Paul
Dear TRM,
Maybe you should be “the Rational Moderate” rather than radical. It seems we are woefully short on “rational” in this country. Or perhaps the pragmatic moderate? Or the radical pragmatic?
Concerning your commentary on the energy crisis, what is coming is nothing short of an industrial revolution in energy. How we get there is another story. The “free market” forces of the right think that method most efficient to achieving energy independence. That it really is the most efficient method of enriching an already incredibly wealthy class of people. The left feels a full-on guvmint style program the answer. Hardly. There are too many individual special interests and agendas on the left for any semblance of efficiency. The war between to two sides promises a prolonged an inefficient process cheered on by OPEC and anyone else with their straw in the oil barrel.
The next president (you don’t think this one will do it, do you?) will have to have vision enough to “take us to the moon”. Kennedy grappled with the Soviets and that was a political win. Some say that this crisis does not have the political impetus to fuel (no pun intended) a revolution in energy. I beg to differ. People think that “Big Oil” is the problem. They forget that 70 percent of the world’s oil is produced by nationalized companies. I think the American people are tired of kowtowing politically to the OPEC countries. They are willing to change the way they live. What we need is leadership.
My belief is a Kennedy “moonshot” or FDR “Manhattan” style program is the answer. It could encompass the positive aspects of both sides politically and allow the oil-types a seat at the table. No program will succeed unless big oil can play. T. Boone Pickens is smart enough to know that. That is why he decided to take it upon himself to just take a seat, invited or not.
The next president should commission a blue ribbon panel of scientists, engineers, industrialists and big oil types and charge them to develop a plan to wean us of foreign oil in 10 years and wean us off of fossil fuel energy altogether in 20. Our approach in doing this will be in several overlapping phases that will get us from point A to point B in the most efficient way. How we use energy and where we use it must be addressed. Heating and lighting our homes, large and small transportation (cars, trucks, airplanes), manufacturing, and the needs of municipalities are just a sample of the types considered. Boone Pickens recognizes the “geography of energy” where wind in the middle states and sun in the southwest are logical answers to electrical needs.
We went to the moon starting with the small step of a 12-minute sub-orbital flight crewed by Alan Sheppard. Men envisioned the steps they would have to master to get to the moon and back…and then we did them. Getting to fuel cell cars will require cheap, renewable, non-carbon producing electricity (solar, wind, geothermal, tidal). Getting to mass biofuels for aircraft, biodiesel-electric trains, and biodiesel shipping trucks, ocean shipping and smaller boats will require advancements in switchgrass and algae biofarms. But that is a way off. It’s the last step. Until then, ALL energy sources to get us off foreign oil must be considered. Namely, offshore drilling, clean coal shale (Colorado), drilling for new reserves in the Dakotas and Montana and nuclear. This first step is a necessary compromise. This would stem the wealth transfer of the US to the OPEC countries and place investment back in the US where it belongs. This unpalatable first step would be done with the understanding that all US drilling and fossil fuel production would end in 30 years and all nuclear plants decommissioned in 40 years when the renewable conversion is complete.
We have the technology. We need the national will and political leadership to accomplish this.
Paul-
Thanks for your comments. In this age of the sound bite and issue-free campaigning, a rational and reasoned discussion of the issues is "radical". Invite your friends to join the fun here.
TRM
Maybe you should be “the Rational Moderate” rather than radical. It seems we are woefully short on “rational” in this country. Or perhaps the pragmatic moderate? Or the radical pragmatic?
Concerning your commentary on the energy crisis, what is coming is nothing short of an industrial revolution in energy. How we get there is another story. The “free market” forces of the right think that method most efficient to achieving energy independence. That it really is the most efficient method of enriching an already incredibly wealthy class of people. The left feels a full-on guvmint style program the answer. Hardly. There are too many individual special interests and agendas on the left for any semblance of efficiency. The war between to two sides promises a prolonged an inefficient process cheered on by OPEC and anyone else with their straw in the oil barrel.
The next president (you don’t think this one will do it, do you?) will have to have vision enough to “take us to the moon”. Kennedy grappled with the Soviets and that was a political win. Some say that this crisis does not have the political impetus to fuel (no pun intended) a revolution in energy. I beg to differ. People think that “Big Oil” is the problem. They forget that 70 percent of the world’s oil is produced by nationalized companies. I think the American people are tired of kowtowing politically to the OPEC countries. They are willing to change the way they live. What we need is leadership.
My belief is a Kennedy “moonshot” or FDR “Manhattan” style program is the answer. It could encompass the positive aspects of both sides politically and allow the oil-types a seat at the table. No program will succeed unless big oil can play. T. Boone Pickens is smart enough to know that. That is why he decided to take it upon himself to just take a seat, invited or not.
The next president should commission a blue ribbon panel of scientists, engineers, industrialists and big oil types and charge them to develop a plan to wean us of foreign oil in 10 years and wean us off of fossil fuel energy altogether in 20. Our approach in doing this will be in several overlapping phases that will get us from point A to point B in the most efficient way. How we use energy and where we use it must be addressed. Heating and lighting our homes, large and small transportation (cars, trucks, airplanes), manufacturing, and the needs of municipalities are just a sample of the types considered. Boone Pickens recognizes the “geography of energy” where wind in the middle states and sun in the southwest are logical answers to electrical needs.
We went to the moon starting with the small step of a 12-minute sub-orbital flight crewed by Alan Sheppard. Men envisioned the steps they would have to master to get to the moon and back…and then we did them. Getting to fuel cell cars will require cheap, renewable, non-carbon producing electricity (solar, wind, geothermal, tidal). Getting to mass biofuels for aircraft, biodiesel-electric trains, and biodiesel shipping trucks, ocean shipping and smaller boats will require advancements in switchgrass and algae biofarms. But that is a way off. It’s the last step. Until then, ALL energy sources to get us off foreign oil must be considered. Namely, offshore drilling, clean coal shale (Colorado), drilling for new reserves in the Dakotas and Montana and nuclear. This first step is a necessary compromise. This would stem the wealth transfer of the US to the OPEC countries and place investment back in the US where it belongs. This unpalatable first step would be done with the understanding that all US drilling and fossil fuel production would end in 30 years and all nuclear plants decommissioned in 40 years when the renewable conversion is complete.
We have the technology. We need the national will and political leadership to accomplish this.
Paul-
Thanks for your comments. In this age of the sound bite and issue-free campaigning, a rational and reasoned discussion of the issues is "radical". Invite your friends to join the fun here.
TRM
No Fuel- Comment by Anonymous
I'm no engineer, but given that we've been on the kick of oxidizing carbon-based fuels of all kinds for the entire history of mankind (wood, coal, petroleum, natural gas, methane, etc.), as a way to perpetuate our species and ensure some standard of living, it's going to be a major paradigm shift to find some other way to meet our energy needs in the future while preserving the environment. Finding some way to enhance the electric power grid and distribute power will be one challenge, but finding methods of generating the capacity necessary to operate that grid will be yet another.
Wind offers one avenue, but I also think that greater use of solar technology is necessary as well. For that matter, geothermal and hydroelectric potential (both ocean and river current) is also ripe for further exploration. That any of these options are yet not economically feasible should be no bar to some sort of Government subidies or grants. Of course, the current occupants will likely not easily abandon their own dependence on foreign petroleum.
Wind offers one avenue, but I also think that greater use of solar technology is necessary as well. For that matter, geothermal and hydroelectric potential (both ocean and river current) is also ripe for further exploration. That any of these options are yet not economically feasible should be no bar to some sort of Government subidies or grants. Of course, the current occupants will likely not easily abandon their own dependence on foreign petroleum.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
There's No Fuel Like an Old Fuel
Hydrogen versus Direct Electric
In the new age of gasoline-free automobiles, the ultimate decisions will be made by the automobile companies regarding the power source for our engines. Will they be Hydrogen based fuel cells or rechargeable batteries that hook into your home ac circuit?
It seems that everyone is in love with the idea of the plug-in electric, but I have yet to read an analysis that concerns a basic concept such as where and how will that electricity be generated. It seems that everyone expects electrons to flow out of the house socket as if by wizardry. Those electrons have to come from somewhere, folks, and we have to answers those question soon. Will those electrons come from nuclear plants such as pebble bed reactors? From " clean" coal plants? Natural gas plants? Oil shale fired plants? Wind turbines from the Midwest?
Or will the energy be based on a hydrogen produced and transported by the oil companies who now fuel your car? Can you really believe that Exxon Mobil, Phillips, Conoco, BP, and Shell want to give up their automobile-based profits and turn those dollars over to the electric companies without a fight? Will they allow their distribution and refining facilities to be made as obsolescent as buggy whip and ice factories? Or will they get into the wind turbine and electric business and go head to head with Duke?
The nearly bankrupt general Motors is coming out with the Chevrolet "Volt",ostensibly an electric car, however it comes with a gasoline "range extender" ("engine") to get the car home while simultaneously charging the battery. Good thing, because so far, the batteries on electrics allow only a range of 40 miles, which might be great for in-city errands, but totally unacceptable for taking a decent trip. So what they really are talking about is a $50,000 "station car"."Cheap!" as they used to say on the cover of MAD Magazine.
When you think of it, the hydrogen proponents are living in the same fantasy world as the electric guys. Hydrogen won't be sucked magically out of the ambient air, so where does the hydrogen come from? Here is a posting that you might want to read:
We are in a period of uncertainty about future fuels, and no one will be safe placing one bet on the energy craps table. Despite the bleating of the environmentalists, look for more drilling and more efficient gasoline vehicles to predominate until the industry and market both answer some questions regarding fuel production, distribution and efficiency that have yet to be adequately answered. But is Pickens right?
Any engineers want to weigh in on this? Anyone? Bueller?
In the new age of gasoline-free automobiles, the ultimate decisions will be made by the automobile companies regarding the power source for our engines. Will they be Hydrogen based fuel cells or rechargeable batteries that hook into your home ac circuit?
It seems that everyone is in love with the idea of the plug-in electric, but I have yet to read an analysis that concerns a basic concept such as where and how will that electricity be generated. It seems that everyone expects electrons to flow out of the house socket as if by wizardry. Those electrons have to come from somewhere, folks, and we have to answers those question soon. Will those electrons come from nuclear plants such as pebble bed reactors? From " clean" coal plants? Natural gas plants? Oil shale fired plants? Wind turbines from the Midwest?
Or will the energy be based on a hydrogen produced and transported by the oil companies who now fuel your car? Can you really believe that Exxon Mobil, Phillips, Conoco, BP, and Shell want to give up their automobile-based profits and turn those dollars over to the electric companies without a fight? Will they allow their distribution and refining facilities to be made as obsolescent as buggy whip and ice factories? Or will they get into the wind turbine and electric business and go head to head with Duke?
The nearly bankrupt general Motors is coming out with the Chevrolet "Volt",ostensibly an electric car, however it comes with a gasoline "range extender" ("engine") to get the car home while simultaneously charging the battery. Good thing, because so far, the batteries on electrics allow only a range of 40 miles, which might be great for in-city errands, but totally unacceptable for taking a decent trip. So what they really are talking about is a $50,000 "station car"."Cheap!" as they used to say on the cover of MAD Magazine.
When you think of it, the hydrogen proponents are living in the same fantasy world as the electric guys. Hydrogen won't be sucked magically out of the ambient air, so where does the hydrogen come from? Here is a posting that you might want to read:
The mass media's fascination with fuel-cell powered cars is understandable. The promise of "clean, cheap energy from water" has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? Unfortunately, it makes better fiction than reality. Hydrogen-powered cars just emit their pollution elsewhere.Even though Honda is beginning to produce a hydrogen fuel cell automobile, the FCX they still have not answered the hydrogen production question. Furthermore, hydrogen merely displaces the environmental impact from the end user to the fuel producer for no net environmental gain
In any chemical reaction like the one that powers your car, energy must be conserved; meaning that the energy must "come from" somewhere. So where does the hydrogen "fuel" for a fuel-cell car come from? Two possible sources are
* Water - plentiful and everywhere.
* & Methane - while the U.S. has some methane reserves, we would need to import it from "non-friendlies" in order to meet current (and future) demand.
Let's look at water. First of all, the hydrogen molecules in water are strongly bound to oxygen. Therefore, it takes (substantial) energy to split water into useful hydrogen (used by the fuel cell) and oxygen molecules. The majority of that energy - in America - is derived from coal power. If you take into account that a significant minority of the power grid in America is also nuclear, we have traded a clean-burning gasoline engine for nuclear and coal powered fuel-cells. Since so-called "greens" would never advocate more nuclear power - even though that would be the best solution - we can't and won't power fuel-cell cars from water-derived hydrogen.
If, instead, we power the car by reducing methane (CH4), then we have merely traded one energy source (gasoline) for another (methane) that is far less efficient -- and therefore produces MORE carbon-dioxide per mile traveled than gasoline!
Critics also point out that hydrogen is costly to produce and the most common way to produce hydrogen is still from fossil fuels.I am sure that you have seen those television advertisements with oilman T.Boone Pickens in which he extols the need to develop the wind power present in the Mid-West. Certainly, that area of the country has a lot of potential energy, as the song, "Oklahoma", says, "where the wind comes sweeping down the plains". While Mr. Pickens seems willing to put up a lot of his money to develop this potential, the question of distribution seems not to to be addressed. Does the continental United States electric grid have the capacity to act as an efficient distributor of the electricity generated by wind power, or will the government have to spend billions of dollars in system upgrades and if so, is it worth the expense? An engineer I was speaking with several weeks ago told me that the electric grid system currently operates with a 95% degree of efficiency and the only question that needs to be answered is that of capacity.
Analysis of the environmental impact of different fuel technologies has shown that the overall carbon dioxide emissions from hydrogen powered cars can be higher than that from petrol or diesel-powered vehicles.
We are in a period of uncertainty about future fuels, and no one will be safe placing one bet on the energy craps table. Despite the bleating of the environmentalists, look for more drilling and more efficient gasoline vehicles to predominate until the industry and market both answer some questions regarding fuel production, distribution and efficiency that have yet to be adequately answered. But is Pickens right?
Any engineers want to weigh in on this? Anyone? Bueller?
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Pick Up the Phone, Brent Rinehart, the 21st Century is Calling
This would be a total hoot if it weren't real. It is a local election in Oklahoma, and yes, it is a comic book (very telling!). But the folks there should be more than slightly embarrassed about the whole thing.Right-winger Oklahoma County Commissioner Brent Rinehart is running for re-election and he has taken dead-aim at his opponents, which basically includes everyone. He seems to have some powerful, but non-voting opponents!
...
If I can get a copy of this "comic", I will post it immediately.
In one sequence, Satan says: "If I can get the kids to believe homosexuality is normal!”
The angel replies: "Hey Satan, not with Brent around you won't!”
Rinehart said he doesn't think the depiction is inappropriate and that he is proud of the comic.
"The history of my office is that I do expose the homosexual agenda, and that it does exist in the state of Oklahoma, and my history also would show that I am very much opposed to the homosexual agenda,” Rinehart said.
...
Rinehart acknowledged that the comic is edgy at times, but said it explains important issues in a light-hearted way that his constituents will enjoy.
"It makes it interesting and something that people will actually look at and understand,” Rinehart said.
Toga-wearing gays, political figures, trench coat-clad henchmen, concerned residents and Rinehart round out the comic's cast.
"This is one of the strangest things I've ever seen,” said Keith Gaddie, a political science professor at the University of Oklahoma. "I've never seen a comic book with the phrase ‘anal sodomy' in it before. That was a new one for me.”
If I can get a copy of this "comic", I will post it immediately.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
More "Disconnect"
The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, here, buttresses my point about the disconnect between the publics feelings about the Republicans in general and John McCain, with the poll showing a statistical tie in preferences for McCain's and Obama's plans for Iraq.
Previous polls showed a preference for withdrawal from Iraq sooner rather than later, a position closer to Obama's stated goal.
I think people are really confused about Iraq. They don't want to leave precipitously if there is a chance that we are on the right road. They don't want to stay if we are in a no win situation. And they don't believe any of the information that both parties are feeding them.
Still, after five years of combat and 4,000 deaths in Iraq, this poll spells trouble for Obama.
Previous polls showed a preference for withdrawal from Iraq sooner rather than later, a position closer to Obama's stated goal.
I think people are really confused about Iraq. They don't want to leave precipitously if there is a chance that we are on the right road. They don't want to stay if we are in a no win situation. And they don't believe any of the information that both parties are feeding them.
Still, after five years of combat and 4,000 deaths in Iraq, this poll spells trouble for Obama.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
A READER COMMENTS on FLIGHTS of FANCY
A Reader writes:
This letter was something unique in my experience. I have never seen an entire industry band together and canvas their customers looking for assistance. These are the same guys who keep providing me less and less on every flight, but I too have noted the record profits being posted by the oil and energy companies. I recognize the market forces that drive prices to these levels, but I feel a gentle upward slope is more natural and beneficial to all.
While I worry about the short term damage to our economy brought about by oil prices, when combined with the mortgage meltdown it is exponentially more frightening. We are looking at long road back to an energetic and robust economy that equals (10 years?) the economy of just one year ago. The DOW has lost 28% of its total value in the past year! There is more bad news to come.
Here is Obama's chance to be a 2nd FDR and oversee our recovery from what will become known as "The Great Depression 2.0". He will rise above partisanship, slash our incredibly bloated government bureaucracy (dismantling the huge worthless sections of DHS), organize a new WPA, and become the most beloved President of the 21st century.
I welcome all of the research and development to come that these high oil prices will bring about. This prolonged situation will finally lead to relief from our dependence on oil and will bring renewable energy sources to primacy. In fact, it may be this that leads us out from the economic doldrums.
Reader,
I agree that we are on the edge of disaster but I don't think we will go over the precipice. Yes, we are in a bear market but that is not unheard of.
What scares me is that we truly are at the end of the age of oil. Despite all of the R&D going on in the field of energy, the transition to a new energy source will be long and painful. Therefore, the climb out will have to account for that change in addition to the economic chaos caused by the sub-prime mortgage disaster. A couple of decades for recovery? How about a century?
Your hope for Obama is far more sanguine than mine (If he gets elected, and I still think that is a big "if"). A Roosevelt comes along only once in history, and even he made his mistakes and was mired in political battles with the Republicans and the Supreme Court. Despite Roosevelt's herculean efforts, the depression didn't end until the beginning of World War 2, when industry shook off the cobwebs and geared up to become "the arsenal of democracy".
And don't look for a Democrat to drastically cut the size of government.
Thanks for writing!
TRM
This letter was something unique in my experience. I have never seen an entire industry band together and canvas their customers looking for assistance. These are the same guys who keep providing me less and less on every flight, but I too have noted the record profits being posted by the oil and energy companies. I recognize the market forces that drive prices to these levels, but I feel a gentle upward slope is more natural and beneficial to all.
While I worry about the short term damage to our economy brought about by oil prices, when combined with the mortgage meltdown it is exponentially more frightening. We are looking at long road back to an energetic and robust economy that equals (10 years?) the economy of just one year ago. The DOW has lost 28% of its total value in the past year! There is more bad news to come.
Here is Obama's chance to be a 2nd FDR and oversee our recovery from what will become known as "The Great Depression 2.0". He will rise above partisanship, slash our incredibly bloated government bureaucracy (dismantling the huge worthless sections of DHS), organize a new WPA, and become the most beloved President of the 21st century.
I welcome all of the research and development to come that these high oil prices will bring about. This prolonged situation will finally lead to relief from our dependence on oil and will bring renewable energy sources to primacy. In fact, it may be this that leads us out from the economic doldrums.
Reader,
I agree that we are on the edge of disaster but I don't think we will go over the precipice. Yes, we are in a bear market but that is not unheard of.
What scares me is that we truly are at the end of the age of oil. Despite all of the R&D going on in the field of energy, the transition to a new energy source will be long and painful. Therefore, the climb out will have to account for that change in addition to the economic chaos caused by the sub-prime mortgage disaster. A couple of decades for recovery? How about a century?
Your hope for Obama is far more sanguine than mine (If he gets elected, and I still think that is a big "if"). A Roosevelt comes along only once in history, and even he made his mistakes and was mired in political battles with the Republicans and the Supreme Court. Despite Roosevelt's herculean efforts, the depression didn't end until the beginning of World War 2, when industry shook off the cobwebs and geared up to become "the arsenal of democracy".
And don't look for a Democrat to drastically cut the size of government.
Thanks for writing!
TRM
DISCONNECT
With all polls showing the popularity of the President, the Republicans, and Congress at almost all-time lows this new poll from Newsweek, which shows a statistical tie between Obama and McCain spells big trouble for the Democrats.
The public should be heaping scorn upon failed Republican policies and candidates. It should be a landslide year for the Democrats and Obama should be way ahead, yet he isn't. What happened to those polls just a week ago which showed the Democrat with a 15 percentage point lead over the Republican?
I think the overriding emotion that voters are feeling right now is fear.
Fear of war in the middle east, where nightly TV news shows Iran firing missiles.
Fear of high prices, with gas pumps showing numbers that once existed only on pocket calculators.
Fear of no oil, where even oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens has his own television commercials that says the age of oil is over.
Fear of food shortages, where Brits are asked to adopt the measures that got them through the shortages of World War 2.
Fear of financial disaster, where bank failures are no longer ancient stories of the 1930s depression.
FEAR.
Fear plays into the hands of the Republicans, long thought to be the "Daddy" party, the party of strength, as opposed to the "let's all play nice together and share the toys" "Mommy" Democrats. These aren't the times to gather down by the river and sing "Kumbaya".
So while Democrats may at an advantage in local races and with the pocketbook money issues such as health care, I think the public really wants a guy at the top who wields a big stick and knows how to use it.
Events leading up to the November election will have an out sized influence on the voters.
Make no mistake about it, this is going to be a very, very, tight race.
The public should be heaping scorn upon failed Republican policies and candidates. It should be a landslide year for the Democrats and Obama should be way ahead, yet he isn't. What happened to those polls just a week ago which showed the Democrat with a 15 percentage point lead over the Republican?
I think the overriding emotion that voters are feeling right now is fear.
Fear of war in the middle east, where nightly TV news shows Iran firing missiles.
Fear of high prices, with gas pumps showing numbers that once existed only on pocket calculators.
Fear of no oil, where even oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens has his own television commercials that says the age of oil is over.
Fear of food shortages, where Brits are asked to adopt the measures that got them through the shortages of World War 2.
Fear of financial disaster, where bank failures are no longer ancient stories of the 1930s depression.
FEAR.
Fear plays into the hands of the Republicans, long thought to be the "Daddy" party, the party of strength, as opposed to the "let's all play nice together and share the toys" "Mommy" Democrats. These aren't the times to gather down by the river and sing "Kumbaya".
So while Democrats may at an advantage in local races and with the pocketbook money issues such as health care, I think the public really wants a guy at the top who wields a big stick and knows how to use it.
Events leading up to the November election will have an out sized influence on the voters.
Make no mistake about it, this is going to be a very, very, tight race.
FLIGHTS of FANCY
A valued and loyal reader of this Blog (and believe me, every reader is valued, and if you come back more than once, you definitely are loyal!) asked me to comment on a letter than recently was e-mailed by all the major airlines to their frequent flier customers. I was just about to settle down to consider a nice paper from MIT on Modular Pebble Bed Reactors, but a request from a loyal reader does not go unheeded here at TRM.
Let's admit right off the bat that the airlines are easy targets. Warren Buffett said that, over the course of its history, if you sum up all the books, no one has ever made a dime in the airline industry. Comedian Alan King used to excoriate the industry with regularity on the old Ed Sullivan Show, and that was in the days when flying was seen as the height of privilege and elegance.
So, I'll just print their letter and insert comments as appropriate. The letter is reproduced unedited except for the name of the recipient, and in full at the end of my posting. My comments are in bold.
Dear (Customer Name),
Last week, crude oil hit an all-time high of $146, and the skyrocketing cost of fuel is impacting our customers, our employees, the communities we serve, and the economy as a whole. (Nothing to argue about here. All are statements of fact.)United, and the majority of other major U.S. airlines, are asking our most loyal customers to join us in pushing for legislation to add more transparency and disclosure in the oil markets.(Let's see. Are these the same loyal customers who you want to rip off with unreasonable fees and a fare structure that is closer to a Las Vegas roulette wheel? Have you ever tried to check fares on line? Go to an airline's website and you get a fare. Back out, check another airline, then come back to the first, BOOM , a different fare ((HINT-Clear your cookies before going back to the first web site!)) And these guys are asking for "transparency"?) Please see the attached open letter from the leaders of the U.S. airline industry.
------------------------------------------------------------
An Open letter to All Airline Customers:
------------------------------------------------------------
Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices,(True enough!) but by
pulling together, we can all do something to help now.(CHECK YOUR WALLET!)
For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil
prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain. This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our customers. Since high oil prices are partly (Which part and how much? This is one of those fuzzy, unsupported-by-fact statements that allow the writer to say just about anything.) a response to normal market forces(How about growing industrial needs in China and India; Iran firing off missiles and Israel practicing bombing Iran; Iran producing nuclear material. As they say, "normal market forces", all of which are totally beyond our control.) the nation needs to focus on increased energy supplies and conservation. However,there is another side to this story because normal market
forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly regulated market speculation. (OW! OW! Mr. Kotter! I know I know!)
Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and
then sell it to each other again and again (OH, NO! HOW CRIMINAL!). A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts (Some? Which ones? Don't they have names? Shoddy piece of work, this! And what do others say? How about an increase in demand from Asian markets and general market jitters over the Middle East?
I read an article by Paul Krugman in the NYTIMES on June 27th, in which he stated that the increase of oil tracks the price increase in iron, which is not subject to either Mid East politics or speculative pricing.
Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations to control excessive, largely unchecked market speculation and manipulation. However, over the past
two decades (Just for the record-two decades equal 20 years. We had Republican administrations in 12 of those 20, including the last eight. Where were you guys? Just the facts, ma'am!), these regulatory limits have been weakened or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing these limits, along with several other modest measures, will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound market oversight (Don't you just love it? These guys now want "transparency and sound market oversight." I get the giggles from this!). Together, these reforms will help cool the over-heated oil market and permit the economy to prosper. (I love it. They want MORE REGULATION AS LONG AS THEY ARE PROTECTED. How about this, how about more regulation for the airlines. I figure if you want the King's protection, you have to pay for it. Or how about just nationalizing the whole mess and then bringing some rational rate and route structure to the country? As Warren Buffet said, no one has ever made money in the airline business.)
The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil
markets and solve this growing problem (Translation: SAVE US! For US is YOU!
Let's admit that no one likes the airlines anymore. They have an unfair and unintelligible price structure, bait and switch promotions, and front line staff who do their very best to make sure you have a miserable time. For us coach passengers, the airlines try to cram as many people into the smallest space possible without the slightest interest in providing a modicum of comfort. They engage in poor business practices that annoy their customers and they charge for every possible amenity that they haven't eliminated entirely, such as checked luggage((Wait a second!! Checked luggage is not an amenity when the airline loses it!)). How about some honesty, like, "Hey, Folks, We are losing our shirt with these rising fuel prices so we need to raise our base fare, but we won't nickel and dime you to death. And, no, we won't install pay toilets!" How about that?
Nah! Honesty will NEVER work!).
We need your help. Get more information and contact
Congress by visiting StopOilSpeculationNow.com.
http://www.unitedoffers.com/600-1sape/101395/235989/6476e6b9e8423ab2c1287f8e02bf5301
(Fun prediction. Between the Scylla and Charybdis of security needs and fuel prices your flying experience will soon look like this. You arrive at the airport and are lead to a small cubicle where you will strip and then don a one-use paper "flying suit", the better to prevent you from carrying on contraband. You will then be thoroughly sedated and placed into a small coffin-like pallet. Your pallet, will be stacked along with those of your fellow travelers in a cargo-like transport airplane. When you arrive at your destination, you will be given a stimulant and your clothes will be returned.
No security problems. No amenities required. No cabin staff needed.You are now cargo. Thank you for flying with us.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dear (Customer Name),
Last week, crude oil hit an all-time high of $146, and the
skyrocketing cost of fuel is impacting our customers, our
employees, the communities we serve, and the economy as a
whole. United, and the majority of other major U.S.
airlines, are asking our most loyal customers to join us in
pushing for legislation to add more transparency and
disclosure in the oil markets. Please see the attached open
letter from the leaders of the U.S. airline industry.
------------------------------------------------------------
An Open letter to All Airline Customers:
------------------------------------------------------------
Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn
because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices, but by
pulling together, we can all do something to help now.
For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of
lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both
large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil
prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain.
This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking
the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our
customers. Since high oil prices are partly a response to
normal market forces, the nation needs to focus on
increased energy supplies and conservation. However,
there is another side to this story because normal market
forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly
regulated market speculation.
Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were
purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with
no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil
speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures
contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that
are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and
then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of
oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and
used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers
pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate
that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per
barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.
Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations
to control excessive, largely unchecked market
speculation and manipulation. However, over the past
two decades, these regulatory limits have been weakened
or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing
these limits, along with several other modest measures,
will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound
market oversight. Together, these reforms will help
cool the over-heated oil market and permit the
economy to prosper.
The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil
markets and solve this growing problem.
We need your help. Get more information and contact
Congress by visiting StopOilSpeculationNow.com.
http://www.unitedoffers.com/600-1sape/101395/235989/6476e6b9e8423ab2c1287f8e02bf5301
Robert Fornaro
Chairman, President and CEO
AirTran Airways
Bill Ayer
Chairman, President and CEO
Alaska Airlines, Inc.
Gerard J. Arpey
Chairman, President and CEO
American Airlines, Inc.
Lawrence W. Kellner
Chairman and CEO
Continental Airlines, Inc.
Richard Anderson
CEO
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
Mark B. Dunkerley
President and CEO
Hawaiian Airlines, Inc.
Dave Barger
CEO
JetBlue Airways Corporation
Timothy E. Hoeksema
Chairman, President and CEO
Midwest Airlines
Douglas M. Steenland
President and CEO
Northwest Airlines, Inc.
Gary Kelly
Chairman and CEO
Southwest Airlines Co.
Glenn F. Tilton
Chairman, President and CEO
United Airlines, Inc.
Douglas Parker
Chairman and CEO
US Airways Group, Inc.
Let's admit right off the bat that the airlines are easy targets. Warren Buffett said that, over the course of its history, if you sum up all the books, no one has ever made a dime in the airline industry. Comedian Alan King used to excoriate the industry with regularity on the old Ed Sullivan Show, and that was in the days when flying was seen as the height of privilege and elegance.
So, I'll just print their letter and insert comments as appropriate. The letter is reproduced unedited except for the name of the recipient, and in full at the end of my posting. My comments are in bold.
Dear (Customer Name),
Last week, crude oil hit an all-time high of $146, and the skyrocketing cost of fuel is impacting our customers, our employees, the communities we serve, and the economy as a whole. (Nothing to argue about here. All are statements of fact.)United, and the majority of other major U.S. airlines, are asking our most loyal customers to join us in pushing for legislation to add more transparency and disclosure in the oil markets.(Let's see. Are these the same loyal customers who you want to rip off with unreasonable fees and a fare structure that is closer to a Las Vegas roulette wheel? Have you ever tried to check fares on line? Go to an airline's website and you get a fare. Back out, check another airline, then come back to the first, BOOM , a different fare ((HINT-Clear your cookies before going back to the first web site!)) And these guys are asking for "transparency"?) Please see the attached open letter from the leaders of the U.S. airline industry.
------------------------------------------------------------
An Open letter to All Airline Customers:
------------------------------------------------------------
Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices,(True enough!) but by
pulling together, we can all do something to help now.
For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil
prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain. This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our customers. Since high oil prices are partly (Which part and how much? This is one of those fuzzy, unsupported-by-fact statements that allow the writer to say just about anything.) a response to normal market forces
forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly regulated market speculation. (OW! OW! Mr. Kotter! I know I know!)
Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and
then sell it to each other again and again (OH, NO! HOW CRIMINAL!). A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts (Some? Which ones? Don't they have names? Shoddy piece of work, this! And what do others say? How about an increase in demand from Asian markets and general market jitters over the Middle East?
I read an article by Paul Krugman in the NYTIMES on June 27th, in which he stated that the increase of oil tracks the price increase in iron, which is not subject to either Mid East politics or speculative pricing.
...iron ore isn’t traded on a global exchange; its price is set in direct deals between producers and consumers. So there’s no easy way to speculate on ore prices. Yet the price of iron ore, like that of oil, has surged over the past year. In particular, the price Chinese steel makers pay to Australian mines has just jumped 96 percent. This suggests that growing demand from emerging economies, not speculation, is the real story behind rising prices of raw materials, oil included.)estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs. (So it is OK for you guys to force us to take part in your speculative game of airline ticket prices, but it is not OK for you to take part in a world-wide speculative market. So which part of "world-wide speculative market" did you not understand?)
Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations to control excessive, largely unchecked market speculation and manipulation. However, over the past
two decades (Just for the record-two decades equal 20 years. We had Republican administrations in 12 of those 20, including the last eight. Where were you guys? Just the facts, ma'am!), these regulatory limits have been weakened or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing these limits, along with several other modest measures, will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound market oversight (Don't you just love it? These guys now want "transparency and sound market oversight." I get the giggles from this!). Together, these reforms will help cool the over-heated oil market and permit the economy to prosper. (I love it. They want MORE REGULATION AS LONG AS THEY ARE PROTECTED. How about this, how about more regulation for the airlines. I figure if you want the King's protection, you have to pay for it. Or how about just nationalizing the whole mess and then bringing some rational rate and route structure to the country? As Warren Buffet said, no one has ever made money in the airline business.)
The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil
markets and solve this growing problem (Translation: SAVE US! For US is YOU!
Let's admit that no one likes the airlines anymore. They have an unfair and unintelligible price structure, bait and switch promotions, and front line staff who do their very best to make sure you have a miserable time. For us coach passengers, the airlines try to cram as many people into the smallest space possible without the slightest interest in providing a modicum of comfort. They engage in poor business practices that annoy their customers and they charge for every possible amenity that they haven't eliminated entirely, such as checked luggage((Wait a second!! Checked luggage is not an amenity when the airline loses it!)). How about some honesty, like, "Hey, Folks, We are losing our shirt with these rising fuel prices so we need to raise our base fare, but we won't nickel and dime you to death. And, no, we won't install pay toilets!" How about that?
Nah! Honesty will NEVER work!).
We need your help. Get more information and contact
Congress by visiting StopOilSpeculationNow.com.
http://www.unitedoffers.com/600-1sape/101395/235989/6476e6b9e8423ab2c1287f8e02bf5301
(Fun prediction. Between the Scylla and Charybdis of security needs and fuel prices your flying experience will soon look like this. You arrive at the airport and are lead to a small cubicle where you will strip and then don a one-use paper "flying suit", the better to prevent you from carrying on contraband. You will then be thoroughly sedated and placed into a small coffin-like pallet. Your pallet, will be stacked along with those of your fellow travelers in a cargo-like transport airplane. When you arrive at your destination, you will be given a stimulant and your clothes will be returned.
No security problems. No amenities required. No cabin staff needed.You are now cargo. Thank you for flying with us.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dear (Customer Name),
Last week, crude oil hit an all-time high of $146, and the
skyrocketing cost of fuel is impacting our customers, our
employees, the communities we serve, and the economy as a
whole. United, and the majority of other major U.S.
airlines, are asking our most loyal customers to join us in
pushing for legislation to add more transparency and
disclosure in the oil markets. Please see the attached open
letter from the leaders of the U.S. airline industry.
------------------------------------------------------------
An Open letter to All Airline Customers:
------------------------------------------------------------
Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn
because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices, but by
pulling together, we can all do something to help now.
For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of
lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both
large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil
prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain.
This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking
the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our
customers. Since high oil prices are partly a response to
normal market forces, the nation needs to focus on
increased energy supplies and conservation. However,
there is another side to this story because normal market
forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly
regulated market speculation.
Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were
purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with
no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil
speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures
contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that
are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and
then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of
oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and
used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers
pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate
that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per
barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.
Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations
to control excessive, largely unchecked market
speculation and manipulation. However, over the past
two decades, these regulatory limits have been weakened
or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing
these limits, along with several other modest measures,
will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound
market oversight. Together, these reforms will help
cool the over-heated oil market and permit the
economy to prosper.
The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil
markets and solve this growing problem.
We need your help. Get more information and contact
Congress by visiting StopOilSpeculationNow.com.
http://www.unitedoffers.com/600-1sape/101395/235989/6476e6b9e8423ab2c1287f8e02bf5301
Robert Fornaro
Chairman, President and CEO
AirTran Airways
Bill Ayer
Chairman, President and CEO
Alaska Airlines, Inc.
Gerard J. Arpey
Chairman, President and CEO
American Airlines, Inc.
Lawrence W. Kellner
Chairman and CEO
Continental Airlines, Inc.
Richard Anderson
CEO
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
Mark B. Dunkerley
President and CEO
Hawaiian Airlines, Inc.
Dave Barger
CEO
JetBlue Airways Corporation
Timothy E. Hoeksema
Chairman, President and CEO
Midwest Airlines
Douglas M. Steenland
President and CEO
Northwest Airlines, Inc.
Gary Kelly
Chairman and CEO
Southwest Airlines Co.
Glenn F. Tilton
Chairman, President and CEO
United Airlines, Inc.
Douglas Parker
Chairman and CEO
US Airways Group, Inc.
Buried in the Paper
From Michael Powell's "Reporter's Notebook" deep within today's New York Times:
Policy, Up Close
Early Tuesday, in Powder Springs, Ga., policy takes flesh before the candidate’s eyes.
Jeana Brown raises her arm in a forest of outstretched hands in the bleachers at the high school and Mr. Obama points to her — “Me?!” “Yes, you” — and voice quaking, Ms. Brown says:
“I am one of your small contributors — $5 actually,” she says.
She wants to tell Mr. Obama, who is talking about the 30 percent increase in the number of Americans who have filed for bankruptcy, about her trailer.
She is 50 and her husband, James, is 48, and they worked and snipped coupons and saved for five years to afford their double-wide trailer. Their credit report had the usual nicks and dents, and so they took a 9.25 percent interest rate on their loan. They relied on their broker’s promise “that if we were good and made our payments, we could refinance at a better rate after a year.”
A year later, Ms. Brown walked back in. The broker told her that because their trailer did not have a concrete foundation — which costs thousands more dollars than they had — she and her husband could not refinance.
A job disappeared and they faced foreclosure. The couple doubled up on interest payments, from $670 to $1,378 per month. They cut off Internet and cable service and held three yard sales — everything must go!
They saved their home.
Now her husband drives a truck six weeks at a stretch and she works two jobs. Ms. Brown’s chest heaves, her voice a quivering reed.
“I tell you, I’m not sure how we keep doing this,” she says.
Obama shakes his head. The gymnasium had gone silent.
“Look,” he says, “Jeana is an example of America. Someone who is working hard, who saved, doing all the right things and then gets put into a financial bind primarily because people took advantage of her situation.”
Afterward, Ms. Brown watches him work the rope line. She has brown hair and piercing eyes and hails from coal country; she is proud to describe herself as a white “redneck.”
Her husband, James, is black. When she heard Mr. Obama’s speech on race in Philadelphia, she wrote her check. “I researched him; he’s real,” she says. “I haven’t voted in 32 years but he’s got mine.”
She touches a reporter’s arm; she’s got a question.
“Do you think we’ll be able to save our trailer?”
Monday, July 7, 2008
Democratic Stupidity
If you read this past Sunday's New York Times you would have come across this story on problems the Dems face in getting their big Denver show together.
Now, any big convention can run into problems, so i wasn't too concerned about that. But these items were a perfect example of the type of liberal totalitarianism that will get them into trouble"
...
Caterers are shying away? What about the rest of America? This is true liberal madness
...
...
If the Democrats are what they eat, then heed the words of Mr. Agro (isn't that a great name for a caterer?!):
Now, any big convention can run into problems, so i wasn't too concerned about that. But these items were a perfect example of the type of liberal totalitarianism that will get them into trouble"
With the Denver convention less than two months away, problems range from the serious — upwardly spiraling costs on key contracts still being negotiated — to the mundane, like the reluctance of local caterers to participate because of stringent rules on what delegates will be eating, down to the color of the food(emphasis TRM).
...
And then there is the food: A 28-page contract requested by Denver organizers that caterers provide food in “at least three of the following five colors: red, green, yellow, blue/purple and white.” Garnishes could not be counted toward the colors. No fried foods would be allowed. Organic and locally grown foods were mandated, and each plate had to be 50 percent fruits and vegetables. As a result, caterers are shying away.
Caterers are shying away? What about the rest of America? This is true liberal madness
...
City Councilman Charlie Brown, a political independent, has devoted his monthly newsletter to “Food Fight” over the color-coded rules for convention food and is concerned that plans to handle the thousands of demonstrators expected to attend have not been fully thought out.
While Mr. Brown said he expects the city will “cowboy up” and have a successful convention, the lack of resolution about important issues like the demonstrators and food are “the donkey in the room.”
“We are having people say that they will be leaving town,” said Mr. Brown, who fears that the city could be in a no-win situation with the demonstrators — if there is insufficient police presence, the city could be overrun by them; if the police are overly aggressive, they will be criticized as overreacting.
And caterers, expected to feed the 40,000 people coming to town, are throwing up their hands over the food requirements.
“Everything that the Democrats did got off to a late start,” said Peggy Beck, a co-owner of Three Tomatoes Catering. “It was such an ordeal. We’ve jumped through hoops and hoops to bid on their stuff, and we had to have certain color food so the plates would be colorful.” In the end, the parties that she had been bidding on were canceled to save money. “This was some of the silliest stuff ever,” she added.
Nick Agro, head of Whirled Peas Catering, questioned whether the requirement for local organic food could meet cost constraints. “These were fantastic ideas, but I question who is willing to pay for these extra costs,”(emphasis TRM) Mr. Agro said. “My experience is that it is all coming together slowly.”
...
For the Democratic Party, the danger is that a poorly run convention, or one that misses the mark financially, will reflect badly on the party and raise questions about Democratic management skills. And more worrisome for the Obama campaign is that it will be left with the bill for overruns or fund-raising shortfalls, and that the candidate will have to compete in raising money against a convention effort desperate for cash.
If the Democrats are what they eat, then heed the words of Mr. Agro (isn't that a great name for a caterer?!):
“These were fantastic ideas, but I question who is willing to pay for these extra costs,”(emphasis TRM)
Friday, July 4, 2008
CELEBRATE THE EXPERIMENT-HAPPY 4th (now go light a firecracker!)
As a friend of mine says:
HAPPY 232nd!
When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands.
He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers.
He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature.
He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation:
For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states:
For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing taxes on us without our consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury:
For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses:
For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies:
For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments:
For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends.
We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.
New Hampshire: Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton
Massachusetts: John Hancock, Samual Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry
Rhode Island: Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery
Connecticut: Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott
New York: William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris
New Jersey: Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark
Pennsylvania: Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Delaware: Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean
Maryland: Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton
Virginia: George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
North Carolina: William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn
South Carolina: Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton
Georgia: Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton
Source: The Pennsylvania Packet, July 8, 1776
Now, my personal favorite holiday is Halloween. I love the pure chaos of that evening above all other holidays. But following closely behind are the solemnity of Memorial Day and the jubilation of the Fourth. And jubilation it should be, friends. Jubilation and awe. Jubilation for the success of the experiment we began in self-rule 232 years ago. Awe for the beauty and power of the words, the courage of the signers, and the audacity of all those who converted a declaration into a reality between 1775 and 1783.
HAPPY 232nd!
When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands.
He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers.
He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature.
He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation:
For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states:
For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing taxes on us without our consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury:
For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses:
For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies:
For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments:
For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends.
We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.
New Hampshire: Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton
Massachusetts: John Hancock, Samual Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry
Rhode Island: Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery
Connecticut: Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott
New York: William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris
New Jersey: Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark
Pennsylvania: Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Delaware: Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean
Maryland: Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton
Virginia: George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
North Carolina: William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn
South Carolina: Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton
Georgia: Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton
Source: The Pennsylvania Packet, July 8, 1776
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